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Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

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241–250 of 352 posts

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#241
This is quite a news. I just looked at renting page of my formal apartment in Wayback Machine. They had listed 3 bedroom + garage at $2200 in Puget Sound area from January to May. Now its $2100. Not a big decrease but I don't recall I had ever seen a decrease during past 5 year or so. It's actually quite shocking.

This probably means that the real estate price cycle theory is right. First house prices goes up so construction boom starts and then supply overfloods the market and suddenly there are no takers which brings rent as well as house prices down. It's closed loop with delays so you get overshoots and undershoots. This can be mark of price fall for next 3-5 years in real estate as well rents.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#242
post #122

Los Angeles though... :( One of my friends just moved here and is sharing a 5-bedroom home with 25 other people. I thought he was bullshitting me, and I still couldn't believe it when I went over. He's paying $600 a month to share a bedroom with four other guys. He told me it was the best thing he could find on 1-day notice. He pays for rent online, and he has no idea who the actual owner is, nor who is actually rece…

I lived in Pasadena just 30 min out of LA and paid 1000/Mo for a 1 be below the 210. This was 4 years ago so I assume rates are up. Just checked CL and see 1br in a townhome for rent for 900 in a decent area. Why would you share with 4 other people for 600... Is it that difficult to put away an extra 300 and commute 30 min?

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#243
post #17

I know nothing about the San Francisco housing market apart from what I've heard in discussions here on HN. The received wisdom here seemed to be that powerful NIMBY lobbies in SF were preventing needed development and causing the sky-high rent. But this article is talking about an "historic construction boom". Did something change regarding development in SF? Or was the NIMBY effect always a bit over-stated? Anyone…

The “historic construction boom” just seems historic because it followed a historic construction bust, so the first order derivative is pretty high. And it’s all concentrated in a few neighborhoods right outside reporters’ offices, so it seems more dramatic than it actually is.

Even so, the construction rate now is not matching the rate in the early 1960s[0]. Back then, the bad word was “urban renewal,” and the people and politicians of San Francisco managed to stop it. Unsurprisingly, that only exacerbated the housing crisis, setting off the exponential rise in prices that has now reached unbelievable levels[1].

So, nothing of substance has changed. NIMBYs and their supervisors have still effectively outlawed affordable housing, so financiers have not been willing to fund projects until the market-rate prices reached so far into the stratosphere that they could expect to make a profit. So they make only super-expensive housing, with some “affordable” units begrudgingly provided to lottery winners as the community organizers have forced them to, which feeds back into the common misperception that developers are only willing to build super-expensive housing. Which provides political support for more restrictions, which raise the costs, which slow construction, which raises the prices, in an insane feedback loop.

[0]http://www.spur.org/publications/urbanist-article/2012-12-18...

[1]https://experimental-geography.blogspot.com/2016/05/employme...

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For further comparison I pay hundreds less for an upscale (but not top of the line) 2 bedroom apartment in a Minneapolis suburb.

And I pay a $800 a month mortgage for a 3500 square fort castle with 5 beds and 4 baths on 1/2 acre in BF Indiana. Doesn't mean I am getting a good deal though, just where I happen to be. I would way rather be paying more for a city home :)

I'm in the opposite situation. I moved to Washington from a small Rust Belt city. The last house I toured there was a historic 5500 ft^2 Victorian 6 bd 5 bath, in the most desirable location, and thus with near instant liquidity. It was listed for $500k. With a local bank, which knows the housing market in the area, the mortgage would have been less than $2000/mo.

Considering the inexpensive housing, an excellent Jesuit preparatory school for $7k/year, the low cost of living, and the huge scholarships to the city's University, a family of five could live extremely comfortably for $150,000-$200,000/yr. Couples with occupations such as lawyer, doctor, engineer, or small business owner live like they're downright rich.

I suppose it's the old adage that keeps me in DC: You could sell your house here and live like a king anywhere else. But you never will, because you're afraid you'll never be to get back.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#245

This is quite a news. I just looked at renting page of my formal apartment in Wayback Machine. They had listed 3 bedroom + garage at $2200 in Puget Sound area from January to May. Now its $2100. Not a big decrease but I don't recall I had ever seen a decrease during past 5 year or so. It's actually quite shocking. This probably means that the real estate price cycle theory is right. First house prices goes up so cons…

It's fascinating that it's happening at a time when wage growth across the board is at a eight to nine year high (and plausibly heading even higher so long as unemployment remains where it is). So whatever supply is coming on-line, is entirely cancelling out that wage growth.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#246
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this just called a hostel? That just sounds like your friend is living in a hostel dorm. $20/day actually sounds cheap now that I'm looking at hostel rates in LA: http://www.hostelworld.com/search?search_keywords=Los+Angele...

