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Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

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Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#31

Post by jhbadger »

euyyn wrote: post #24
jhbadger wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is what time frame we are talking about. Yes, society looks nice now if you compare it to 200 years ago. But that's not relevant. The fact is by a lot of measurements (not limited to crime) the 1990s was the best decade ever (at least in the West). The question is how we can get back to that.

By which measurements? And why limit the window to the West?

Well, the US economic boom (the longest recorded expansion in US history), for example. And the drop in violent crime in the second half of the 1990s variously attributed to Bill Clinton's crime bill, the eventual indirect benefits of either legalizing abortion, or banning leaded gas. Limiting the window to the West avoids the whole issue of civil wars in Eastern Europe making anything seem better in comparison.

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#32

Post by [deleted] »

onion2k wrote: post #5
Analemma_ wrote: post #3

The whole "better angels of our nature" optimism thing kind of seems like sticking your head in the sand to me. Of course we should have a sense of perspective about how bad things are currently (which seems to be what Pinker is saying), but we should also carefully note whether we currently appear to be on an upward or downward trajectory (IMO, downward), and more importantly, whether there are any forces or incenti…

we should also carefully note whether we currently appear to be on an upward or downward trajectory (IMO, downward) There's no interpretative reasoning required when you're looking at a graph of the level of violence in society - it can be, and is, something that we can measure. You don't need an opinion about it. There's nothing subjective to think about and decide on. It's based on information. As such, your opinio…

[deleted]

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#33

Post by sambe »

Analemma_ wrote: post #9
onion2k wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we should also carefully note whether we currently appear to be on an upward or downward trajectory (IMO, downward) There's no interpretative reasoning required when you're looking at a graph of the level of violence in society - it can be, and is, something that we can measure. You don't need an opinion about it. There's nothing subjective to think about and decide on. It's based on information. As such, your opinio…

> It's based on information. As such, your opinion is objectively wrong. Hang on, I'm not making the claim you think I'm making. Pinker observes that the level of violence in society is at an all-time low- that is, as you say, an objective fact beyond dispute (modulo measurement error). But there is a clear implied claim there that this fact means pessimism for the future is unwarranted. That is what I am disputing,…

You explicitly said that in your opinion things are getting worse and you don't expect them to get better, didn't you? Or did you mean the opposite?

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#34

Post by incogitomode »

onion2k wrote: post #5
Analemma_ wrote: post #3

The whole "better angels of our nature" optimism thing kind of seems like sticking your head in the sand to me. Of course we should have a sense of perspective about how bad things are currently (which seems to be what Pinker is saying), but we should also carefully note whether we currently appear to be on an upward or downward trajectory (IMO, downward), and more importantly, whether there are any forces or incenti…

we should also carefully note whether we currently appear to be on an upward or downward trajectory (IMO, downward) There's no interpretative reasoning required when you're looking at a graph of the level of violence in society - it can be, and is, something that we can measure. You don't need an opinion about it. There's nothing subjective to think about and decide on. It's based on information. As such, your opinio…

I think it's at least fine to say that the parent is to some extent equivocating anecdotal personal "evidence" with extensive research and drawing very different conclusions.

Much of the criticism I've read of "The Better Angels..." has towed a similar line. It's obviously a hugely complicated subject, with at best terrible data for most of the period under examination, but I found that Pinker really did synthesize and explore a tremendous amount of data, history and theory in a way I found intelligent and compelling.

Pinker at least offers a more substantial counter-narrative to the standard news cycle where you're likely to get shot the next time you walk out your door. I would argue that view drives greater violence through a disproportionate law-and-order response to even the suspicion of a crime.

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#35

Post by hga »

jhbadger wrote: post #31
euyyn wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By which measurements? And why limit the window to the West?

