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MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

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Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#61
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What motivates these global alarmists? And how do they get money by being so shrill? Is your average citizen just dying to be worried over the next catastrophe and willing to throw money at whomever can scare them the most?

I don't know, but this specific phenomena goes back to 200 AD (sic), and then you can go back to, oh, the Book of Revelations and so on. There seems to be a strong drive in at least some people towards this sort of thing. Politicians gain power by not "letting a serious crisis go to waste" ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yeA_kHHLow ); how real a crisis is irrelevant. Funding naturally follows for those talking up t…

This is why you refer to terrorists getting their hands on nuclear weapons, I'm sure.

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#62
post #16
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Important part: " Lindzen recieved $2500 a day from oil and coal interests for his services.1,2, 3 His article "Global Warming: the Origin and Nature of Alleged Scientific Consensus," was underwritten by OPEC.1 Lindzen has lectured at numerous Cooler Heads Coalition meetings. The Cooler Heads Coalition is funded by CEI which is in turn funded by Exxon Mobil. He has also given talks for the George C. Marshall Institut…

Why is this important? He's not going to get any funding by the government, which has decided "the science is settled". By this standard, the funding of the members of "the consensus" is just as important and just as damning, if not more, since there's billions annually being funded on the other side.

As I said elsewhere, that's false equivalency. Just because AGW-denialism is not orthodox doesn't mean that it's on equal footing with AGW. By your argument, the government should fund intelligent design (or should I say evolution denialism) too!

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#63
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not asking you to do this work, but to prove your point you'd need to list some research that the NSF has funded that "denies" global warming (assuming they fund the reverse).

That's false equivalency. The NSF doesn't fund research to show that the earth is flat, because it isn't. Just because the well-tested AGW hypothesis exists doesn't mean that AGW denialism is on equal footing.

The "earth is round" folks don't hide data. They show their work.

Note that the NSF does fund things that seriously test special relativity.

Do you really think that the temp measurements are as sound? You remember the temp measurements. The US ones come from stations in parking lots, and they're the good ones. A huge fraction of the foreign ones have been moved. We don't know how that was adjusted for. (The dog ate their homework.)

Which reminds me, we have data showing that CO2 levels on earth have been several times higher than the projected disaster case. Care to guess what the "unbearable" temps were?

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#64
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be the same Journal of Climate that Mann was once an editor of ( http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=201 )? The invocation of "peer review" doesn't mean anything (good) nowadays in this field, as previously discussed (see also what the CRU emails revealed about ... management of "acceptable" journals and editors), and a single peer reviewed paper by the CRU circle including Mann is less than con…

If you're going to cry out censorship, then at least have the common decency not to rely on the tired old CRU/climategate scam. This has been rather thoroughly and soundly debunked over and over again. Denialist papers get rejected from peer reviewed journals because they aren't science, not because there's a conspiracy.

Lord Oxburgh who "debunked" Climategate is the chairman of Falck Renewables, a company whose entire business is predicated on global warming. This is what counts as "peer review".

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#65
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 6 year old paper is limited in its utility, especially since the CRU email leak confirmed that the "alarmists" have been systematically keeping the other side out of the peer-reviewed literature.

[citation needed] All joking aside, the CRU e-mail hack revealed no such thing. To say otherwise is either ignorant or dishonest.

A little quality time with searches like http://www.google.com/search?q=redefine+peer+review+site%3Aw... will provide all the citations needed.

Here's the ones I can find in a few minutes with just the phrases I can remember off the top of my head and one or two leads from those:

Phil Jones to Michael Mann: "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is !" http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=419&filen...

From Mann (http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=295): "The Soon & Baliunas paper couldn't have cleared a 'legitimate' peer review process anywhere. That leaves only one possibility--that the peer-review process at Climate Research has been hijacked by a few skeptics on the editorial board. [...] The skeptics appear to have staged a 'coup' at 'Climate Research'...."

[...]

