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Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

businessinsider.com

41–50 of 352 posts

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#41
Well, duh. The dumb money has been funding way too many apartment projects.

Where I live (Albany, NY), they just built thousands of rental units within a 15 mile radius. In one example, they are trying to rent a "luxury" two bedroom for $2500/mo, when you have a much nicer home a few blocks away for $200k+$50k for a fancy kitchen, etc.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#42

Clicked on that list hoping to see good news in Seattle... turns out we're up more than any other city in the top 10. Sigh. There actually is a decent amount of housing construction in progress but it seems like it's not nearly enough.

I had a similar reaction for Washington DC. Maybe when Trump fires all of the government workers, I'll get a chance at living in a decent place.

/S/

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#43
post #17

I know nothing about the San Francisco housing market apart from what I've heard in discussions here on HN. The received wisdom here seemed to be that powerful NIMBY lobbies in SF were preventing needed development and causing the sky-high rent. But this article is talking about an "historic construction boom". Did something change regarding development in SF? Or was the NIMBY effect always a bit over-stated? Anyone…

Speculation that this is the case in SF, but is an effect I've seen: You can get a dip in average rent without (sufficiently) dropping bottom quartile rents, which is what NIMBYism tends to block, by having a lot of nice condos built. The top quartile of rents dips heavily as places jockey for condo buyers, everyone moves in to a nicer place as the wave spreads, but the price at the bottom remains (mostly) the same (…

This sounds plausible, and it chimes with the article's statement that the new supply is at the high end. Thanks! If people were only blocking certain kinds of development, that would explain why low-end prices stay high even while there's a lot of construction causing the median price to drop.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#44
The rent concessions are the real leading indicator. As every month of "free rent" in a 1 year lease lowers gross rent by 8% (4% for a 2 year lease, and 2.7% for a 3 year lease) As a strategy it assumes that the rent will come back up after the lease period. When it doesn't the rents actually get lowered to avoid being the highest rent in the list.

Also there is an impact on increasing AirBnB regulation both from cities and from landlords. Now there are often very explict callouts in a rental lease that specifically mentions getting money for the use of your apartment from non-family members. That means you're not going to be able to monetize that second bedroom to pare back your housing expense.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#46
post #6

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You already weren't supporting this website. You want them to produce content and then give it to you for free while using Adblock.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#47

Have there been any experiments in legislating ceilings for housing prices? If so, what has been the effect?

There are two kinds of real estate "prices": rental rates and property sales prices.

Ceilings on property sales prices are very rare. Probably the most common example is resale price caps on government sponsored housing for lower income buyers.

Price ceilings on rent are more common but still rare. This is commonly known as rent control.

Like all price caps the result is shortages in varying degrees depending on how binding the ceiling is. If the rent/price is set below operating/construction costs you will see very little avalabilty/construction. On the other hand if the ceiling is set well above the "natural" rent/price there will be little if any impact. In between you will see increasing shortages as the ceiling decreases.

This is generally basic economics but can get pretty complex depending on the details of the specific policy. Taking thsee details into account as well as the unusual nature or real estate (durability, immobility, etc.) the actual results have lined up very well with the theoretical predictions.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#49
post #17

I know nothing about the San Francisco housing market apart from what I've heard in discussions here on HN. The received wisdom here seemed to be that powerful NIMBY lobbies in SF were preventing needed development and causing the sky-high rent. But this article is talking about an "historic construction boom". Did something change regarding development in SF? Or was the NIMBY effect always a bit over-stated? Anyone…

Luxury highrise condos and apartments have been showing weakness all year due to oversupply. Deeded land single detached homes (where the strongest coalitions of SF NIMBY lobbies reside) are still very supply constrained and are still very strong wrt price. This is the source of the discrepancy you're talking about.

Source: friend who's been in Bay Area real estate for over a decade.

Re: Rents are plunging in the most expensive U.S. markets

#50

Amazing, supply and demand actually works! Someone should tell all the protestors who opposed construction of new luxury condos because they thought it would somehow increase rents.

It's unlikely to slow down San Francisco's unstoppable march towards the most legislated society in America.
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