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Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

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Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Have there been any experiments in legislating ceilings for housing prices? If so, what has been the effect? As Assar Lindbeck put it, "next to bombing, rent control seems in many cases to be the most efficient technique so far known for destroying cities." For instance, in 1970s when the Bronx was burning, a major contributing factor was New York City rent control. In some neighborhoods of the Bronx and in Harlem,…

it was easier to just walk away and let the building rot than to take any action to repair it and continue to collect rent-controlled rents. My parents and I lived in a rent-controlled apt in Manhattan in the early 1970s. Rent was $80/month. The 1973 oil embargo happened and heating oil prices went up. Oh, did I forget to mention that the $80 rent included heat?!!!! Basically things were so bad for the landlord that…

Ironically, rent control may have been the single biggest factor leading to the consolidation of ownership of New York real estate by the ultra-wealthy.

If you were a landlord, you couldn't afford to pay enough to buy your tenants out of their apartments. But massively wealthy investors and big banks could - and they did. They bought the rent-controlled apartments that were money pits for small landlords, and then paid large sums of cash (under the table) to the tenants to get them to leave. Once the tenants had left, the apartments could be easily converted back to unregulated, market-rate apartments.

Small landlords literally couldn't afford to own the buildings, because they had to spend money to operate them and received next-to-nothing in rent. So, they had no choice but to sell them to the investors and banks who were well-capitalized enough to negotiate these buyouts, resulting in the mass consolidation of real-estate by a relatively small number of owners.

And of course, the original goal of rent control (ensuring that long-time residents would continue living in the same neighborhoods) went completely out the window, because it was in their best financial interest at that point to move. And the secondary goal (providing "affordable" housing) was gone long before that

> We moved out of the city the next year. But in retrospect we should have bought our apt (for about $7,000) when the building went coop/condo.

In retrospect, you should probably have kept living there as tenants. If you were there in the early 1970s, you'd have been grandfathered into rent control, and rent control in New York (as opposed to rent stabilization) is insanely profitable for the tenants, even if you weren't offered the type of buyout that I described above.

It'd have taken you 7 years just to break even on the savings in rent by itself, but between maintenance costs (which your landlord was required to give you for free) and property taxes (easily more than you were paying in rent), you'd probably still come out ahead today if you'd just stayed on as tenants.

Of course, you'd have to live there continuously and never move, and the apartment wouldn't be yours to pass on in inheritance. But the money you'd save would be worth way more than that.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#202
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So here's the results[1] from Zillow for a 2BR for $2500 or less in an actual Boston zipcode. These aren't all the results, as it limits the results to 500. If you're not looking for a managed, new luxury apartment, it's tremendously easy to find. Moreover, if you go on Craigslist, you'll find far, far more. Zillow listings are almost always represented by a realtor, broker or property management company so it's only…

They're mostly in Brighton and way deep Dorchester. The commonwealth ave one is as ridiculous as the same price being advertised for a real 2br in a doorman building in Chelsea. This is akin to measuring salaries by the high end of glass door. Sure. Someone may have gotten that price, or it could be a lie, but you won't.

Yep, flawed study. The stuff in Brighton, deep Dorchester, Hyde Park and Roxbury should be thrown out since a lot of it is very much not TOD and you'd barely know you were living in Boston.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#203
post #122

Los Angeles though... :( One of my friends just moved here and is sharing a 5-bedroom home with 25 other people. I thought he was bullshitting me, and I still couldn't believe it when I went over. He's paying $600 a month to share a bedroom with four other guys. He told me it was the best thing he could find on 1-day notice. He pays for rent online, and he has no idea who the actual owner is, nor who is actually rece…

Woah, I knew about things being bad in the USA, but I didn't know living conditions are going towards third-world standards :/ Where I live (The Netherlands) there are laws that even protect foreign workers (i.e. from Poland) from all being stuffed in a single room. At this point it's starting to look like even jail cells have more room and privacy.

The problem isn't: "We are an exploited underclass unable to live in reasonable conditions." The problem is more along the lines of a gold rush type movement of people. Where large cities are attracting a large influx of people increasing demand on housing faster than it can be corrected.

Plenty of inexpensive housing in Ohio. Not so much along the California coast.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#204
post #122

Los Angeles though... :( One of my friends just moved here and is sharing a 5-bedroom home with 25 other people. I thought he was bullshitting me, and I still couldn't believe it when I went over. He's paying $600 a month to share a bedroom with four other guys. He told me it was the best thing he could find on 1-day notice. He pays for rent online, and he has no idea who the actual owner is, nor who is actually rece…

I've heard of "hacker house" type places in the Bay Area which sound exactly like this. I think the rate was something like $30/day or so. I've also heard of operators of these places who will sign a regular rental contract with a landlord, "convert" the place to such a high density dorm, milk it until the landlord finds out, and when the landlord does, apologize, end the contract, then find another rental to rinse a…

Same to us average people living in Beijing. I share a house with four other people,and one of the single bed room was just separated by boards.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#205

Clicked on that list hoping to see good news in Seattle... turns out we're up more than any other city in the top 10. Sigh. There actually is a decent amount of housing construction in progress but it seems like it's not nearly enough.

