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Germany’s Chinese investment problem

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Re: Germany’s Chinese investment problem

#11
post #7

I am surprised to see Hacker News turning into China News recently.

Warning: Gross oversimplification and misrepresentation of facts ahead

There is an apparent trend of Planet Earth turning into Planet China recently.

Whether this trend is real, whether it will continue, whether you or I believe in it - who knows.

Re: Germany’s Chinese investment problem

#12
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think China is going to be greatest civilization... or that's their aim. And with their population and level of growth they may very well get there.

They will have to become more democratic and accountable to their population first. Up to now they have been able to buy off their middle classes with rising incomes, once that stops as it inevitably will those people will start calling for more representation.

The CP clearly believes that as long as growth is maintained and people's lives improve, there won't be any political resistance. I'm inclined to agree.

We have a lot of examples of people protesting and calling for more representation when they're not doing well economically but do we have any examples, any evidence, any indication at all of people doing that when things go well economically?

The potential loss of quality of life associated with such resistance failing is massive and the probability of a failure is high. The people have too much to lose by calling for more representation and honestly not that much to gain.

Re: Germany’s Chinese investment problem

#13
post #3

"Oh woe is us. Who will save us from downing in all this Chinese money." There were exactly the same concerns about Japanese investment back in the 80s. Now doing business with Japanese firms and companies like Sony owning major American firms is just natural. They're not weird alien creatures from space anymore, they're our business partners and investors. It's normal. The same will happen with China.

Related News from last week:

The government had cleared the deal on Sept. 8 but Aixtron said that the Economy Ministry had now canceled the clearance certificate for Fujian Grand Chip Investment Fund LP (FGC), a Chinese investment fund controlled by businessman Zhendong Liu, and planned to reopen a review of the takeover. The decision to rescind the approval was based on “previously unknown security-related information,” Germany’s Deputy Economy Minister Matthias Machnig told German daily newspaper Die Welt, without being more specific.

Re: Germany’s Chinese investment problem

#14
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think China is going to be greatest civilization... or that's their aim. And with their population and level of growth they may very well get there.

They will have to become more democratic and accountable to their population first. Up to now they have been able to buy off their middle classes with rising incomes, once that stops as it inevitably will those people will start calling for more representation.

Possibly, but again Japan provides a case study of an alternate possible future for China. Japan also had a massive property bubble which burst spectacularly. It also had a single party with an effective monopoly on political power. Yet they avoided social upheaval and stayed in power, even in a democracy, by drowning the government in debt for decades. AT first the 90's were referred to as the 'lost decade', but even now they're still not out of the woods 26 years in. I think a similar scenario may play out in China. Today's excesses will be paid for by a generation of stagnation.

Interestingly, Trump's economic plan will likely have the same effect in the end. High spending and low taxes will inevitable inflate government debt. In the short term that will create economic stimulus, the current generation of Americans might benefit, but America may well be looking at persistent stagnation for a generation or more after.

Re: Germany’s Chinese investment problem

#16
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will have to become more democratic and accountable to their population first. Up to now they have been able to buy off their middle classes with rising incomes, once that stops as it inevitably will those people will start calling for more representation.

The CP clearly believes that as long as growth is maintained and people's lives improve, there won't be any political resistance. I'm inclined to agree. We have a lot of examples of people protesting and calling for more representation when they're not doing well economically but do we have any examples, any evidence, any indication at all of people doing that when things go well economically? The potential loss of q…

This is the point I'm trying to make, they have had a long period of economic growth, people will put up with a lot if they see their situation is getting better. The question is what happens when the growth flounders.

Re: Germany’s Chinese investment problem

#17
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will have to become more democratic and accountable to their population first. Up to now they have been able to buy off their middle classes with rising incomes, once that stops as it inevitably will those people will start calling for more representation.

The CP clearly believes that as long as growth is maintained and people's lives improve, there won't be any political resistance. I'm inclined to agree. We have a lot of examples of people protesting and calling for more representation when they're not doing well economically but do we have any examples, any evidence, any indication at all of people doing that when things go well economically? The potential loss of q…

A good leader keeps his people's bellies full and their ambitions low... or so the tao goes.

Re: Germany’s Chinese investment problem

#18
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CP clearly believes that as long as growth is maintained and people's lives improve, there won't be any political resistance. I'm inclined to agree. We have a lot of examples of people protesting and calling for more representation when they're not doing well economically but do we have any examples, any evidence, any indication at all of people doing that when things go well economically? The potential loss of q…

This is the point I'm trying to make, they have had a long period of economic growth, people will put up with a lot if they see their situation is getting better. The question is what happens when the growth flounders.

People put up with a lot in America. That's mostly because of money. Take away the money and you will have problems.
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