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Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

nytimes.com

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Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#61

Post by wavefunction »

stcredzero wrote: post #53

A lot of the dynamics were very similar to the Brexit vote in the U.K.,” which also took many commentators by surprise. Hillary Clinton’s campaign, he said, forgot the motto that Bill Clinton had won the presidency with in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Donald Trump was a stealth 3rd party candidate, riding on a wave produced by demographic changes and the falling fortunes of a large demographic. He's down with OP…

I grew up in "flyover country" as it has been so lovingly labeled by the coastal urbanites, and I would agree that the media is completely out of touch with a huge portion of the country.

Many of these people are decent but weren't offered even lip-service by the Democratic candidate or party. You have Hillary treating them like second class citizens offering them a lower minimum wage than urbanites, for example. Why should people who have been historically neglected maintain this situation?

This isn't permanent though. I've mentioned in other posts on other subjects that the "New Economy" needs to align its interests with those who have been left behind. You get their kids into dynamic programs that offer them an opportunity to share in the largesse generated by innovation and they will become more generous and open and integrated with the rest of the country.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#62

Post by return0 »

kbenson wrote: post #42
return0 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He explains his rational argument here[1]. Basically his argument is "don't take Trump literally, take him seriously". 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob-LJqPQEJ4

> Basically his argument is "don't take Trump literally, take him seriously". Which I guess is great if you're a billionaire and probably get some time with Trump or someone close to him that knows what he actually plans to do. In the meantime, all the rest of us are left with "I'm going to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something great." Forgive me if I would have preferred something a little more substantial.…

Can't disagree with you on that. However it's very likely that most of his voters took him seriously. It's not likely that they are all bigoted idiots, and in fact, they were not: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/white-voters...

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#63

Post by pmelendez »

billfor wrote: post #45
logicallee wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody thought Clinton was swell, most Democrats I've spoken with hated her. The alternative is someone (Trump) who never had any kind of political experience of any kind, period. Would you get in a plane flown by someone with 0 hours of flight training, literally zero? I'd rather get in a plane flown by a pilot who has spoken out publicly about being a Jihadi terrorist (in this analogy Hillary Clinton, and I make th…

Google "What jobs did Obama have". At least Trump ran a company and built things like hotels, which shows some organizational skill. If he runs the goverment as efficiently as he did his campagin (less than $5/vote) he might get some where -- we should at least give him the benefit of the doubt.

> If he runs the goverment as efficiently as he did his campagin (less than $5/vote)

I don't know if you realize, but Trump's definition of efficiency is ripping off people he has leverage off, now he will have several degrees of freedom to rip off not only tax players but governments.

I have a strong feeling that the plan he has to make Mexico pay for the wall involves leverage with the NAFTA redefinition... He might miscalculate this though, Mexico is not as dependent of USA as it used to be

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#64

Post by DigitalJack »

billfor wrote: post #45
logicallee wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody thought Clinton was swell, most Democrats I've spoken with hated her. The alternative is someone (Trump) who never had any kind of political experience of any kind, period. Would you get in a plane flown by someone with 0 hours of flight training, literally zero? I'd rather get in a plane flown by a pilot who has spoken out publicly about being a Jihadi terrorist (in this analogy Hillary Clinton, and I make th…

Google "What jobs did Obama have". At least Trump ran a company and built things like hotels, which shows some organizational skill. If he runs the goverment as efficiently as he did his campagin (less than $5/vote) he might get some where -- we should at least give him the benefit of the doubt.

I agree with you regarding the business perspective.

I don't think the efficiency of his campaign is directly applicable, more I would say his ability to seize an advantage (the media's strong dislike of him) where others would not have even known there was an advantage to be had is the real takeaway.

A crucial skill for negotiating.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#65

Post by return0 »

pmelendez wrote: post #51
return0 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He explains his rational argument here[1]. Basically his argument is "don't take Trump literally, take him seriously". 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob-LJqPQEJ4

Being Venezuelan I am familiar with the whole "pay attention what he does instead of what it says", and that didn't work well for us. The problem with authoritarian governments is that they can delay plans but never forget about them. If Thiel really think that, then he is not only an opportunist but also a fool.