Also Seattle Resident, has a few things going against it: * Highly constricted physical space, poor public transit and almost continuous traffic problems due to natural bottlenecks. This means people have to live close or else risk a 60 min+ commute one way. * Single family homes drive a lot of property demand here, not just luxury apartments. Those are still expensive and hard to come by, and they are not building m…

> poor public transit

I disagree. It's not perfect, and it's definitely no Manhattan subway system, but I live car-free in Seattle while working on the other side of the lake and it has been pretty awesome. The trolleybuses are smooth, there are a bunch of regional express routes, and--especially after the prop 1 passage in 2014--the span of service and on-time performance have both increased.

If your measure of "quality of public transit" is defined in miles of light rail, yes, Seattle's is poor. But the buses, in my experience (though I don't usually travel during traditional commute hours), are a great companion to the light rail that we do have.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#206
post #33

Have there been any experiments in legislating ceilings for housing prices? If so, what has been the effect?

Price controls in competitive markets are usually a bad, bad idea. Rent controls, for instance, are famous among economists for managing to both disrupt rent markets while failing to achieve their desired outcome, which is helping poor tenants. The effect of a price ceiling is often just to shrink the supply of any units whose price would be above the price ceiling, while consumer queue themselves. It would be the sa…

> And since the opportunity cost of time of richer folks is lower, not to mention that they're more likely to be socially connected, they end up displacing poorer consumers

Your conclusion is correct, but this should say "since the opportunity cost of time for richer folks is higher".

People who earn more have a higher opportunity cost of time, which means (all things equal) that they will have fewer children and choose residences with lower commute times than those who make less money.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#207
post #181

The rents are astounding to me as an Atlanta area resident. My fully loaded mortgage+escrow payment on an entire 3 BR house with a full basement (in which I have an office and wired for Cat6 ethernet) is less than $1100/month. There are tons of tech companies within commuting distance and even more remote work opportunities as a developer. Chances are good that we'll finally have gigabit fiber to the home within a ye…

> The rents are astounding to me as an Atlanta area resident. My fully loaded mortgage+escrow payment...

I see this a lot of the time when rents for certain areas of the country come up. My friends in Dallas and Austin say the same thing. FWIW, I own a duplex unit inside the city of Seattle, so my views may also be a little skewed.

My usual response is, "yes, but then I'd have to live in [other city]." There are a lot of advantages to living where I do, in my opinion; that's why I chose to live there. The weather is a not-insignificant consideration. I don't ever have to look at a weather forecast and see that the expected high is 100F-or-above for the next month. Natural beauty is another. Local culture is yet another.

One other point about the cost of housing: you wrote "Atlanta area," so I imagine you're OTP. By comparison, I'm paying $1,600/month to own my 2BR house inside Seattle, and I don't begrudge any cent of it. Mortgages inside Atlanta proper are possibly in the same range.

So it's not a question of being astounding or out of the ordinary, just different life choices.

> Chances are good that we'll finally have gigabit fiber to the home

...and I have gigabit fiber, too. ;)

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#208

Clicked on that list hoping to see good news in Seattle... turns out we're up more than any other city in the top 10. Sigh. There actually is a decent amount of housing construction in progress but it seems like it's not nearly enough.

I can't help but wonder if Seattle is increasing and SF is decreasing at least in part because so many people are moving from the latter to the former.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also Seattle Resident, has a few things going against it: * Highly constricted physical space, poor public transit and almost continuous traffic problems due to natural bottlenecks. This means people have to live close or else risk a 60 min+ commute one way. * Single family homes drive a lot of property demand here, not just luxury apartments. Those are still expensive and hard to come by, and they are not building m…

> poor public transit I disagree. It's not perfect, and it's definitely no Manhattan subway system, but I live car-free in Seattle while working on the other side of the lake and it has been pretty awesome. The trolleybuses are smooth, there are a bunch of regional express routes, and--especially after the prop 1 passage in 2014--the span of service and on-time performance have both increased. If your measure of "qua…

Seattle buses are okay compared to suburban non-cities like Phoenix or Silicon Valley.

They're a disaster compared to other desirable world power cities with functioning public transit, though. Seattle's transit system would be considered a disgrace anywhere in Europe or Asia, or even most parts of the northeastern US.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#210
post #181

The rents are astounding to me as an Atlanta area resident. My fully loaded mortgage+escrow payment on an entire 3 BR house with a full basement (in which I have an office and wired for Cat6 ethernet) is less than $1100/month. There are tons of tech companies within commuting distance and even more remote work opportunities as a developer. Chances are good that we'll finally have gigabit fiber to the home within a ye…

> The rents are astounding to me as an Atlanta area resident. My fully loaded mortgage+escrow payment... I see this a lot of the time when rents for certain areas of the country come up. My friends in Dallas and Austin say the same thing. FWIW, I own a duplex unit inside the city of Seattle, so my views may also be a little skewed. My usual response is, "yes, but then I'd have to live in [other city]." There are a lo…

I'm in Alpharetta, which is a tech center in its own right by some standards. Housing prices jump $300k across the street from my neighborhood. So yes, prices can go really, really high around these parts.
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