This AI Boom Will Also Bust • Hacker News Board

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#91

Post by blackguardx » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:53 PM UTC

agumonkey wrote: post #57

dheera wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And before you do mundane data science on your structured data, you should figure out if there is a better way to get cleaner raw data, more data, as well as more accurate data. For example, I predict stereo vision algorithms will die out soon, including deep-learning-assisted stereo vision. It's useful for now but not something to build a business around. Better time-of-flight depth cameras will be here soon enough.…

ToF depth being single POV and depth infered from successive frames ?

A light source built into the camera is modulated in time. The camera uses this to infer depth. When the modulation is synced up right, the camera can see the light wave "travel" as it illuminates close objects first and then farther ones over successive frames. The camera isn't actually fast enough to capture the light wave traveling, but the timing between the shutter and the light source is shifted by nanoseconds each frame to accomplish this.

They can have problems operating outside because it is hard to make a lightsource brighter than the sun.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#92

Post by agumonkey » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:55 PM UTC

sirclueless wrote: post #84

agumonkey wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ToF depth being single POV and depth infered from successive frames ?

No, that would also qualify as "AI algorithm wizardry" as dheera puts it. Instead it's just a hardware sensor that measures the time at which light arrives at each pixel. Knowing the speed of light you can calculate the depth of each pixel.

Oh I see, a physical "Z-Buffer".

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#93

Post by intrasight » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:57 PM UTC

First, there is no "AI boom" because there is no AI - there is machine learning.

Second, booms that produce real, tangible results don't normally go bust.

Finally, we've only just scratched the surface of what machine learning is capable of delivering, so no bust is to be expected.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#94

Post by bunderbunder » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:57 PM UTC

RushAndAPush wrote: post #82

I've read every comment in this thread and its filled mostly with peoples self congratulatory intellectual views. Nobody, not even Robin Hansen himself has given a good, detailed argument as to why the current progress in Machine learning will stop.

I doubt you'll get that, because nobody thinks that progress in machine learning will stop.

An AI winter doesn't mean that progress stops. It means that businesses and the general public become disillusioned by AI's or ML's failure to live up to the popular hype, and stop throwing so much money at it. The hype then dies down. Research continues, though, until enough progress is made that machine learning starts to produce results that excite the public again, and the cycle goes into another hype phase.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#95

Post by nightski » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:57 PM UTC

bunderbunder wrote: post #66

IIIIIII wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saying that linear regression is easier to do properly than more complex methods like random forests, DL, boosting etc is like saying that people should code assembly instead of python

Simple regression has a lot going for it beyond simply being a simpler model. For example, it produces models that are easy to interpret. That is an enormous advantage if you're looking to use data science to help drive strategic decisionmaking. My personal suspicion is, in a market full of people who are using ever more sophisticated algorithms to ratchet up their customer conversion classifiers' F1 scores by .001 p…

I think calling linear regression simple is misleading. While the algorithm is simple, interpreting the results and not falling into one of the many traps is quite difficult!

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#96

Post by goatlover » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 6:58 PM UTC

RushAndAPush wrote: post #82

I've read every comment in this thread and its filled mostly with peoples self congratulatory intellectual views. Nobody, not even Robin Hansen himself has given a good, detailed argument as to why the current progress in Machine learning will stop.

The progress in AI didn't stop during the past AI winters, it just slowed as funding dried up when people realized the AI at the time couldn't possibly live up to the hype.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#97

Post by goatlover » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:00 PM UTC

bunderbunder wrote: post #94

RushAndAPush wrote: post #82

I've read every comment in this thread and its filled mostly with peoples self congratulatory intellectual views. Nobody, not even Robin Hansen himself has given a good, detailed argument as to why the current progress in Machine learning will stop.

I doubt you'll get that, because nobody thinks that progress in machine learning will stop. An AI winter doesn't mean that progress stops. It means that businesses and the general public become disillusioned by AI's or ML's failure to live up to the popular hype, and stop throwing so much money at it. The hype then dies down. Research continues, though, until enough progress is made that machine learning starts to pr…

Why, as presumably rational agents, is there so much hype with certain technologies, even though past history should have taught us otherwise? Is it all for the VC? Is it the media just needing to sell stories? Usually there are smart, knowledgeable people involved in the hyping. They should know better.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#98

Post by tree_of_item » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:01 PM UTC

kpwagner wrote: post #17

AI is overhyped... sure that's probably true. But data science is here to stay in the same way that computer science is here to stay.

No, I don't think "data science" is nearly as well defined as computer science.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#99

Post by goatlover » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:01 PM UTC

intrasight wrote: post #93

First, there is no "AI boom" because there is no AI - there is machine learning. Second, booms that produce real, tangible results don't normally go bust. Finally, we've only just scratched the surface of what machine learning is capable of delivering, so no bust is to be expected.

There is no AGI, or strong AI. There is weak or narrow AI. AI simply means that if a human performed the task, it would be considered intelligent. So Deep Blue was chess AI, but it wasn't remotely AGI. Same with Watson and every application of AI to date.

In a sense, Artificial Intelligence is the encoding of human intelligence for some task or problem domain in machines.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#100

Post by revelation » Sat, Dec 03, 2016, 7:04 PM UTC

dTal wrote: post #90

dheera wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And before you do mundane data science on your structured data, you should figure out if there is a better way to get cleaner raw data, more data, as well as more accurate data. For example, I predict stereo vision algorithms will die out soon, including deep-learning-assisted stereo vision. It's useful for now but not something to build a business around. Better time-of-flight depth cameras will be here soon enough.…

Stereo vision is obviously highly effective in biology as it has independently evolved a great many times. Time-of-flight may be poised for a renaissance, but it scales badly and is active, not passive. Stereo vision, and its big brother light fields, are far more general and are certainly not going to "die out".

Yet humans produce terrible depth data.