Earlier quoted context omitted.
Possibly stupid question: How can I verify that upnp is really disabled? (I don't trust my router to do it correctly) edit: https://www.grc.com/su/UPnP-Rejected.htm
Probably sniffing the packets should work. But even if you do that properly there is always a high chance your router will be compromised and you won't be able to fix it. To be extra sure just treat it as such and put a firewall between it and your LAN. That requires time to configure, but may satisfy the paranoid.
How about use a firewall that's not shit to begin with.