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This AI Boom Will Also Bust

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Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#51
post #39
post #11

When I was at Watson this is the first thing I told every customer: before you start with AI are you already doing the more mundane data science on your structured data? If not, you shouldn't go right away for the shiny object. This said I still believe the article is mistaken in its evaluation of potential impact (and its fuzzy metaphore of pipes). Unstructured or semi-structured or dirty data is much more prevalent…

And before you do mundane data science on your structured data, you should figure out if there is a better way to get cleaner raw data, more data, as well as more accurate data. For example, I predict stereo vision algorithms will die out soon, including deep-learning-assisted stereo vision. It's useful for now but not something to build a business around. Better time-of-flight depth cameras will be here soon enough.…

Right but in this case there is a trade-off: if you don't have the better data now how long before you will? Should you start now (and gain a time advantage at a cost) with what you have or wait for the better data (read sensor/process/technology/people etc).

My experience is that waiting for cleaner data is often like waiting for Godot and will often be a project killer (sometimes justifiably). This is a key issue at the moment in advanced ML: clean large training sets ideal for supervised training are elusive and the companies making real-world advances are pretty much all using available data (and semi-supervised techniques) rather than expensive made up training sets.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#52
post #28

A little off topic but I think the VR boom will bust much more sooner than AI. I can't think of normal people wearing those heavy gears in their normal life. There will be its use cases in specialized applications like education, industry, games but I don't think it will get popular like an iPhone. AR is still OK since it augments real life but there is a long way before it will become mainstream.

Is there a VR boom? There's a heavy hype cycle, is anyone really biting?

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#53
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you tried it? i own an oculus and every family member i've seen has been shocked and loved it. Obviously the oculus is prohibitively expensive but with the release of Playstation VR i think the mainstream is poised to adopt it. I really believe the next game consoles that come out will simply be vr headsets

I have tried it. I owned a PSVR for a month and tried everything available. It was a pretty incredible experience, more immersive than I expected for sure. Most of my family and friends had a great time with it as well. Ultimately, however, I resold it after a month. There are too few interesting full games available. Nearly every game is mostly a short trial, and most of the games are also very experimental and unin…

I sold my SNES a couple of months after it launched, because there weren't enough games. Obviously I had to buy it back later.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#54
post #28

A little off topic but I think the VR boom will bust much more sooner than AI. I can't think of normal people wearing those heavy gears in their normal life. There will be its use cases in specialized applications like education, industry, games but I don't think it will get popular like an iPhone. AR is still OK since it augments real life but there is a long way before it will become mainstream.

I reckon someone said the same about the first mobile phones when they were attached to a suitcase. Who would want to carry a suitcase around just to make calls. Now, comparing the current VR to the iPhone is a huge leap, the VR technology is still evolving and I think it will surely get lighter.

Not really. They were crazy expensive, but had obvious utility. Aspiring yuppies would stick fake antennas to their cars to project that they had one.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#55

Here's why the pipes metaphor is a bad one: we already are doing everything we can and ever will do with pipes. Pipes have been around for a really long time, we know what they are capable of, we've explored all of their uses. OTOH, the current progress in AI has enabled us to do things we couldn't do before and is pointing towards totally new applications. It's not about making existing functionality cheaper, or inc…

> we already are doing everything we can and ever will do with pipes.

I'm pretty sure industrial engineers would disagree here. The romans certainly didn't clean their lead pipes with plasma and neither did they coat them with some fancy nano materials to reduce stickyness.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#56
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you tried it? i own an oculus and every family member i've seen has been shocked and loved it. Obviously the oculus is prohibitively expensive but with the release of Playstation VR i think the mainstream is poised to adopt it. I really believe the next game consoles that come out will simply be vr headsets

I have tried it. I owned a PSVR for a month and tried everything available. It was a pretty incredible experience, more immersive than I expected for sure. Most of my family and friends had a great time with it as well. Ultimately, however, I resold it after a month. There are too few interesting full games available. Nearly every game is mostly a short trial, and most of the games are also very experimental and unin…

What about nature based apps, for coming after work, and just relaxing a bit in nature ? do they give a similar feeling of going into a beach, etc ?

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#57
post #39
post #11

When I was at Watson this is the first thing I told every customer: before you start with AI are you already doing the more mundane data science on your structured data? If not, you shouldn't go right away for the shiny object. This said I still believe the article is mistaken in its evaluation of potential impact (and its fuzzy metaphore of pipes). Unstructured or semi-structured or dirty data is much more prevalent…

And before you do mundane data science on your structured data, you should figure out if there is a better way to get cleaner raw data, more data, as well as more accurate data. For example, I predict stereo vision algorithms will die out soon, including deep-learning-assisted stereo vision. It's useful for now but not something to build a business around. Better time-of-flight depth cameras will be here soon enough.…

ToF depth being single POV and depth infered from successive frames ?

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#58

Here's why the pipes metaphor is a bad one: we already are doing everything we can and ever will do with pipes. Pipes have been around for a really long time, we know what they are capable of, we've explored all of their uses. OTOH, the current progress in AI has enabled us to do things we couldn't do before and is pointing towards totally new applications. It's not about making existing functionality cheaper, or inc…

> I agree that deep nets are overkill for lots of data analysis problems, but the AI boom is not about existing data analysis problems.

This hits the nail on the head for me. The author's observations in the first 9/10 of the article could all be perfectly valid, but the conclusions he draws I. The last two don't follow for exactly this reason.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#59
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

have you tried it? i own an oculus and every family member i've seen has been shocked and loved it. Obviously the oculus is prohibitively expensive but with the release of Playstation VR i think the mainstream is poised to adopt it. I really believe the next game consoles that come out will simply be vr headsets

I have tried it. I owned a PSVR for a month and tried everything available. It was a pretty incredible experience, more immersive than I expected for sure. Most of my family and friends had a great time with it as well. Ultimately, however, I resold it after a month. There are too few interesting full games available. Nearly every game is mostly a short trial, and most of the games are also very experimental and unin…

>There are too few interesting full games available.

That's never stopped consoles from selling. Eventually, those games come out.

Re: This AI Boom Will Also Bust

#60

Here's why the pipes metaphor is a bad one: we already are doing everything we can and ever will do with pipes. Pipes have been around for a really long time, we know what they are capable of, we've explored all of their uses. OTOH, the current progress in AI has enabled us to do things we couldn't do before and is pointing towards totally new applications. It's not about making existing functionality cheaper, or inc…

If there is a curse of our industry, it is almost willful ignorance of just how hard the physical engineering fields are.

The simple things with pipes are simple. Yes. However, to think we haven't made advances, or have no more to make, is borderline insulting to mechanical engineers and plumbers.

Ironically, deep learning will likely help lead to some of those advances.

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