"This was the danger of always criticising the skeptics for not publishing in the 'peer-reviewed literature'. Obviously, they found a solution to that--take over a journal! So what do we do about this? I think we have to stop considering 'Climate Research' as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal."

The end result was that half the editorial board resigned, I think all "non-skeptics".

Two quoted items in one email (http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=484); first this from Mann: "It's one thing to lose 'Climate Research'. We can't afford to lose GRL. I think it would be useful if people begin to record their experiences w/ both Saiers and potentially Mackwell (I don't know him--he would seem to be complicit w/ what is going on here)."

Followed by a Tom Wigley writing to I think Mann: "If you think that [GRL editor] Saiers is in the greenhouse skeptics camp, then, if we can find documentary 1evidence of this, we could go through official AGU channels to get him ousted."

And then nearly a year later Mann reports Mission Accomplished: "The GRL leak may have been plugged up now w/ new editorial leadership there...." http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=591

Saiers was in fact removed from dealing with the paper in question, although he insists he wasn't himself ousted: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2009/11/grl-and-james-saie...

Anyway, that's what I can find from the original sources in 15 minutes. There's a lot more, "The Truth Is Out There".

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#66
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point here is not which year was the hottest but the incorrect research that said a recent one was. An additional point would be the big deal the alarmists made when the first results came out and their silence on the correction. Your recollection is incorrect, "hide the decline" is found throughout the source code in the CRU archive leak (quoted like that in comments and directly expressed in the code). There's…

Did you actually read what "hide the decline" meant? Go learn about proxies and you'll see that what they mean is that there is a false decline in proxy temperatures that must be corrected for, likely due to increased CO₂ concentrations changing how tree rings are formed. There's no deception here-- they were up front and honest about this problem, and referred to data analysis techniques to correct for a false decli…

These "data analysis techniques to correct for a false decline" at best consisted of substituting thermometer readings for tree ring proxies. I wouldn't call that a "data analysis technique".

They also "improved" the curve for the 1930s as ESR learned from the code and data (http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=1447): "This, people, is blatant data-cooking, with no pretense otherwise. It flattens a period of warm temperatures in the 1930s — see those negative coefficients? Then, later on, it applies a positive multiplier so you get a nice dramatic hockey stick at the end of the century."

Also note how this meshes nicely with the paper that started this thread that did not until it was corrected show that 1934 was the hottest year in the 20th century.

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#67
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. A claim was made by two individuals, one a mining executive, the other an economist, in a trade publication called Energy and Environment with no peer review. Both of the authors are well-known industry skeptics. The claim was subsequently refuted by Mann, and ultimately discredited in a peer-reviewed article for the Journal of Climate ( http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI3351.1 ), in which an alter…

This would be the same Journal of Climate that Mann was once an editor of ( http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=201 )? The invocation of "peer review" doesn't mean anything (good) nowadays in this field, as previously discussed (see also what the CRU emails revealed about ... management of "acceptable" journals and editors), and a single peer reviewed paper by the CRU circle including Mann is less than con…

Once you accept the idea that all climatologists are partaking in a global conspiracy, then yes, peer review means little to you. You're stuck referencing emails from people you trust, which in your case consists of a mining executive and an economist. I prefer to get my climatology from people who study the climate.

For folks out there who aren't conspiracy buffs, there's a good article on this 'controversy' at http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11646-climate-myths-th....

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#68
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this important? He's not going to get any funding by the government, which has decided "the science is settled". By this standard, the funding of the members of "the consensus" is just as important and just as damning, if not more, since there's billions annually being funded on the other side.

As I said elsewhere, that's false equivalency. Just because AGW-denialism is not orthodox doesn't mean that it's on equal footing with AGW. By your argument, the government should fund intelligent design (or should I say evolution denialism) too!

The "skeptics" and "deniers", with some important exceptions, do not deny outright and in total the validity of climate science, which would be necessary to draw a valid equivalency between them and the Intelligent Design crowd. Many, perhaps most, don't even have a serious alternative theory, they're just pointing out what they think is wrong with AGW.

