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Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

washingtonpost.com

21–30 of 122 posts

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coal does not compete against renewables, it competes against combined cycle natural gas plants. According to the 2016 report, it's tax credits that brings solar PV within 5% of combined cycle plants. Without the credits it's 33% more expensive. (And this is for plants entering service in 2022.)

Maybe I'm missing your argument? I'm arguing moving to natural gas is a win regardless, even if it takes longer for the cost of solar to come down.

maybe (although I'm not really disagreeing with you). I'm more worried about continuing the increase of solar and other renewables.

I understand nat gas may be better and a temporary win... but I think the future should be renewables, and I'm concerned about policy changes that could damage and set back progress with solar, etc.

If solar is only competitive because of tax credits, then solar companies may have significant losses if those credits are discontinued.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#22
I think Tesla will do okay, they've got a solid product that stands on its own.

What I'm worried about is rooftop solar tiles. One of the thing that can make it cheaper than a traditional roof is that the whole thing will qualify for solar subsidies. If that goes away it could make things incredibly difficult for Solar City.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#24

It talks about Tesla, but I'm not really sure how much oil prices can really decline. I would be more worried about SolarCity and solar in general. Trump says he wants to expand coal, nat gas, etc.. and cheaper prices for those (and perhaps discontinuation of credits for renewable energy) would discourage new solar installations. What would be really sad is if this policy change causes bankruptcies in renewable energ…

I think the talk of expanding coal production in particular was mostly talk aimed at a segment of the electorate (although I haven't followed Trump closely enough to realize the extent to which he realizes this).

The demise of Appalachian coal was mostly due to the rise of both natural gas and Wyoming coal, as well as exhaustion of readily available resources. Though Appalachian coal is higher grade, it requires expensive and dangerous mining practices such as room and pillar mining, mountaintop removal, or more traditional practices in increasingly small and geometrically complicated seams. The coal from Wyoming is basically at the surface and can be strip mined at scale very cheaply, with lots of automation.

Unconventional oil and gas production is also at odds with coal production. As you've said, oil can't get that much cheaper, and gas is pretty similar, and has more substitution with coal. Many of the restrictions on unconventional production (i.e. fracking regulations) are done at the state level, and given the concern over recent seismicity in associated with injection of post-fracking wastewater, the states probably won't budge that much. If as pro-oil a state agency as the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (the main regulatory agency in OK) is tamping down on production processes, there is very little a Trump administration can do to shift the needle.

Similarly, we (he) won't be able to simply deregulate and re-invigorate mining. Too much of the demand is based in China, and a trade war there will simply depress prices further. Additionally, many of the resources are in states that are not overly favorable to Trump, and the state EPAs have a lot of sway, especially in a more 'states rights' environment. Rare Earths, for example, are mostly found in the US near Las Vegas but across the state line in Mountain Pass, California. And NV isn't as red as it used to be either.

Lithium production could increase, but I think the problems there are there just aren't a lot of good sources, not environmental regulations. Lithium is tied up with salts or brine (salty water) from hypersaline lakes that dried up and concentrated metals that were already especially abundant due to particular geology. Lithium mining is often just pumping salty water out of aquifers or dredging it from lakeshores. It's not like copper or gold mining/processing that involves nasties like mercury and arsenic.

Trump's policies will probably mostly involve somewhat symbolic, macroeconomically insignificant, and locally damaging exploitation of currently off-limits areas like ANWR, offshore CA and the east coast, and possibly many of the new national monuments in the West that may have uranium or other metals.

Eliminating the tax incentives for renewables is also likely, but may not yield as much permanent damage as environmental degradation; some companies may lose market share or capitalization, some may bust, but this won't turn the tide.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#25
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, come on. A major reason people buy Tesla vehicles because they "want to do their part" for the environment.

Yea, but those folks won't change their behavior. If anything they will probably be more encouraged to do more. I think what OP is getting at is that Tesla isn't aiming for just that demographic. Musk has always wanted to produce his cars so that they are desirable to everyone.

Tesla needs to make desirable cars because otherwise the environmental reason alone is not sufficient for more people to make the move. Musk's goal is to get more people to use sustainable energy.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#26

I think Tesla will do okay, they've got a solid product that stands on its own. What I'm worried about is rooftop solar tiles. One of the thing that can make it cheaper than a traditional roof is that the whole thing will qualify for solar subsidies. If that goes away it could make things incredibly difficult for Solar City.

I guess it depends on whether you think that net metering is a subsidy and whose eyes are beholding the payments. Those tiles are generating electricity, why shouldn't they get paid same as large generators?

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#27
post #20

If Tesla’s not competitive, then it’s not competitive. I’m glad to see the government involvement being reduced. Let the free market handle things.

It's much easier to make a buck if you're not held accountable for negative externalities.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm missing your argument? I'm arguing moving to natural gas is a win regardless, even if it takes longer for the cost of solar to come down.

maybe (although I'm not really disagreeing with you). I'm more worried about continuing the increase of solar and other renewables. I understand nat gas may be better and a temporary win... but I think the future should be renewables, and I'm concerned about policy changes that could damage and set back progress with solar, etc. If solar is only competitive because of tax credits, then solar companies may have signif…

I'm just as dismayed as you, and already researching damage control.

I have a CPA investigating how to use the ITC tax code to partner those with a tax liability to solar projects. You would estimate your tax liability, make a payment to the solar project, and their tax credit would then flow back to you when you file your taxes; whatever dollars you would've sent to the US government, you end up sending to a solar project instead.

If its doable, I'm putting a Django site together and starting to market it. The best renewable is the one that gets installed as soon as possible.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#29
post #20

If Tesla’s not competitive, then it’s not competitive. I’m glad to see the government involvement being reduced. Let the free market handle things.

If you're not paying for the carbon externalities, the free market has failed.

Re: Trump’s sweep could be a big setback to Tesla and Elon Musk

#30
post #20

If Tesla’s not competitive, then it’s not competitive. I’m glad to see the government involvement being reduced. Let the free market handle things.

Letting the free market handle things works, IF your only goal is economic. And while that is important, there are bigger pictures to worry about. Like, preserving a habitable planet.
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