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Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

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Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#101

Post by acchow »

adevine wrote: post #6

The answer to this question is quite simple, and the two choice sentences from the article: "And their time frame is what, five years? How do you reconcile those two things: It’s a 100-year problem and a five-year investment cycle." The answer is simply that the private equity firm does not account for the long term, but that the city of Miami Beach will have to—soon. And that is fundamentally what makes climate chan…

Why would I invest in something knowing it will be really hard to find a greater fool?

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#102

Post by acchow »

throwaway98237 wrote: post #66

Why is humanity still pumping unsustainable levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere when all the science points to that being a road that leads to catastrophic consequences which we can't predict?

This is a different problem known as tragedy of the commons.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#103

Post by PeterisP »

hackuser wrote: post #100
PeterisP wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scientists have a clear consensus that if we don't do it, then we'll have certain consequences. However, if we're looking at the actions of everyone who might actually deal with it, then there's a clear consensus that we're actually choosing to face the consequences instead. "Must" implies a degree of certainty, a statement that we will have to deal with it one way or another, and thus we will deal with it - however,…

I generally agree, and don't want to bicker over the wording, except one important point ... > if we're looking at the actions of everyone who might actually deal with it, then there's a clear consensus that we're actually choosing to face the consequences instead. Very many are denying that climate change is happening, or falling back to denying the consequences, or falling back to saying there's nothing we can do a…

At least from the political perspective, I feel that most of it is simply justification and rationalization.

After you've made a decision that for your country/company/party/economic group/whatever the desired course of action is to not work against climate change, then you still have to communicate and "sell" that decision to everyone else, and denying the consequences or saying that we can't do anything has much less backlash than openly saying "fuck you, got mine".

While it's also true that "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!", I believe that most of the involved politicians understand the future consequences (at least the mid-term consequences to their particular area) quite well, but politic communication is about telling whatever will get your goals achieved the best, not about communicating your personal beliefs truthfully.

It's the same thing with jobs - can you imagine any politician telling to a distressed area/industry "no, your jobs are never going to come back" even if that's an obvious truth?

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#104

Post by Camillo »

flukus wrote: post #82
Avshalom wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately that opens the door for invasive saltwater crocodiles. While alligators are mostly super chill crocs are total dick bags.

But then sea level rise will fix the issue. If cities are sticking out like islands then it doesn't leave much habitat for crocs.

But then you have a problem with sharks.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#105

Post by flukus »

Camillo wrote: post #104
flukus wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then sea level rise will fix the issue. If cities are sticking out like islands then it doesn't leave much habitat for crocs.

But then you have a problem with sharks.

That's a fishing trip, not a problem ;)

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#106

Post by Avshalom »

Camillo wrote: post #104
flukus wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then sea level rise will fix the issue. If cities are sticking out like islands then it doesn't leave much habitat for crocs.

But then you have a problem with sharks.

Flukus is right: sharks are nice for sport fishing, relatively inconsequential for tourism.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#107

Post by hackuser »

PeterisP wrote: post #103
hackuser wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree, and don't want to bicker over the wording, except one important point ... > if we're looking at the actions of everyone who might actually deal with it, then there's a clear consensus that we're actually choosing to face the consequences instead. Very many are denying that climate change is happening, or falling back to denying the consequences, or falling back to saying there's nothing we can do a…

At least from the political perspective, I feel that most of it is simply justification and rationalization. After you've made a decision that for your country/company/party/economic group/whatever the desired course of action is to not work against climate change, then you still have to communicate and "sell" that decision to everyone else, and denying the consequences or saying that we can't do anything has much le…

I think you are right; I got caught taking their arguments at face value, a mistake I strenuously try to avoid!

> can you imagine any politician telling to a distressed area/industry "no, your jobs are never going to come back" even if that's an obvious truth?

One thing I like about Bill Clinton is that he actually would say that, at least sometimes. Few have that political courage.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#108

Post by bzbarsky »

cjlars wrote: post #17
finnh wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's time to do some research and figure out the appropriate short.

The inflection point, if there is one, is likely a decade or more away. Real estate losses will be unique to each area. So you're more likely to see a smattering of "Hurricane Katrina Moments" than a wholesale reversal in the financial markets a la 2008. Deep out of the money options on overexposed instruments is a plausible position to take here, especially during the ~6 week hurricane season. Another thing to note…

Cliff-front property may have its own issues. For example, the cliff parts of Cape Cod are eroding by an average of 3 feet per year according to http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/staffpages/boldale/capecod/ques... -- and that link claims that sea level rise would be expected to speed up erosion.

Of course if you pick sturdier cliffs you might be better off.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#109

Post by throwaway98237 »

jcranmer wrote: post #86
throwaway98237 wrote: post #66

Why is humanity still pumping unsustainable levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere when all the science points to that being a road that leads to catastrophic consequences which we can't predict?

What would you, personally, give up to make that happen?

I'm vegan. I ride public transit when possible, and moved next door to my job so I don't need to commute on a daily basis, I buy used whenever possible, and try not to buy stuff I don't need. I take carbon into consideration when making holiday plans (a few plane rides can double a persons carbon footprint). I compost. Future changes I'm trying to make include going to local farmers market and growing more of my own food, switching to solar power. But, realistically, I'm only one person. If everyone went vegan today, gave up cars (for bikes) and planes (for electric trains), and we started growing 51% of our food locally we'd be well on our way to meeting carbon emission reduction goals. The technology has been around for awhile. The will to make the choices has not. Which is why, I'm a pessimist on these issues.

Re: Why Are Developers Still Pouring Billions into Waterlogged Miami?

#110

Post by throwaway98237 »

jcranmer wrote: post #86
throwaway98237 wrote: post #66

Why is humanity still pumping unsustainable levels of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere when all the science points to that being a road that leads to catastrophic consequences which we can't predict?

What would you, personally, give up to make that happen?

I'm vegan. I ride public transit when possible, and moved next door to my job so I don't need to commute on a daily basis, I buy used whenever possible, and try not to buy stuff I don't need. I take carbon into consideration when making holiday plans (a few plane rides can double a persons carbon footprint). I compost. Future changes I'm trying to make include going to local farmers market and growing more of my own food, switching to solar power. But, realistically, I'm only one person. If everyone went vegan today, gave up cars (for bikes) and planes (for electric trains), and we started growing 51% of our food locally we'd be well on our way to meeting carbon emission reduction goals. The technology has been around for awhile. The will to make the choices has not. Which is why, I'm a pessimist on these issues.
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