Earlier quoted context omitted.
The notion that the Syrian Revolution began with foreign (especially US) meddling is absurd. In 2011, the US was in the process of normalizing relations with the assad regime. Obama had appointed a new ambassador the year before. Clinton thought assad was a 'reformer.' The war broke out for a very simple reason: assad's forces kept shooting peaceful protesters. Despite assad's violence, the Revolution remained largel…
What you wrote about Obama is actually correct. True, Obama came in with a set of foreign policy objectives that were not inline with standing US foreign policy. So he lost that battle. He was very reluctant to involve the military, especially in the ME. So in Libya, for example, and even in Syria, he was accused of leading from behind. Even with respect to Russia, recall that he wanted to "reset" relations with that…
The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
81–90 of 91 posts
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
> So they want to build a pipeline from Qutar to the med through Syria. They want to what??? You really need to look at a map before saying things like that. I just..... Do you realize Qatar is on the coast? Why would you need to build a pipeline to another coast? And why go through Syria of all places? There are so many other routes you can take, and you think they want Syria so badly they triggered a war?
> They want to what??? You really need to look at a map before saying things like that. That's the popular 'opinion' induced by Russian propaganda and they're notorious for ignoring the reality.
Please look at the pipelines and read about the actions and incentives of the Gulf State. In particular, Qatar supported al Qaeda in Syria (Nusra as well as the Islamic State Group in addition to a number of other terrorist factions) with the pipeline project as a key aspect of its strategic calculus, even sabotaging, in a way, relations with Iran that had been started to improve.
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#83Earlier quoted context omitted.
Right, like in Bahrain? Unfortunately the history of US intervention is entirely ruled by strategic objectives, and the popular support narrative ruled by cherrypicked facts and selective attention to context.
I don't disagree but that is probably true of every country. Military engagement is always going to be driven by the foreign policy and objectives of a country.
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
If I've got this right, in Syria, Iran is opposed to ISIS/Daesh and Saudis are funding them? While the Russians are supporting the status-quo Assad/Alawhite faction and the American backed "liberation" factions have mostly died out? (People seem to have stopped talking about AQ in the context of Syria?)
There are no "liberal" syrian rebels, the factions america along with Saudis are supporting are Sunni militias which are cousins if not brothers of AQ. You have divided interests of Kurds, Turks, Alawite regime + Russian, Sunni Militias + Saudi + USA, Iraqi Shia + Iran each having their varied interests. Assad wants ISIS to linger around since the focus would be on it rather than him, and he is focused on fighting th…
This is absolutely bullshit propaganda trying to tie Assad to ISIS.
The Syrian Armed Forces have been the most effective fighting force against ISIS and it's creation has been infinitely problematic for it - from the capture of key oil fields, the capture of Hasaka and Der Zor (and key Air Force fields), to the ideological turn against the Shia/Baathist government based in Alawite territory.
I don't know where you heard this, but you should carefully check that source.
> Sunni militias (freedom fighters according to US kind of like 80s afghanistan)
I don't know if you know how ironic that is...
> Turks do not wants Kurds to be powerful and are interested in marginalizing them in Northern Syria
Definitely.
> Kurds want to fight ISIS with help of US and score brownie points for Kurdistan.
Mostly they are just interested in obtaining autonomous Kurdish zones, like Kojave in Northern Syria. We have not gotten the Kurds to invade further South. Their involvement in Iraq has been similarly in land near Kurdish territory.
> Sunni militias do not have much problem with ISIS want to fight the Alawite regime and make Syria Sunni Again
More than that many have made core alliances with them, with the FSA rebuking the US labeling of ISIS a terrorist organization.
> To say the least its a giant clusterfuck and US is willingly in bed with Al Qaeda ( wannabes like Al-Nusra front)
Amen. Though Nusra is hardly a 'wannabe'...
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stop funding and meddling with them?
Yes, but how? As an American I can try to vote for politicians that are opposed to meddling in the region, but the most that would do is create a non-meddling America. That's not going to affect the policies of other countries. In fact, a non-meddling America would likely open the door for even more meddling by countries like Russia. So: how? I really want to know.
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Kurds are not unified, and the Turks don't universally oppose them. The Syrian Kurds do not want to create a independent Kurdistan, while the Iraqi Kurds (KGP) do, and they are on good terms with the Turks. The US support of different groups has been overplayed. The US efforts were rather small and "in bed with AQ" is just spouting new headlines. The US tired to build a fraction, but failed, they have largely aba…
The US support of different groups has been overplayed. The US efforts were rather small and "in bed with AQ" is just spouting new headlines. The US tired to build a fraction, but failed, they have largely abandoned the effort. I hate when people write stuff like that! Thanks largely to Russian intervention, the US/Saudi/Qatar axis has, so far, failed to topple Assad. But no, they've not given up. Far from it. "Assad…
I have not said that they have. My statement was specific about us training of "moderate rebels". The programs were done both by the CIA and DoD but both were not all that successful and policy focus has shifted.
The US still does other things. Those are not the subject I was talking about.
> we're still doing all we can to to support them
Thats why I continue to read about all those nuclear attacks ...
