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British Government loses Article 50 court fight

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Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#161
post #23
post #20

Mrs May has a 14 point lead in the polls and justification to call an election were Parliament to block Article 50. Given the current state of the opposition, their leader, and the fact that many Labour seats voted Leave it is a pretty safe bet that the Conservatives could end up with a 100+ majority. The key thing comes down to what "block Article 50" means. If the Government decide to not give ground during the Par…

Plenty of Conservative MPs and Conservative voters opposed Brexit. A general election would force the Conservatives to adopt a manifesto position on Brexit and be held accountable for the consequences of that position. It may not be a victory against Brexit, but it's a victory for democracy.

Since when have party manifestos been used to hold political parties to account?

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#162
post #67

Ultimately a clear majority of the UK population is in favor of leave. This has increased since the vote as the lies of the remain campaign proved not to be true. Much of the remain support is concentrated in a handful of London consistences meaning that almost all english MPs have a significant majority of leave supporters. They have to vote for that or they won't be selected in a future election. In any case. If th…

6% of leave voters have changed their mind, compared to just 1% of remain voters:

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/brexit-bri...

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#163
post #119
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're already anticipating a "remain" vote by parliament. That's not on the table, so far. Parliament wants to be involved, not necessarily kill Brexit. You can come back with that argument if and when Parliament actually tries to stop Brexit.

My point is: If a "remain" vote is not on the table, then what's the point in voting? It seems like a pointless exercise. Parliament can be (and are) involved in the Brexit process, but there are plenty of other ways to do that than with this vote.

The point of retaining the option for Parliament to veto Article 50 being invoked on a specific date is to ensure the MP for Maidenhead actually has to get their consent for the approach she chooses.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#164
post #78

I can't believe the UK government allowed this to happen. They went ahead with the referendum without ever explaining what Leave means. They should have drafted the Leave plan first, with very specific dates, and have people vote on that. "Do you want Britain to invoke Article 50 by 31 Dec 2016?" That would have been the responsible thing to do. (If anyone argues that you can't have a referendum on such a specificall…

You can't have a plan without negotiations happening.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#165
post #109
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the 72.2% turnout[1] it was just 37.5% of the voting-eligible population that voted for Brexit. The whole Brexit saga makes me think more than ever that voting on issues of such national importance (including general elections) should be made mandatory. [1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/how-did-turnout-a...

The referendum to enter the EU had a 64% turnout with 67.23% voting yes & 32.77% voting no. So that's around 43% that voted to enter[1]. Regardless, I think this entire line of reasoning makes no sense. You could dismiss pretty much any election by multiplying the "yes" votes with voter turnout to get less than 50%. That's just how democracies work, if you don't care enough to vote you don't get a say, that doesn't m…

> You could dismiss pretty much any election by multiplying the "yes" votes with voter turnout to get less than 50%.

Not in Australia. Here we have compulsory voting, and referendums have to have a double majority in order to pass (so there's no question about whether the majority of the people actually wanted the change).

So multiplying by voter turnout would not meaningfully change the results (voter turnout is >95%). Maybe more countries should adopt mandatory voting...

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are also remain voters who wish they'd voted leave.

Source? Edit: The study linked above [0] showed the following for voter regret (specifically "do you have doubts about the way you voted?"): Remain Yes / No / Don't Know 98% / 1% / 1% Leave Yes / No / Don't Know 90% / 6% / 4% [0]: http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/brexit-bri...

I for one. I voted remain, but having actually gone partly down the brexit path, would be comfortable with it now.

The treatment of leavers by remainers has been frankly disgusting. Accusing them of being racists, stupid, and various other things. Brexit has made them lose their minds. They simply refuse to believe their are people who would vote brexit for reasons other racism. I know many people who voted for brexit on informed reasons, that have nothing to do with racism.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#167
post #78

I can't believe the UK government allowed this to happen. They went ahead with the referendum without ever explaining what Leave means. They should have drafted the Leave plan first, with very specific dates, and have people vote on that. "Do you want Britain to invoke Article 50 by 31 Dec 2016?" That would have been the responsible thing to do. (If anyone argues that you can't have a referendum on such a specificall…

There can't be any leave plan because the EU refused to ever even discuss the possibility, as did unfortunately large chunks of the British civil service. Their primary strategy, since more or less forever, has been to resolutely insist that the EU is irreversible and forever and reducing its power is utterly unthinkable. Given that both governments refused to contemplate the possibility, how much of a plan did you e…

Who are you blaming exactly when you say that "EU refused"? What should this other party have done -- written a Leave plan when the UK government wouldn't do it?

The referendum was a matter between the UK electorate and their government. Other EU states played no part in that.

The Treaty of Lisbon specifically offers a way for a member state to withdraw in the timespan of two years. Not sure how you read that as "irreversible".

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#168
post #67

Ultimately a clear majority of the UK population is in favor of leave. This has increased since the vote as the lies of the remain campaign proved not to be true. Much of the remain support is concentrated in a handful of London consistences meaning that almost all english MPs have a significant majority of leave supporters. They have to vote for that or they won't be selected in a future election. In any case. If th…

> This has increased since the vote as the lies of the remain campaign proved not to be true. Just curious as an outsider, what lies are those?

The main ones were "I will trigger Article 50 the very next day" from David Cameron and George Osborne's threatened "punishment budget" where he tried to directly threaten the public into compliance by basically telling them he was going to take all their money.

There were also an awful lot of predictions of total, immediate economic armageddon. Up to and including telling us that the very fact we were having a vote was harming the economy massively.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#169
Hoisting a comment of mine from a previous thread:

The UK has never been through a "year zero" forcible reconstitution, so its constitutional and administrative arrangements are full of little adhoc anomalies (the various islands like Sark and Man, the City, "County" Durham, chancel repair liability, and so on). Mostly these are a fine and picturesque addition to the texture of the nation. There's certainly no real appetite to "fix" things, although Scotland managed to abolish the feudal system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abolition_of_Feudal_Tenure_etc...)

However, this means that the sort of internal tensions which in the US get nailed to the mast of the constitution instead float around, un-crystallized. Until now, when the "brexit" vote has triggered a cascade of constitutional crises: is parliamentary consent required to leave the EU? How does this affect the Good Friday Agreement? What about Scotland? What exactly is the constitutional status of the Human Rights Act and why do the conservatives keep trying to abolish it? And so on.

Right now the fight is about "sovereignty", but everyone seems to be operating with a sixteenth-century Henry VIII view where sovereignty must be absolute and means getting to do whatever you want. People keep talking about trade deals without realising that they also involve a compromise in arbitrariness, especially when things like ISDS are involved. Pretty much any international agreement involves the governments binding their hands and refraining from doing certain things (e.g. preferential subsidies) in exchange for the counterparty also accepting the same restriction.

There seem to be a lot of people who simply cannot handle the idea that other countries are free to not go along with what Britain wants if it's not also in their interests. Compromise lacks the stirring power of "sovereignty", but it's necessary if you want to get on in the global economy.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6% of leave voters regret their choice according to an academic study published about a month ago, enough to swing the vote the other way.... And as the effects of a potential Brexit continue to bite, this percentage will only increase http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/brexit-bri...

This suggests that brexit is still supported (can't judge quality): http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/696760/british-no-reg...

The express is so low on quality that it doesn't even feature in most mainstream discussion.
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