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Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

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Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#11
post #9

If you haven't done it in 6 years, I don't think you care enough about this particular idea. I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong though :)

If I didn't care I think I would have shrugged it off a long time ago. Not trying to do it until recently has been more the result of massive amount of change in this area which I found I just barely kept up with. I just barely got to the point a year ago or so where I had time to reflect and think how this can translate into something useful.

So it was more like 6 years observation and thinking in a sort of real-world lab experiment, and only the last year or so of "apply lessons learned".

But since I'm not a programmer, and most programmers I've come across are working on their own projects, I couldn't figure out exactly how to proceed ... and based on the limited feed back I got, whether it was even worth proceeding or if I was just fooling myself and seeing an oasis.

Plus regardless of whether I cared enough, now that I found this out I realize it's a valid thing to more than just me. So now I care more. It's just been a long, unrewarding (except the intellectual curiosity part), clumsy, guideless trip so far.

My "adult" self tells me to give up and move on, or perhaps profit from it by working for "the man" ... but then again, what if I wind up 10 years ago in a situation where I say, "Dammit - I should have tried for just one more year - but instead I gave up and now look what happened - it took off right after I gave up and somebody else is doing it."

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#12
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's the thing. My life now sucks because I've spent most of my spare time researching this. And progress has been so slow. Friends have drifted away, etc. If I give up and sell out, at least I'll have a comfy position at a respectable company where people smarter than me would respect what I have to offer because I have 6 years worth of thinking about the problem on them. But the startup route ... hell I can't…

If you have valuable knowledge that no one else has (or can easily get), and you need programmers, why don't you share what you can here and see if anyone wants to join you? Presumably you can share enough to give people an idea of what you are doing?

If I could find some programmers who won't dismiss my value after I've transferred my insights, I'd gladly do it. But judging from the thinking processes of what I see on posts here ...

Just to give an example, a few days ago a "bored developer" posted a post saying he was looking for good ideas. Whenever I see MBA/Financial-types posting on Hacker News looking for programmers, the response is usually, "Why should I partner with you - what value do you offer since you can't code?"

So I asked a simple question on this post: Suppose I share some ideas with you that you wind up developing. What do you offer in return? I was hoping maybe an arrangement like "I'll code on the weekends for your idea if you share an idea I like enough to pursue" or something. Instead everybody kept downmodding my post; last time I checked it was in the negative something range.

So if I can find people willing to go it on equal terms ...

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#13
post #8
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's the thing. My life now sucks because I've spent most of my spare time researching this. And progress has been so slow. Friends have drifted away, etc. If I give up and sell out, at least I'll have a comfy position at a respectable company where people smarter than me would respect what I have to offer because I have 6 years worth of thinking about the problem on them. But the startup route ... hell I can't…

If I give up and sell out, at least I'll have a comfy position at a respectable company where people smarter than me would respect what I have to offer because I have 6 years worth of thinking about the problem on them. No they won't. You'll be a part of a dispirited bureauacracy, and nobody will care. They probably won't even finish the project. Your best bet is to get a bunch of young college age programmers to wor…

> our best bet is to get a bunch of young college age > programmers to work with you.

Columbia couldn't seem to care less, and the entire NYU structure has so far gotten ... hold your breath ... 2 resumes. Only one of which was remotely relevant, but not experienced enough to take initiative on this.

And since I'm not a programmer, I don't have the experience to provide guidance in that department.

I don't know why, but NY is not very start-uppity at all. People here fantasize about going to work for the IT dept. of Morgan Stanley or something.

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#14
Your situation is seems similar to Guy Kawasaki's Truemors experiment. You have something that you believe is interesting/useful but the market didn't believe you. IBM looking into it signals a market change in your favor. Since that's the case, I say do it.

However, it sounds like you need two things (er...people). A star programmer and a star evangelist. The first can be had (for a price). The second is harder to find. Either you need to become one or you need to hire someone that already is one.

Reference: http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/06/by_the_numbers_.html

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#15
One solution is to continue trying; Another is to "sell out" to BigCo;

Yet another is to publish your idea and possibly get hero status when someone that understands the relevance of your idea and has the necessary resources/skills to make it happen does so. You'd probably feel good about those 6 years spent thinking about it and researching it not being completely in vain.

I'm a bit freaked out thinking that great ideas can die with their originator if they never publish...

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#16
If you couldn't pull it off in six years, do you think another year or two will be enough? Do you think you can pull it together faster than IBM (and the dozen other competitors that will spring up once IBMs work becomes more widely known)? Ideas are worth practically nothing--you have no monopoly on your idea, unless it sucks, and even then, you probably aren't the only person working on it.

I ran my previous business for nearly seven years, before throwing in the towel. It was profitable for about six of those seven years, and it kept me in food and houses...but it wasn't a success, by my definition, and I won't twice make the mistake of continuing a business that I don't believe can win in its market...not just get by, but win. Perhaps you're not making that mistake, but I'd suggest you change your tactics immediately. Six years is an awful long time to have nothing to show.

