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When oil is no longer in demand

economist.com

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Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#71

Post by ojbyrne »

coredog64 wrote: post #29
mjevans wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably temporarily. It'll likely cross a point where more synthetic production methods reach economic viability. The field requires such a great energy density that I suspect only a remarkable breakthrough in energy density for weight would allow a fully electric solution. Hydrogen is also likely out as the storage cells would be under unimaginable stresses. In the long term it might actually incentivize the creati…

Unless someone figures out how to bulldoze the Rocky mountain range, high speed rail as a replacement for coast to coast air travel is a non starter.

I'm curious about why you think the Rocky Mountains would preclude this (as opposed to the distance, where ~ 500 mph via air vs. ~250 mph by train seems like a larger obstacle). Tunnels, and picking a relatively flat route seems to alleviate any concerns about the Rockies.

A route roughly following the I-80 corridor would top out somewhere below 9000 ft[1]. The California high speed rail is already being designed for what I would guess are similar elevations (and perhaps steeper grades)[2].

You could also route through southern Arizona and New Mexico, completely avoiding significant mountains.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_80#Wyoming

2. http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/12/local/la-me-bullet-m...

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#72

Post by erikpukinskis »

edblarney wrote: post #17
shanemhansen wrote: post #4

I live in Utah and I can tell you exactly what happens when oil is no longer in demand. They offer numerous tax breaks per well to encourage exploration and increase production. I believe the term is "corporate welfare". One of the tax breaks has a stated goal of providing tax relief when oil prices are low. https://oilgas.ogm.utah.gov/pub/Publications/Lists/tax_incen... This is the same government attempting to roll…

'Tax breaks' are offered to all sorts of industries. Almost all entertainment in Canada for example, is done nearly tax free. Pharma, energy, small business etc. etc..

And many of those are bad. Ask people in the visual effects industry how they feel about Canada's tax breaks for film production.

These tax breaks incentivize wasting money on travel and uprooting families to trot around the globe chasing favorable tax laws.

It's one thing to set a low tax rate, it's another thing to create the tax equivalent of a "loss leader" as marketing for a broader economy. I'm not saying it's immoral, but it causes chaos in the pricing signals and should be done carefully.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#73

Post by ramy_d »

edblarney wrote: post #17
shanemhansen wrote: post #4

I live in Utah and I can tell you exactly what happens when oil is no longer in demand. They offer numerous tax breaks per well to encourage exploration and increase production. I believe the term is "corporate welfare". One of the tax breaks has a stated goal of providing tax relief when oil prices are low. https://oilgas.ogm.utah.gov/pub/Publications/Lists/tax_incen... This is the same government attempting to roll…

'Tax breaks' are offered to all sorts of industries. Almost all entertainment in Canada for example, is done nearly tax free. Pharma, energy, small business etc. etc..

> Almost all entertainment in Canada for example, is done nearly tax free.

Categorically untrue.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#75

Post by sandworm101 »

edblarney wrote: post #31
graeme wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's particularly perverse, however, to give tax breaks for an industry that has immense negative externalities.

Oil companies don't emit a whole lot of CO2. You emit the CO2 when you use your car (almost 50% of CO2 emissions are from autos). And a bunch of other industries are responsible for most of the rest of CO2 emissions.

>> Oil companies don't emit a whole lot of CO2.

The Saudis certainly don't. That oil is easy to tap and, under some circumstances, be used with little refinement (shipping). But Canadian oil, shale oil, requires massive energy to extract.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#76

Post by EGreg »

btilly wrote: post #55
shanemhansen wrote: post #4

I live in Utah and I can tell you exactly what happens when oil is no longer in demand. They offer numerous tax breaks per well to encourage exploration and increase production. I believe the term is "corporate welfare". One of the tax breaks has a stated goal of providing tax relief when oil prices are low. https://oilgas.ogm.utah.gov/pub/Publications/Lists/tax_incen... This is the same government attempting to roll…

I agree that this is a stupid policy, but there is some attempt at logic behind it. Oil production has the problem that increasing in oil production requires spending money that will only pay off if the price of oil remains high for several years. Cheap producers like Saudi Arabia know this, and so try to make the price fluctuate with enough lows to wipe out expensive oil producers, and enough highs to get rich thems…

And if they didn't, we might have built a sustainable society faster and invested in sustainable energy sooner. It could have been done in the 80s. I know it's scary to imagine Americans driving on smaller cars and bicycles and public transport like Europeans... but we would survive it :)

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#78

Post by stuartalex »

A web developer from Aberdeen here.

The transition from wealthy to poor in Aberdeen has been instantaneous. Everyone I know in the city has been affected—my fiancee was made redundant, my Dad (after 25 years at BP) and my best mate’s dad (after 25 years at Shell) too.

I studied CS at Robert Gordon University, which is cutting academic staff. I also worked at a design and dev shop, but that went bust in December last year.

It’s actually a really bleak time, but this outcome was avoidable.

Although my friends and family all live in Aberdeen, I feel like I can’t sustain myself there. I currently live in Wellington, NZ, which is beautiful, vibrant and diverse.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#79

Post by [deleted] »

edblarney wrote: post #47
thatcat wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they don't use much, they tend to spill a lot which is worse than burning it.

"they tend to spill a lot which is worse than burning it." Both parts are not correct. First, they spill very little in the grand scheme of things. Second, an 'oil spill' unless it's quite large, is not a hugely damaging thing for the environment. Oil is a plentiful, organic material, found everywhere in nature. It's just not concentrated enough in most places to be extracted. The soil in northern Alberta (an area th…

[deleted]

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#80

Post by hx87 »

mikeash wrote: post #20
peterjlee wrote: post #5

I wonder what will happen to the price of jet fuel once electric cars are wide spread. Petroleum production will go down as demand for gasoline will go down while jet fuel demand will probably remain similar. So will that lead to a rise in jet fuel price?

You can see this at work already with gasoline for small planes, which commands a huge premium over automotive gasoline now. Around here, the cost is 2x higher or more. The premium used to be smaller, but when gas prices came down from their $4 high, avgas didn't really follow.

87UL and 93UL aren't much more expensive than automotive gas, since it's pretty much the same thing. It's 100+ octane leaded gas that's expensive, and it'll stay that way until general aviation gets out of its carburetor & fixed timing rut and join the modern world of direct fuel injection and FADEC.
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