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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

61–70 of 318 posts

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#61
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/contact-the-public-edi...

I doubt the public editor has much of an impact, if any, on the interactive tools.

Examining whether the graphic is misleading is exactly in their purview. If they believe it is, they would be as likely as anyone to improve their standards and processes.

Of course they aren't going to get it fixed tonight if that is what you are thinking.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#62
post #27
post #5

Nice but the three top gauges are moving suspiciously fast. Do they add a little random the the real number to give a sort of error margin visualisation ?

Disable jitter by running the following in console: require('forecast/jitter').get = function(){return 0;}

Increase the jitter amount with the following:

  require('forecast/jitter').get = function(){return Math.random()*10;}

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#63
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd venture further to say it's a perversion of "news" for a news site to be injecting garbage into the data for entertainment purposes.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

> Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error.

No dispute that it's clever and entertaining. These are undesirable qualities in a reliable source of information.

Can you imagine reading a scientific journal in which the data narrative was deliberately engineered to keep you guessing until the conclusion? You would be right to raise eyebrows at a publication that is investing in your attention rather than its own accuracy.

There's no dire consequence here, it's just slightly dystopian that US presidential elections are unapologetically leveraged as a vehicle for mass entertainment by the press itself.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#64

According to the nytimes it looks like the following right now: - President: Democrats (72%), - Senate (76%) and House (>95%): Republicans Is this a good outcome for a democracy? And if so, why? Wouldn't this mean that the system is effectively gridlocked?

Ideally politicians would be adults and work out deals, like in the old days. Or maybe this is why most democracies have parliamentary systems.

I'm not convinced that such "old days" ever existed. I'm open to the idea, but the more I learn of history, the more it seems like the deals were the exception, not the rule. The system was designed from the beginning to make things difficult.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#65
post #26

Why is voting actually hard to do? Even though we're so encouraged to vote, there is a lot of red tape. For example, depending on your street address, you may have to vote at a garden variety pick of a building. At my university, I couldn't vote in building A because my apartment was on street X. I ultimately was not able to vote today because it was actually _hard_ to vote.

Do you watch Last Week Tonight? People used to use Monday as a travel day to vote on Tuesday. It may not be so easy now, but they're trying to make it _easier_

> they're trying to make it _easier_

Not everywhere.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#66
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd venture further to say it's a perversion of "news" for a news site to be injecting garbage into the data for entertainment purposes.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

Sure you could use it that way but even so its an unclear representation at best. At worst misleading and disingenuous. If this is the information beung conveyed why not just have a bell curve of probability or a certainty range?

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#67
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd venture further to say it's a perversion of "news" for a news site to be injecting garbage into the data for entertainment purposes.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

[deleted]

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#69
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd venture further to say it's a perversion of "news" for a news site to be injecting garbage into the data for entertainment purposes.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

You're being too generous... this visualization misleads everyone who knows how to read an analog gauge. Your car's speedometer does not jiggle around to represent its own imprecision.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#70
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you watch Last Week Tonight? People used to use Monday as a travel day to vote on Tuesday. It may not be so easy now, but they're trying to make it _easier_

> they're trying to make it _easier_ Not everywhere.

Also true.
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