This AI Boom Will Also Bust • Hacker News Board

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#111

Post by sherbondy » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:26 PM UTC

kken wrote: post #62

dheera wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And before you do mundane data science on your structured data, you should figure out if there is a better way to get cleaner raw data, more data, as well as more accurate data. For example, I predict stereo vision algorithms will die out soon, including deep-learning-assisted stereo vision. It's useful for now but not something to build a business around. Better time-of-flight depth cameras will be here soon enough.…

Already happening. The activity in the TOF-field is crazy. First project Tango smartphone will be out soon.

First consumer Tango phone is already out!

http://shop.lenovo.com/us/en/smartphones/phab-series/phab2-p...

I think it first went on sale Nov. 1 but just started shipping initial batches recently.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#112

Post by robotresearcher » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:27 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #21

whorleater wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't actually think that's true, if the "AI bubble" bursts at some point in the near future, the people who'll be in trouble with be those without formal education to back them up.

> the people who'll be in trouble with be those without formal education to back them up. The people who can't hack it are those who'll be in trouble. Tech has never much been the place where credentials are necessary. Don't specialize and saddle yourself with years of college debt if you're unsure of the field's long term prospects.

Almost every good place pays their CS PhD students enough to squeak by without getting into debt. I wish this was more widely known.

And companies like Google are pretty keen on academic credentials. They've assembled what must be one of the largest collections of PhDs in history.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#113

Post by jimduk » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:27 PM UTC

RushAndAPush wrote: post #82

I've read every comment in this thread and its filled mostly with peoples self congratulatory intellectual views. Nobody, not even Robin Hansen himself has given a good, detailed argument as to why the current progress in Machine learning will stop.

I think the core argument against is the same as it was in 1990 (Dreyfus, Heidegger) - basically AI can solve problems in micro-worlds (chess then, Go now; blocks worlds then image annotation now), but it's not clear these micro-worlds can be fused together, unless they are embodied in an entity who lives in the world. The current deep learning & robotics work is exciting and promising, but it's still a long way from an embodied general intelligence. So - progress might hit the same wall - we can build better subsystems , but not the whole system

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#114

Post by popcorncolonel » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:28 PM UTC

IIIIIII wrote: post #13

jeyoor wrote: post #5

This article matches what I've been seeing anecdotally (especially at smaller tech firms and universities in the Midwest US). I've been hearing more folks in research and industry express the importance of applying simpler techniques (like linear regression and decision trees) before reaching for the latest state-of-the-art approach. See also this response to the author's tweet on the subject: https://twitter.com/and…

Saying that linear regression is easier to do properly than more complex methods like random forests, DL, boosting etc is like saying that people should code assembly instead of python

Can you elaborate?

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#115

Post by DelTaco » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:28 PM UTC

I would argue that it would often be easier to implement a ML solution on regular data than try and clean the data and then use linear regression

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#116

Post by ffwd » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:28 PM UTC

JonnieCache wrote: post #87

ffwd wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the real world, most things are in a maybe state rather than yes/no. Not to get too far afield, but I disagree with this on a certain philosophical level. All states are yes/no. All states of all things should result in a yes/no and be differentiable, with enough data. This doesn't speak to the practicality of that but as far as I can tell the theoretical potential is huge, almost infinite even.

Isn't this just shifting the ambiguity into your choice of state definitions, rather than the states themselves?

But there should be no ambiguity, with enough data. Maybe that means there will always be ambiguity, but maybe it doesn't, especially not with man-made things and complex natural objects, and also if you can contextualize the data over time and 'geographically', there is more 'signal' there to differentiate

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#117

Post by mmkx » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:30 PM UTC

jimduk wrote: post #113

RushAndAPush wrote: post #82

I've read every comment in this thread and its filled mostly with peoples self congratulatory intellectual views. Nobody, not even Robin Hansen himself has given a good, detailed argument as to why the current progress in Machine learning will stop.

I think the core argument against is the same as it was in 1990 (Dreyfus, Heidegger) - basically AI can solve problems in micro-worlds (chess then, Go now; blocks worlds then image annotation now), but it's not clear these micro-worlds can be fused together, unless they are embodied in an entity who lives in the world. The current deep learning & robotics work is exciting and promising, but it's still a long way from…

What if I was that entity?

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#118

Post by mark_l_watson » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:30 PM UTC

I think the boom in AI jobs will go bust, when tools for data cleaning and injection, and for automatically building models will get so good that experts will no longer be required to use them. I have so frequently set up customers with procedures and code for ML, that I have seriously thought of writing a system to replace people like myself.

Until there is real AGI however, there will be jobs for high end AI researchers and developers.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#119

Post by thesimpsons1022 » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:33 PM UTC

tootie wrote: post #79

thesimpsons1022 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you tried it? i own an oculus and every family member i've seen has been shocked and loved it. Obviously the oculus is prohibitively expensive but with the release of Playstation VR i think the mainstream is poised to adopt it. I really believe the next game consoles that come out will simply be vr headsets

It's a novelty act right now. Like Google glass. The tech is incredible, but thus far no one has found a valuable application besides games.

I use my computer through my oculus. instead of being in my shitty student apartment. i get to be in a movie theatre or nice apartment with a massive screen and watch videos on it. I find it pretty compelling.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#120

Post by Animats » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:33 PM UTC

Hard to say. I'm seeing too many billboards near SF for "big data" and "machine learning". AI-type grinding on your stored business data is sometimes useful, but not always profitable. Everybody big already has good ad targeting technology, after all.