The human brain requires about 25 watts of electricity to operate. Simulating the brain on a supercomputer with existing microchips would generate an annual electrical bill of about $3 billion. If computing speeds continue to develop at their current exponential pace, and energy efficiency improves, Markram believes that he'll be able to model a complete human brain on a single machine in ten years or less.I wonder how many megawatts Blue Brain will need to do something simple simulating only 1e5 cells.
According to wikipedia,
- the average power consumption of a human cell is around 1e-12 watts.
- 50 years ago ENIAC needed 150 kW to do what you could probably do today in a few µW.
Based on those numbers, I think Markram is way too optimistic about simulating the brain on a signle machine in 10 years. If things continue as they have, it's more likely to take closer to 50 years.
I'll pay more attention to Kurzweil's singularity when the difference in power consumption between a tiny fraction of a simulated brain and a real one drops below ten orders of magnitude.