Well, the US economic boom (the longest recorded expansion in US history), for example. And the drop in violent crime in the second half of the 1990s variously attributed to Bill Clinton's crime bill, the eventual indirect benefits of either legalizing abortion, or banning leaded gas. Limiting the window to the West avoids the whole issue of civil wars in Eastern Europe making anything seem better in comparison.

Don't forget the drop in the number of younger men, the most likely to become criminals, as the Baby Boomers grew older. Not to mention a bunch of the incorrigibles getting locked up for long periods of time.

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#36

Post by maxerickson »

hga wrote: post #35
jhbadger wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the US economic boom (the longest recorded expansion in US history), for example. And the drop in violent crime in the second half of the 1990s variously attributed to Bill Clinton's crime bill, the eventual indirect benefits of either legalizing abortion, or banning leaded gas. Limiting the window to the West avoids the whole issue of civil wars in Eastern Europe making anything seem better in comparison.

Don't forget the drop in the number of younger men, the most likely to become criminals, as the Baby Boomers grew older. Not to mention a bunch of the incorrigibles getting locked up for long periods of time.

The number of Millenials is about the same as the number of Boomers.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-...

Note that the article talks about the number of living Boomers and Millenials surpassing them. I'm not making that point. The max number of Boomers was about 79 million. 75 million Millenials is quite comparable to that.

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#37

Post by oldmanjay »

jhbadger wrote: post #31
euyyn wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By which measurements? And why limit the window to the West?

Well, the US economic boom (the longest recorded expansion in US history), for example. And the drop in violent crime in the second half of the 1990s variously attributed to Bill Clinton's crime bill, the eventual indirect benefits of either legalizing abortion, or banning leaded gas. Limiting the window to the West avoids the whole issue of civil wars in Eastern Europe making anything seem better in comparison.

That US economic boom was followed pretty spectacularly by a bust caused mainly by the rampant speculation that fueled the boom being based largely on bullshit.

You're clamoring for a soap bubble that didn't withstand a tiny pinprick.

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#38

Post by hga »

maxerickson wrote: post #36
hga wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget the drop in the number of younger men, the most likely to become criminals, as the Baby Boomers grew older. Not to mention a bunch of the incorrigibles getting locked up for long periods of time.

The number of Millenials is about the same as the number of Boomers. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-... Note that the article talks about the number of living Boomers and Millenials surpassing them. I'm not making that point. The max number of Boomers was about 79 million. 75 million Millenials is quite comparable to that.

We normally look at crimes by rates, X per 100,000, so the fact that the total population is quite a bit bigger between the two periods is significant.

So is the fact that the item you're comparing today's still living, old Boomers to a by definition much younger Millennial population. There were once quite a few more Boombers, and circling back to my entire point, young Boomers of the criminal producing age.

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#39

Post by maxerickson »

hga wrote: post #38
maxerickson wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of Millenials is about the same as the number of Boomers. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/25/millennials-... Note that the article talks about the number of living Boomers and Millenials surpassing them. I'm not making that point. The max number of Boomers was about 79 million. 75 million Millenials is quite comparable to that.

We normally look at crimes by rates, X per 100,000, so the fact that the total population is quite a bit bigger between the two periods is significant. So is the fact that the item you're comparing today's still living, old Boomers to a by definition much younger Millennial population. There were once quite a few more Boombers, and circling back to my entire point, young Boomers of the criminal producing age.

No, I'm comparing the 75 million living Millenials to the 79 million peak population of the Boomers. But I repeat myself.

I also disagree that a ~5% difference would be likely to drive significant differences in crime rates.

Later: Yes, that Millenials are a smaller percentage of the population would complicate the comparison.

Re: Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence

#40

Post by RodericDay »

Steven Pinker always reminds me of that Upton Sinclair quote, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!".

His entire career as a public intellectual seems to be as a defender of the status quo, reassuring tech-inclined liberals that everything is fine, that they can go on consuming, because "the system" is working well.

And he writes gigantic tomes that require gigantic tomes to reply to, so it's a bit of a war of attrition.

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