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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

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Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#201

Post by themantalope »

protomyth wrote: post #146
0xmohit wrote: post #124

Honest question: Doesn't it get difficult to decide who to vote when you have such choices?

I voted 3rd party to try to get the Libertarians above the % threshold on matching funds. It worked in 1992 but was squandered in 1996 by Perot's party. I was hoping it might work again with a party not built around one man. Sadly, the Libertarians did everything in their power to screw this one up too.

Libertarians had a real chance to stand out as a actual alternate response to the static and predictable policy stances of the Dems and Repubs. However, Gary Johnson struck out badly on several occasions, especially when it came to his knowledge of international politics. And that weird interview when his tongue just stopped working for 30 seconds but he kept on talking.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#202

Post by RandomOpinion »

ant6n wrote: post #177
RandomOpinion wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not surprised; a day of reckoning was bound to come for the left. Consider that even if Trump had lost, his power base would still have existed afterward. Trump is not the problem, Trump is a symptom. The American left took its eyes off of what's important, namely the working class, and instead spent its time and political capital on frivolous[0] causes. This is a wake-up call to refocus. [0] Lots of things some migh…

Except ... how the fuck is Trump going to help those people. It's like those poor, white, rural (, racist) working class folks are eating their face to spite their face.

Stop. The. Name. Calling. Stop it right now. Even if your demographic breakdown were correct[0], those are your fellow citizens your're referring to. That tone is why the left is in the state it is right now.

Trump is, perhaps, not going to help "those people" but neither, in their minds, was Clinton. They are simply going with the "perhaps" rather than (again, in their mind) certain no.

[0] For example, suburbanites support Trump in about equal numbers and about 1/3 of college graduates and postgraduates support Trump. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-electi...

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#203

Post by threesixandnine »

At this time we still cannot be sure who will win but all this to me looks like a big fuck you. It looks like a middle finger and it shows how disconnected media moguls, establishment, bureaucracy and "righteous" leftists-democracts are with the people on the ground.

It went so far that people who would vote for Trump lied in polls just so that they don't receive strange looks or something worse. That is the fear above mentioned "establishment" instilled into people. And it's not just US...

The meltdown of the "media" and shock is just pure funny.

Let's forget about all the controversy around Clinton family. I will just leave this[0] here.

[0]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1582795/Hillary-Cl...

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#204

Post by flukus »

MichaelBurge wrote: post #121
M_Grey wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.

Canada's immigration site is down due to volume. It won't happen, but it'd be hilarious if the Democrats planned to rig future elections by importing millions of immigrants to vote for them, and they instead end up emigrating by the millions to Canada thus swinging it in the opposite direction.

I imagine it wasn't built to handle high volumes in the first place.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#205

Post by sbuttgereit »

It's interesting looking at the way some of the prediction markets behaved through this cycle. Up until results started coming in, sites like predictit.org were all "predicting" overwhelming Clinton victory. That so far has clearly not panned out.

I think it says that these prediction markets aren't so good at actually predicting anything: all they really do is sort of act as a barometer of how media narratives influence popular thought on certain subjects. I do expect that they will correlate with outcomes better than 50/50... but not so much so that the "wisdom of crowds" line is really justified.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#206

Post by coderdude »

RandomOpinion wrote: post #202
ant6n wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except ... how the fuck is Trump going to help those people. It's like those poor, white, rural (, racist) working class folks are eating their face to spite their face.

Stop. The. Name. Calling. Stop it right now. Even if your demographic breakdown were correct[0], those are your fellow citizens your're referring to. That tone is why the left is in the state it is right now. Trump is, perhaps, not going to help "those people" but neither, in their minds, was Clinton. They are simply going with the "perhaps" rather than (again, in their mind) certain no. [0] For example, suburbanites…

Arguing to stop the name-calling is about as effective on HN as it would be on the YouTube comments for a John Oliver video. HN is decidedly slanted on this matter. It's business as usual for democrats to call people names if you don't agree with them. Has been for as long as I can remember.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#207

Post by matwood »

ant6n wrote: post #177
RandomOpinion wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not surprised; a day of reckoning was bound to come for the left. Consider that even if Trump had lost, his power base would still have existed afterward. Trump is not the problem, Trump is a symptom. The American left took its eyes off of what's important, namely the working class, and instead spent its time and political capital on frivolous[0] causes. This is a wake-up call to refocus. [0] Lots of things some migh…

Except ... how the fuck is Trump going to help those people. It's like those poor, white, rural (, racist) working class folks are eating their face to spite their face.

For starters he didn't walk around calling them uneducated idiots like many on the left have and continue to do.

Bernie and Trump are touching into the same underlying problem that a lot of people have been left behind. They have felt screwed by the system for awhile and this is what we get. Heck, Bernie supporters got screwed again during the primary.

This is also only the start. Wait until we automate all fast food and driving jobs to see what a angry, jobless populace looks like.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#208

Post by Animats »

Dow futures down 752. Canada's immigration site down.

The Trump transition team, in rented office space in Washington, just became very important. They're Trump's HR department, and have to recruit the several thousand people the President gets to appoint. Because Trump isn't tightly connected to the "Republican establishment", the usual suspects aren't in line for those jobs. So where do they come from? Business?

Will Peter Thiel go to Washington? Secretary of Commerce, perhaps?

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#210

Post by protomyth »

themantalope wrote: post #201
protomyth wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I voted 3rd party to try to get the Libertarians above the % threshold on matching funds. It worked in 1992 but was squandered in 1996 by Perot's party. I was hoping it might work again with a party not built around one man. Sadly, the Libertarians did everything in their power to screw this one up too.

Libertarians had a real chance to stand out as a actual alternate response to the static and predictable policy stances of the Dems and Repubs. However, Gary Johnson struck out badly on several occasions, especially when it came to his knowledge of international politics. And that weird interview when his tongue just stopped working for 30 seconds but he kept on talking.

Yep, they could picked much better. Plus, his VP did him no favors.
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