Earlier quoted context omitted.
This... rings so right... but me and probably many other programmers here lack the math to see the explanation immediately in front of our eyes when we hear the answer. Can you please elaborate? Edit: thanks. This is convincing, but... given that we're looking for a fixed point of a process like... [bah, I lack words to describe a vague, non-rigorous intuition]... I expect that there is a convincing one-sentence expl…
Your intuition is better than mine! I crunched it out (just now edited my answer to show how) but still have no intuitive sense of why it should be the golden ratio. Would love to hear some intuition for that!
But generally...
The process is something like:
If you choose 0.5, then 0.625 beats you because that is the expected average of someone redrawing below 0.5. If you choose 0.625, then 0.617[2] beats you because that is the expected average of someone redrawing below 0.625. If you choose 0.618, then 0.6182 beats you...
Lets ignore those numbers for a moment and focus on the process: "Given a number to redraw below, redraw below the expected value of redrawing below that number".
Trying to find a fixed point for this kind of process, the golden ratio has some kind of... mythological fit? Like, I've heard so many stories like this that ended up with a formula involving the golden ratio...
I wouldn't necessarily expect the answer to be phi, but I would so not be surprised to find it to be some formula involving phi, a rational factor, and maybe pi (just because I have absolutely no intuition for which series happen to sum to rational factors of pi).
[2] I'm getting these numbers by simulation, it's too late for me here in Israel to do math