The important exceptions are:

As far as I know, the computer models that predict serious AGW just don't work. They don't "predict the past", i.e. you feed them historical data and they don't then predict what actually happened, and now that we can test their predictions they aren't working either. E.g.:

"The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong." http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1048&file...

ESR comments (http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=1473): "Eyebrows have quite rightly been raised over this quote. It is indeed a travesty that AGW theory cannot account for the lack of warming, and bears out what I and other AGW critics have been saying for years about the fallaciousness and lack of predictive power of AGW models.

"But the second sentence is actually far more damning. “The data is surely wrong.” This is how and where most scientific fraud begins."

And that brings us to the second big issue, how good is the data and based on that what can it be used for. The proxies are very iffy, especially when they get out of the historical period and can be compared to fairly solid actual temperature measurements ("hide the decline" of the tree ring proxies).

Then there's the questions of older thermometers, where researchers are trying to tease fractional degrees out of instruments with hand painted lines. That goes many times over for the proxies.

And the problem with badly situated ground monitoring stations, especially the urban heat island problem.

Then there's the demonstrated poor to impossible quality of the CRU data and their loss of the original data; as the detailed in the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file (http://www.anenglishmanscastle.com/HARRY_READ_ME.txt), they can't even reproduce their own massaging of the original data....

And as I understand it, the NASA satellite data has been calibrated against these poor ground station data sets, not e.g. weather balloons, but I could be wrong there. This is important since instruments can drift over time, and when they're in an inaccessible satellite....

This just hits the highlights of the problems with the data, before we get into a whole lot of what looks like at worst case outright fraud.

These things including fraud don't throw climate science per se into doubt as a discipline, but they do engender skepticism and denial of AGW, which as noted is another thing altogether.

Anyway, I'll repeat the call many people are making: open it up. Retrieve the original lost records, do the science in the open, publishing all methods, code and data, and let the chips fall where they may.

When an author of a published "science" paper refuses to share his raw data, methods and code (and we're not talking about e.g. chemistry/chemical engineering where there's competitive advantage on the table for chemical companies), people legitimately wonder and discount what he says. When scientists give "the dog ate my homework" excuses, you might believe them about that (I think it's very possible WRT to the CRU ... but it says something that they didn't consider it important to archive it carefully), but I don't see how you're obliged to treat their unconfirmable results with any respect.

Add the bad faith that's manifest in the CRU emails....

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#69
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be the same Journal of Climate that Mann was once an editor of ( http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=201 )? The invocation of "peer review" doesn't mean anything (good) nowadays in this field, as previously discussed (see also what the CRU emails revealed about ... management of "acceptable" journals and editors), and a single peer reviewed paper by the CRU circle including Mann is less than con…

If you're going to cry out censorship, then at least have the common decency not to rely on the tired old CRU/climategate scam. This has been rather thoroughly and soundly debunked over and over again. Denialist papers get rejected from peer reviewed journals because they aren't science, not because there's a conspiracy.

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1287887

Re: MIT Prof Richard S. Lindzen: Global Warming Alarmists Are in Denial

#70
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be the same Journal of Climate that Mann was once an editor of ( http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=201 )? The invocation of "peer review" doesn't mean anything (good) nowadays in this field, as previously discussed (see also what the CRU emails revealed about ... management of "acceptable" journals and editors), and a single peer reviewed paper by the CRU circle including Mann is less than con…

Once you accept the idea that all climatologists are partaking in a global conspiracy, then yes, peer review means little to you. You're stuck referencing emails from people you trust, which in your case consists of a mining executive and an economist. I prefer to get my climatology from people who study the climate. For folks out there who aren't conspiracy buffs, there's a good article on this 'controversy' at http…

Oh, no-one seriously believes there's an organized conspiracy. But a lot of scientists seem to have noticed that tacking "climate change" onto their funding proposals increases the odds of them being accepted. And scientists are people who've gotta eat at the end of the day; of course they're going to act in their own self-interest.
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