The loan repayments on my three bedroom house are AU$47 a day, or about US$35. ($215,000 purchase price in 2016).

Is your $215k Aussie house in close to town in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane? There are plenty of cheap houses in America too, living in LA/SF/NYC is a luxury that people pay a premium for.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#247
post #169
post #122

Los Angeles though... :( One of my friends just moved here and is sharing a 5-bedroom home with 25 other people. I thought he was bullshitting me, and I still couldn't believe it when I went over. He's paying $600 a month to share a bedroom with four other guys. He told me it was the best thing he could find on 1-day notice. He pays for rent online, and he has no idea who the actual owner is, nor who is actually rece…

Isn't this just called a hostel? That just sounds like your friend is living in a hostel dorm. $20/day actually sounds cheap now that I'm looking at hostel rates in LA: http://www.hostelworld.com/search?search_keywords=Los+Angele...

I've been to the Adventurer Hotel which is the first on that list a long, long time ago. I would not recommend it. I had a layover at LAX, their bus pulled up right in front of me, and some kids said get on. The staff, all the girls were from Russia or Poland and the guys were from New Zealand, Australia, and one bloke from England, on the bus made a pit stop at the liqueur store. They bought at least 12 liters of booze. There wasn't a bar by the pool like in the pictures. They just set up a table by the pool. When the bus rolled in there was a prostitute on roller skates across the street and one prostitute half a block up 6 or 7 months pregnant. One guy says looks like roller girl is working tonight. The staff lived in the hotel rooms. This was during the Gulf War and the bus picked up two kids serving in the British army who just got a couple weeks leave. The Australian guy who worked at the front desk set up an elaborate plan to hook the soldiers up with a couple of the Russian girls who were waitresses in the bar. Early in the night he rounded a few of us up to pretend the party was in one of the empty hotel rooms. The staff were just people travelling from other countries working under the table. They just partied and partied with everyone who stayed there. He invited two Russian girls and the soldiers to join all of us in the room. As soon as they all got there the rest of us left. It worked because they ended up hanging out together all night. It just kept going on like that. It was wild and out of control. Frat parties are tame compared to what was going on there that night. There is no reason ever to stay there. If you do you will get bed bugs or hepatitis.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#248
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this just called a hostel? That just sounds like your friend is living in a hostel dorm. $20/day actually sounds cheap now that I'm looking at hostel rates in LA: http://www.hostelworld.com/search?search_keywords=Los+Angele...

I've been to the Adventurer Hotel which is the first on that list a long, long time ago. I would not recommend it. I had a layover at LAX, their bus pulled up right in front of me, and some kids said get on. The staff, all the girls were from Russia or Poland and the guys were from New Zealand, Australia, and one bloke from England, on the bus made a pit stop at the liqueur store. They bought at least 12 liters of bo…

Man, life was a lot more colorful before we started spending all our time behind a screen.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#249
post #139
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> rents are set by wages as you have to pay them out of your wages. Are you implying that there's some sort of grand-scale collusion on rent prices? If most rent takers think "hey, the median salary is X so I'll just charge X * 0.33" then what's stopping another rent taker from drastically undercutting that price?

You could argue that home prices are tied to wages and rent is tied to home prices.

I'd like to see that argument. The median home in California is not by any means affordable. The median home in many other states is absolutely affordable. Furthermore---and back to my original argument---suppose that home prices are X * C where X is the median salary and C is some number between 0 and 1. What's stopping someone from drastically undercutting the artificially-high home price?

I have no reason to believe that either home prices or rent are set by wages.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The loan repayments on my three bedroom house are AU$47 a day, or about US$35. ($215,000 purchase price in 2016).

Is your $215k Aussie house in close to town in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane? There are plenty of cheap houses in America too, living in LA/SF/NYC is a luxury that people pay a premium for.

There are no decent houses anywhere near the major cities of Australia to be had for anywhere near $215k. The median house price in Australia is $659k. The apartment median is $518k.
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