When oil is no longer in demand • Hacker News Board

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#111

Post by codecamper » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:19 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #104

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're going to need a lot of surplus energy to sequester all of the CO2 we've pumped into the atmosphere over the last 100+ years. There is no point at which sequestering CO2 by use of electricity is going to make sense. Until the day that we burn zero CO2 whatsoever, you're better off using the electricity as electricity and thereby burning less carbon than burning it and then trying to get it back. And even at th…

> There is no point at which sequestering CO2 by use of electricity is going to make sense. > Until the day that we burn zero CO2 whatsoever That day will come. And we'll then be at the point where its time to use cheap renewables to pull CO2 back out of the air and store it in a stable state where it can't be burned again.

oh yeah. probably.... not

problem with computer types is we think that high tech will rule and fix all. and that mind boggling high tech is around the corner always.

Then we are surprised when a Neanderthal wins the Presidency who says he WILL burn more coal. doesn't even matter if it's not economic.

Maybe instead we should become more aggressive. Turn off Trump's twitter. Turn off gmail & facebook in red states.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#112

Post by mdpopescu » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:20 AM UTC

thirstysusrando wrote: post #64

Hubbert's Peak "World oil production will start to fall sometime during this decade, never to rise again. In 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970's. Although Hubbert was widely criticized by some oil experts and economists, in 1971 Hubbert's prediction came true. The 100 year period when most of the world's oil is being discovered became known as "Hubbert's Peak". The…

> Hubbert's methods predict a peak in world oil production less than five years away.

According to the wayback machine [1], that page was first written in 2001.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20011121173642/http://www.prince...

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#113

Post by codecamper » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:29 AM UTC

Why does pumping CO2 under water not sound as stable as having carbon locked in a petrochemical under the ground?

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#114

Post by codecamper » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:29 AM UTC

edblarney wrote: post #47

thatcat wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they don't use much, they tend to spill a lot which is worse than burning it.

"they tend to spill a lot which is worse than burning it." Both parts are not correct. First, they spill very little in the grand scheme of things. Second, an 'oil spill' unless it's quite large, is not a hugely damaging thing for the environment. Oil is a plentiful, organic material, found everywhere in nature. It's just not concentrated enough in most places to be extracted. The soil in northern Alberta (an area th…

What sort of technologist thinks like you?

Are you sys admin?

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#115

Post by dx034 » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:32 AM UTC

izend wrote: post #3

Total World Consumption (2017 projection) : 96.92 million barrels per day (up from 92.58 million barrels in 2014) EIA outlook: http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/world.cfm Oil will be in demand for a long time. The demand might peak but headlines like this seem to indicate oil isn't needed anymore. Most people do not realize that 6-7 million barrels of oil per day must be found year over year to replenish the depletion…

For a major shift we don't need to see 0 consumption. If consumption for electricity production and transportation is lowered significantly, this would lower demand enough to allow production on low-cost, traditional wells. We could have oil at A shift in production like this would have major effects. For the order in many emerging countries and the state of the economy and labour markets in developed markets. That the EIA doesn't include a potential collapse of a big US industry sector in their forecast is somehow clear, still doesn't mean that it won't happen.

I don't think that they forecasted the decline of coal as drastically as it happened. Oil could be similar, just much bigger.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#116

Post by cr1895 » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:32 AM UTC

thatcat wrote: post #39

edblarney wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil companies don't emit a whole lot of CO2. You emit the CO2 when you use your car (almost 50% of CO2 emissions are from autos). And a bunch of other industries are responsible for most of the rest of CO2 emissions.

Even if they don't use much, they tend to spill a lot which is worse than burning it.

Crudely (haha) crunching some numbers, if we consider the oil spilled in the US in 2011 (incl. Deepwater Horizon) of 4.95e6 bbl compared to the total oil consumption in 2015 of 7.09e9 bbl, the oil spilled is less than 0.07% of the oil consumed. This, mind you, is considering a massive outlier year for spilled oil. In a more typical year it's an order of magnitude less.

Not to minimize the damage from spilled oil or suggest that it's no problem, but let's keep "spill a lot" in perspective.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#117

Post by dx034 » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:37 AM UTC

solarsavior wrote: post #67

I was wondering about this lately as I live in Houston in an area greatly dependent upon oil and gas. What happens when so many vehicles are charged by solar panels on rooftops (Tesla Energy)? What about oil and gas? Well, it turns out that tons of things are made from oil and gas and once we stop burning it to make vehicles go down the street, we can start using it for other things. I'm unable to find the origin of…

As pointed out in another comment, the use of oil for plastics, streets, etc is less than 5% of overall oil consumption in the US. You could get that kind of output with a tiny domestic industry. With modern refineries, you can get a good control over the output mix and only produce what is needed.I think Houston would be hugely affected by a decline in the oil industry. Even if they can create jobs in the production of renewables, the job profile is often different from working at wells and the huge shipping sector would be largely non-existant.

So even if we increase plastic consumption by 2x (don't really see where that should come from), it's still a potential decline in oil consumption of 90%. Enough to basically destroy several industries (refining, drilling, well maintenance, pipelines, shipping).

Another interesting question is regarding gas stations. You'll still need some stations on interstates to re-charge for long distance trips. But you could basically get rid of all of them in cities. They would continue to exist as convenience stores, but probably with half the number of employees. This would be another huge sector that often employess untrained people, many of whom will likely not be qualified enough to work in battery factories.

Link to EIA report: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_use

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#118

Post by cr1895 » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:40 AM UTC

stuartalex wrote: post #78

A web developer from Aberdeen here. The transition from wealthy to poor in Aberdeen has been instantaneous. Everyone I know in the city has been affected—my fiancee was made redundant, my Dad (after 25 years at BP) and my best mate’s dad (after 25 years at Shell) too. I studied CS at Robert Gordon University, which is cutting academic staff. I also worked at a design and dev shop, but that went bust in December last…

Have you noticed any pick-up from the offshore wind industry? There's certainly some overlap between oil and wind industries, and Scotland is doing quite a lot of offshore wind development nowadays.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#119

Post by tomcam » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:43 AM UTC

shanemhansen wrote: post #4

I live in Utah and I can tell you exactly what happens when oil is no longer in demand. They offer numerous tax breaks per well to encourage exploration and increase production. I believe the term is "corporate welfare". One of the tax breaks has a stated goal of providing tax relief when oil prices are low. https://oilgas.ogm.utah.gov/pub/Publications/Lists/tax_incen... This is the same government attempting to roll…

Solar tax credits are also corporate welfare.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#120

Post by gadders » Thu, Dec 01, 2016, 9:45 AM UTC

I think the best thing of oil no longer being in demand is the US and the UK could end their relationships with Saudi Arabia, and hold them accountable for the vile regime they run there.