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British Government loses Article 50 court fight

bbc.co.uk

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Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#121

Post by KaiserPro »

cmdkeen wrote: post #20

Mrs May has a 14 point lead in the polls and justification to call an election were Parliament to block Article 50. Given the current state of the opposition, their leader, and the fact that many Labour seats voted Leave it is a pretty safe bet that the Conservatives could end up with a 100+ majority. The key thing comes down to what "block Article 50" means. If the Government decide to not give ground during the Par…

So a few things:

1) an early election would require 75% majority vote in the commons. Unlikely as labour would be wiped out (they'd have to vote for it).

2) The Tories are utterly scared of UKIP, an early vote if the economy is in less than great health, or the effects of post brexit globalisation become clear, then UKIP will hold the balance of power.

3) The real power in the tory party it's self is not with May and the government its with the 1922 comittee, who are an odd mix of libertarians and ultra nationalistic types. It would be them driving the purge not May. That scares May.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#122

Post by zerochances »

jbb555 wrote: post #67

Ultimately a clear majority of the UK population is in favor of leave. This has increased since the vote as the lies of the remain campaign proved not to be true. Much of the remain support is concentrated in a handful of London consistences meaning that almost all english MPs have a significant majority of leave supporters. They have to vote for that or they won't be selected in a future election. In any case. If th…

This is simply not true. Where have you got these ideas from?

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#123

Post by bb101 »

Many people voted pro-Brexit in the referendum due to the increasing disparity and alienation between the ruling/political class and the rest of the country.

By deferring the decision to a parliamentary majority, the High court has ensured that Brexit will not happen. That's a sound result for the politicians and chiefs of industry based in London, but what will it mean for the wider UK?

Both the courts and parliament demonstrating they are ready to meddle and overrule the majority will of the people, I have a feeling we are going to see many, many more votes for UKIP and BNP in any subsequent election. It's a ratchet effect along the lines of "if they didn't get the message with this vote, perhaps they'll get the message with this one."

For the Americans out there, this is akin to Trump receiving a 52% majority by US voters (yes, 52% is still a majority, no matter how thin), and then the Electoral College deciding to vote amongst themselves instead about who becomes President: of course it would be Clinton.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#124

Post by notahacker »

gsnedders wrote: post #106
notahacker wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a purely theoretical obstacle. In practice, she could call a vote of no confidence in her government and order her MPs to abstain at very short notice.

Why abstain? You risk the motion not passing if they abstain: you simply whip the party to vote in favour of the motion, therefore defeating yourself.

Abstaining is less politically embarrassing than voting no confidence in yourself. You can guarantee that at least some of the opposition MPs will vote no confidence in your government, and it's not really politically possible for them to vote in favour of your government.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#125

Post by zigzigzag »

sasvari wrote: post #100
zigzigzag wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically, yes. That's sort of like saying the British army ultimately answers to the Queen so the Queen could run the country as a dictatorship if she wanted to. It's not an argument rooted in the real world though. Queenie would be gone tomorrow if she tried that. The vast majority of the British voters do not like the EU. Most voted out and of those who voted remain, about half were motivated by simple fear of…

in the face of an EU that's already committed to screwing the UK Would you care to elaborate?

If the EU was in any way serious about continuing to collaborate with the UK after the vote, they'd be willing to start talks now, pre-notification, as the guy who wrote Article 50 has said it was deliberately designed to never be used. It's not a workable mechanism for leaving.

In fact they are acting as if the vote never happened and refusing to talk about anything at all until notification, thus doing their utmost to ensure the 2 years elapse with nothing done.

They're also briefing about "dirty brexit". Google it.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#126

Post by return0 »

astannard wrote: post #2

This put a big smile on my face. I do wonder how many people have had a change of heart after the facts came out.

Isn't the general stance still pro-brexit? If anything, this period has made brexit more acceptable to the eyes of everyone (it used to be taboo).

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#127

Post by osullivj »

hexiedexie wrote: post #56
UK-AL wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not many

6% of leave voters regret their choice according to an academic study published about a month ago, enough to swing the vote the other way.... And as the effects of a potential Brexit continue to bite, this percentage will only increase http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/brexit-bri...

There are also remain voters who wish they'd voted leave.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#128

Post by DocTomoe »

sasvari wrote: post #100
zigzigzag wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically, yes. That's sort of like saying the British army ultimately answers to the Queen so the Queen could run the country as a dictatorship if she wanted to. It's not an argument rooted in the real world though. Queenie would be gone tomorrow if she tried that. The vast majority of the British voters do not like the EU. Most voted out and of those who voted remain, about half were motivated by simple fear of…

in the face of an EU that's already committed to screwing the UK Would you care to elaborate?

Well, for one, the EU has (understandably) choosen very anti-Brexit negotiators, hinting at hard and unfruitful negotiations. I guess the UK would have loved if the EU sent Faragne...

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#129

Post by zimpenfish »

zigzigzag wrote: post #85
zimpenfish wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...and the referendum was purely advisory which means they can do whatever they wish.

Theoretically, yes. That's sort of like saying the British army ultimately answers to the Queen so the Queen could run the country as a dictatorship if she wanted to. It's not an argument rooted in the real world though. Queenie would be gone tomorrow if she tried that. The vast majority of the British voters do not like the EU. Most voted out and of those who voted remain, about half were motivated by simple fear of…

> The vast majority of the British voters do not like the EU.

That's a wild overstatement - 52% of the people who voted (which was about 40% of the eligible voters) voted to leave the EU, sure, but that's not nearly "the vast majority of British voters" by a long margin.

> Farage will return to UKIP and UKIP will absolutely slaughter the other parties

I would put money on this never happening.

Re: British Government loses Article 50 court fight

#130

Post by antouank »

bb101 wrote: post #123

Many people voted pro-Brexit in the referendum due to the increasing disparity and alienation between the ruling/political class and the rest of the country. By deferring the decision to a parliamentary majority, the High court has ensured that Brexit will not happen. That's a sound result for the politicians and chiefs of industry based in London, but what will it mean for the wider UK? Both the courts and parliamen…

> By deferring the decision to a parliamentary majority, the High court has ensured that Brexit will not happen.

By what logic?? Most reports says otherwise.

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