I don't know, given thiel's track record, maybe we should wonder if we are the fools.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#66

Post by gwern »

I would say OP has begged the question. Just because Trump has won does not mean that Thiel's bet has paid off. As in cornering the market or making a killing on paper, 'how do you bury the body?' Indeed, more than one person on the betting sites or prediction markets (or Bitcoin exchange) has been burned when they thought they won something but the market resolved otherwise. Until you've withdrawn your cash, you haven't made any money and you are still vulnerable to counterparty risk. And Thiel has yet to cash out any of his supposed 'influence'.

I noted when Thiel made his original donations, and then kept doubling down, that there was a good probability he would 'win' (Trump never falling below 10% in the prediction markets) but I felt that the more serious issue was whether he would benefit. Trump has a long history of using and discarding people as soon as they are no longer useful, including decades of simply not paying people who have done work for him (at least two examples in his campaign alone: the polling agency and the girls who sang at his rallies) and daring them to sue. Not to mention how often he loudly promises to donate to charity and then... doesn't. Narcissists are not known for their gratitude, generosity, reciprocation, or feeling bound by past promises or contracts explicit or implicit. Thiel donating to Trump and giving speeches in his support is merely Trump's due for being the greatest businessman in the world and the man who will make America great again. It does not follow that Trump will actually do anything for Thiel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Farmer_and_the_Viper

It will be interesting to see if Thiel's bet on Donald Trump ever wins big and he gets something out of it like a Supreme Court nomination. But it's not over yet, and his chickens have neither hatched nor come home to roost.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#67

Post by muad »

I think the real story here isn't that Thiel was right, but that the rest of SV and the MSM were so wrong.

You have all the data in the world and you can't see what was staring you in the face the entire time.

Get out of your bubble and get to know your neighbors, it is the only way forward.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#68

Post by kbenson »

coldtea wrote: post #47
pmelendez wrote: post #4

I am ok with Thiel thinking Trump would win. What was a disappointment for me is that Thiel actually believes Trump was a good candidate and (I speculate) agrees with his platform. Also, apparently has no problem with the incendiary and hateful speech of Trump

> Also, apparently has no problem with the incendiary and hateful speech of Trump That's probably because that has been overplayed. The President, whatever his beliefs doesn't change America's racism (or lack thereof), in the same way there was a record of police shootings of blacks etc. under Obama. A president's economic platform is more important, and Hillary, as did most pundits, mostly retold the old wives tales…

> That's probably because that has been overplayed. The President, whatever his beliefs doesn't change America's racism (or lack thereof), in the same way there was a record of police shootings of blacks etc. under Obama.

This actually touches on what upset me most about this election. It's not so much that I think Trump is going to be horrible. I think he's been vague enough and it's obvious enough that he was playing to his audience that he could roll out Clinton's exact plan tomorrow and I wouldn't be all that surprised. What really bothers me is the support he got based on the persona and values he projected.

That people can equate breaking the rules using a personal email server with recorded audio of a candidate condoning and admitting sexual assault. That one was often brought out to even the score when tallying the reported sins of the candidates leaves me somewhat depressed about the state of my country. I'm left feeling that if a video was presented of Trump actually doing the things he talked about but denied, sure, Clinton would probably have won, but it still would have been close, and I'm left in the position of trying to reconcile what I thought were values most my country believed in with evidence to the contrary.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#69

Post by hugh4life »

I wish Thiel would become more involved... Trump is likely to end up starting too many fights on too many fronts by myopic activists whose concerns don't matter to the average voter but that rile up a significant activist base in opposition. Trump can't win a 2nd term without triangulation to mollify that. He needs to pick his battles.

Re: Peter Thiel’s Bet on Donald Trump Wins Big

#70

Post by wavefunction »

pen2l wrote: post #16
objclxt wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For starters, immigration is a key issue for Silicon Valley for which Thiel can be a voice of reason to influence the new administration. I don't know if immigration is as much of an issue for Palantir, given many of its clients are clandestine and won't permit non-citizens to work on their projects.

> > For starters, immigration is a key issue for Silicon Valley for which Thiel can be a voice of reason to influence the new administration. > I don't know if immigration is as much of an issue for Palantir, given many of its clients are clandestine and won't permit non-citizens to work on their projects. So, Palantir is actually in trouble for not hiring certain immigrants / races. See http://www.nytimes.com/2016/0…

I expect there to be a prohibition against foreign nationals at a lot of defense contractors. Consider his country of origin: it's one of the last places our government wants technology transfer or espionage to occur with.

And I mean no offense to your friend, but that's how those folks think.

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