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#87This is a pretty good article and worth a read for people who are not already informed. They were not completely correct. They seem to underestimate the stability and staying power of Jordan. Both US and Israel help to make sure that Jordan is protected. Stability of monarchies are typically underestimated. Syria's government has not fallen, and Nusra (now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham) never managed to unify the rebel to any…
They're Houthi, not Hutti (for the benefit of anyone trying to Google). Iona Craig and Peter Salisbury are both excellent on the current, horrible proxy war in Yemen.
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#88Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's difficult to claim that America's actions in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world have been good for America. In fact, the only war America participated in that ended up being a net good for America was World War 2, which resulted in the devastation of much of Europe and allowed American industries to expand and advance virtually unchallenged for almost 50 years. The Vietnam War however was a disaster of e…
The purpose of the Vietnam War, the Korean War, and the support of the Afghanistan insurgency weren't intended to be net positives for the United States. They were intended to be net negatives for the Soviet Union. And they were. Now we have instable areas, but the US prevented the Soviet Union from continuing to expand and collapsed it by overwhelming it with military costs to stabilize its periphery. In some circle…
The War in Vietnam was far more costly and destructive then any 'damage' that was done to the Soviets. It was a absolute net lose in every way, money, lives, credibility and so on. It was a major victory for communism and all anti-imperialist colonialist struggles.
You are just repeating the same failed and disproven logic that people like J.F. Dulles were advocating. They looked at everything in cold war terms, black and white. The reality however is different. Just because some countries are neutral or maybe communist does not make them automatically Soviet puppets and the countries in the same region do not automatically fall to communism because of that.
Had J.F. Dulles just accepted the situation in 1953 the US would have been in a much better position during the cold war. Vietnam would not have been allied with China and Russia against the US. The idea of "world communism" is a fantasy that should not be a guid to policy.
> support of the Afghanistan insurgency
That was a great policy. Problem is just that even at the time people pointed out that it was unlikely (almost impossible) that the Soviets would attack threw Iran to the Golf. So there were no vital US interests at stack. The Soviet, we now know, had no plans to do so, and not the capability.
In order to support the insurgency the US had to massively support Pakistan, they ignored Pakistani spread of extremism, they ignored the Pakistani nuclear program and the money flowed to the kind of insurgence that should not get money, rather then to the moderate afghani nationalists that should have gotten the money.
How people defend this policy in still today is insane to me. A nuclear Pakistan and India is one of the greats dangers for nuclear war in the world right now.
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's difficult to claim that America's actions in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world have been good for America. In fact, the only war America participated in that ended up being a net good for America was World War 2, which resulted in the devastation of much of Europe and allowed American industries to expand and advance virtually unchallenged for almost 50 years. The Vietnam War however was a disaster of e…
What do you think were the objectives in the war in Afghanistan and Iraq and the prolonged interference in the middle east as a whole?
Afghanistan was pretty clear cut. AQ was there, the US wanted to kick them out and install a regime that would prevent further use of Afghanistan at a base, so the Taliban had to go. There is little argument about this.
Iraq is the real question. I have spent quite a bit of time on this. Its really a mystery because it simply does not make sense. There were a combination of ideas that 'infected' a small group of top military and political people.
Iraq was actually the just a first step of a grand policy to rework the middle east. You can say about Bush and friends what you like, but at least they had a strategy. They basically wanted to demonstrate US power and US ability to install liberal democracy. This would split the Iran-Syria-Hezebolla Axis. It would pressure Iran and be helpful to Israel.
With this success in hand, they could use soft power way more effectively to 'control' weak regimes like Sudan. The idea was, join the US and if you don't you will get hammer in the ground and replaced with a democracy.
This strategy was of course thrown overboard when the Republicans lost the congress, Bush dumped Rumsfeld over board with it.
Since then they are back to having no strategy and a ad-hock fire brigade style of policy making.
Re: The Coming War in the Middle East (2013)
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
The purpose of the Vietnam War, the Korean War, and the support of the Afghanistan insurgency weren't intended to be net positives for the United States. They were intended to be net negatives for the Soviet Union. And they were. Now we have instable areas, but the US prevented the Soviet Union from continuing to expand and collapsed it by overwhelming it with military costs to stabilize its periphery. In some circle…
A net negative for the Soviets is a positive for the US. That is fair enough but it does not mean that your statement is true. The War in Vietnam was far more costly and destructive then any 'damage' that was done to the Soviets. It was a absolute net lose in every way, money, lives, credibility and so on. It was a major victory for communism and all anti-imperialist colonialist struggles. You are just repeating the…
I'm definitely repeating the logic of the state. To be clear here, this isn't old logic attributable to Dulles or Eisenhower but the rationality behind current US strategy.
This military/security logic is consistent over the past 70 years of great power struggle and I add it here not because I buy into all of the conclusions but because the arguments must be understood from the perspective of policy and decision makers in order for there to be a real dialogue between citizens and the state. Namely, citizens have to acknowledge the paranoid and aggressive tendencies of the state and understand reasoning from their perspective to counter the arguments.
When this isn't the case (look at Libya and Syria) the state interprets citizens' unhappiness to have to do with the number of soldiers killed (for example) or the financial costs of insurgency and so pursues proxy wars, support of terrorism, economic warfare, information warfare and other types of irregular aggression.
Anyway, pretty much fully agreed with your reply here.