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The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

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Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#41

Post by ChuckMcM »

Sheesh. I always disagree strongly with this mindset. The false dichotomy that if an idea doesn't immediately raise everyone's standard of living it isn't a "big idea."

There are several technologies on the horizon that can change everything (as Steve Jobs would say)

Real virtual reality - For a big chunk of the world who need to see it to understand it, that will open the doors to a learning, design, and experiencing new things.

Carbon based circuitry - the first all carbon integrated circuit will be 10x faster and 5x more efficient than the best silicon out there. This will put even more amazing compute and sensory power into everyday devices. We chuckle at wizard's wands but they make for a easy to carry universal remote.

Graphene based charge storage. So often we throw energy away in friction brakes because that is easier than reusing it. Charging gear in seconds to run for hours. Recapturing more solar energy both from visible light and latent heat.

Fusion power for unlimited base load power. Completely re-defining the economics of industry, water supplies, transport, and urban HVAC.

Genetic designs, e.coli that synthesize chemicals of our choice without risky refineries. Curing genetic diseases not just treating them, repairing organs, limbs, brains, with targeted stem cells.

Robotic automation that can assemble or disassemble thousands of different products. Reducing waste, eliminating toxic dumping, and allowing us to get ahead of the clean up curve.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#42

Post by nickff »

Kaibeezy wrote: post #25

well covered in The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert Gordon - http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544.html Paul Krugman reviews it here - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/books/review/the-powers-th... bottom line: several key technological leaps can't really ever happen again - electrics, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, telecom - these made huge fundamental changes in living standards - no com…

Given Krugman's history of predicting the future (i.e. saying the internet was incremental like the fax), I view his endorsement as an indictment of the book

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#43

Post by maxerickson »

danbruc wrote: post #37

None of this has translated into meaningful advances in Americans’ standard of living. Regulations have raised the bar for commercializing new ideas while directing a growing share of innovative effort toward goals with benefits, such as cleaner air, that don’t translate into gross domestic product. So cleaner air does not count as improved standard of living just because it does not show up¹ in the gross domestic pr…

It will probably show up as increased medical spending.

The people who live longer due to the regulation will probably need more care to treat things not related to the regulation.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#44

Post by RachelF »

Personally, I don't think we are out of ideas - perhaps we are just trapped in a local minimum for a while.

Much Internet innovation is stifled by two factors:

1. The current economy of the Internet is paid for by advertising, which goes to two main players; Google and Facebook. A system of micropayments never successfully took off, but bitcoin or its successors may yet.

2. Few startup companies aim to IPO anymore like they did in the 1990's. This results in them being bought out and assimilated into larger, less creative established organisations.

Generally, in the USA, startup company formation is now at its lowest level since 1977. In general we have fewer and fewer but larger and larger companies. This allows for less "creative destruction".

RnD investment is more risky than lobbying investment.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#45

Post by sedachv »

Kaibeezy wrote: post #25

well covered in The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert Gordon - http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544.html Paul Krugman reviews it here - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/books/review/the-powers-th... bottom line: several key technological leaps can't really ever happen again - electrics, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, telecom - these made huge fundamental changes in living standards - no com…

> bottom line: several key technological leaps can't really ever happen again - ... - these made huge fundamental changes in living standards - no comparably huge changes remain

I have some ideas for "huge fundamental changes in living standards": cheap (as in almost free) housing, not having to work 40 hours a week. Why are these not on a list of technological possibilities?

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#46

Post by moxious »

borgchick wrote: post #19

I don't think it is the ideas we lack, it is the focus on money. Ideas that won't make tonnes of money don't make it into reality. It's not, "hey, is that idea going to help people/planet/____"? It's, "hey, is that idea going to make me rich?"

That isn't true for everyone. Innovation happens with non profits too.

The difference though, and why you see so much coming out of private companies, is that more people are motivated by money than are motivated by altruism. But there are still plenty motivated by altruism.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#48

Post by panarky »

nickff wrote: post #42
Kaibeezy wrote: post #25

well covered in The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert Gordon - http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544.html Paul Krugman reviews it here - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/books/review/the-powers-th... bottom line: several key technological leaps can't really ever happen again - electrics, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, telecom - these made huge fundamental changes in living standards - no com…

Given Krugman's history of predicting the future (i.e. saying the internet was incremental like the fax), I view his endorsement as an indictment of the book

Krugman was also a very lonely voice going against conventional wisdom and time has proven him right on some big bets.

Contrarian Call #1 - He called bullshit on the rationale for the Iraq war very early.

Contrarian Call #2 - His models showed that the stimulus and bailouts after the financial collapse would not cause runaway inflation.

If you read his review of the book (not an endorsement) you'll see that it's Contrarian Call #3 -- that maybe the bulk of productivity improvements from the internet have already been achieved.

Let's discuss the ideas, evidence and models, not take ad hominem shortcuts.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#49

Post by nickjarboe »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #40
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #12

Have we somehow run out of big ideas before achieving cool scifi stuff, or are we just not allowing people to try out big ideas?

Exactly. Pick up any half-decent sci-fi book, or even rewatch Star Trek: TNG. There's plenty of cool stuff left to be done, and even more improvements to things that are already here. The real problem is that current economy doesn't let those ideas grow.

I'm hoping, as the "duck and cover" generation dies out, we might see a renaissance in nuclear engineering. Some revival is going on at the moment, but civilization only worked on nuclear ideas for about 30 years (1940-1970). We barely touched the surface. I imagine Musk would have a nuclear rocket division, if that was politically acceptable. Maybe a nuclear technology ecosystem is only possible off Earth.

Re: The Economy’s Hidden Problem: We’re Out of Big Ideas

#50

Post by Hondor »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #6

Big ideas take a long time to play out. Take electricity, for example. Maxwell published his equations in 1861. Yet useful new applications of electricity were still coming out in the 1960s (microwave ovens). Or take transistors. They were invented in 1948. What we call "electronics" didn't really start happening until about the 1970s. Moore's Law didn't really slow down until maybe 2005. The problem is that we don't…

Even if we can do sustained fusion, that doesn't make it a game changer. It looks like it will be hugely expensive. It's easy to say "fuel is nearly free and unlimited!" but that's also true of solar power and solar is too expensive to take over the world's energy. Fusion would be worse because it would require more maintenance - such as frequently replacing radiation damaged parts.
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