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#17
You spent 6 years on this idea with nothing to show for it[red flag]. You say your bottlenecks are programmers, and that you couldn't convince anyone to join you [red flag]. Why did they not buy into it?

Instead of having you convince people, why not have some evidence to do the talking for you? Learn to put ideas into UI flow charts, functional specs. Show a paper prototype to customers and see if it is something they would pay for. Do whatever you can so that other programmers won't look at you like a "dreaded idea guy that wants 99% equity."

As for call IBM or try the start-up route, I would at least call them to see where they are with their research.

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#18
Here's my take on the question as well as few of your responses throughout.

Stop worrying about programmers. If you have been toying with this idea for 6 years, take another one year and learn how to program. if you're cash strapped there are plenty of online tutorials and good old manuals. If have some cash outsource it to india or elance. if people are paid with money, they sometimes tend not to 'care' what they are working on, but give results.

The fact that IBM is doing research in this field means that they think that it might be worth it to work on this.

I think you need to act on it and if you spent that amount of time mulling it over, checking into things. get it done and see what people think, let the market decide. If someone doesn't get it, explain to them why they should. people thought blogs were stupid, all the other search engines didn't buy into google, now they wish they had.

I was in a similar thought process when i started my site, after i started it i kept coming across competitors i never even heard of. the fact that people are using my site and getting results was my 'vindication', after all there are a lot of other services that guarantee so much but didn't work for some people.

as far a i know ideas are worthless. pg talks about it some where. put it out there and see what happens, if IBM looks into what you are doing and blatantly copies you, sue them, but expect a long drawn-out legal battle that you won't win.

Lastly, people might have a hard time helping you out here if you don't talk about your idea. People might be interested in helping you out, by closely guarding your idea people might not help out.

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#19
post #3
post #2

What's your idea?

How does that make a difference? Let's just say it's something that I know more about than however many PhDs they have looking into it and no matter how smart they are or what their budget is, it will be impossible to replicate the conditions that led to the insights I've gained about why things developed as they did and how to apply it to the business world. Not saying it's because I'm smarter or anything, it's just…

I have a friend who's been through a similar position, except in the hardware world. Last year he got a full time job, and while he says he still wants to pursue his idea, the likelihood is diminishing every day. Just for reference, he's a Ph.D. just above 30, and his idea comes from something he discovered coincidentally from his research.

If it is really a good idea, find a partner who complements your skills. Assembling a team is probably the hardest part. If you can't assemble one, all odds are against you, no matter how good the idea is. If you don't have people at your disposal, you have to convince other people the idea is good; you'll have to prove it some way or another.

If you're like my friend, who has extensive knowledge beyond what competitors would have in several years, the idea is unobvious enough that even if you outline it understandably, you don't have worries about competitors. If it isn't at that level of sophistication, my bet is that even if competitors haven't thought through things as thoroughly as you have, they will have implementations that are simply good enough.

Re: Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

#20
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have valuable knowledge that no one else has (or can easily get), and you need programmers, why don't you share what you can here and see if anyone wants to join you? Presumably you can share enough to give people an idea of what you are doing?

If I could find some programmers who won't dismiss my value after I've transferred my insights, I'd gladly do it. But judging from the thinking processes of what I see on posts here ... Just to give an example, a few days ago a "bored developer" posted a post saying he was looking for good ideas. Whenever I see MBA/Financial-types posting on Hacker News looking for programmers, the response is usually, "Why should I…

You've made the mistake of believing an idea has value. It doesn't. An idea plus a good execution of it has value. If you can't convince a developer that you bring needed value to the execution of that idea, and you can't pay developers to work on your idea, then you have nothing.

In six years you could have learned to program well enough to build a kickass demo--the fact that you haven't makes it pretty clear to developers that you don't believe in your idea enough to commit your own time to it (other than, apparently, thinking really hard about it)...but you'd be really happy to have someone else commit time to it and share the results with you. Hell, with the quality of modern tools, if you started today, you could have a proof of concept running in a year, even if you've never seen a terminal or a text editor before. Python, Ruby, Perl, and even PHP, make developing simple applications, well, simple.

Sorry if I seem to be dismissing you without knowledge of your idea or your actual work in the field, but this is what you're facing in trying to get someone to write your software for you, for free. This is what you have to overcome, and I hope I've made it clear that the way you are presenting it is not going to do that. What you think you're saying, and what an engineer hears you saying, are apparently two very different things. I suspect you think you're saying, "I've done all of the legwork and research and hard work leading up to actual development, and now I just need a technical person to put these well-researched pieces together." But, an engineer hears, "I've done nothing but have super cool ideas for the past six years, and now I'd like you to implement my vague and over-reaching specifications into a product, for free, and share the results with me."

You can't really blame them for not signing on, right?

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