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The ruling makes available a sabateurs toolbox and could potentially delay Brexit for some time.
My bet is that the government don't appeal and then go onto put serious media pressure on parliament to pull the trigger quickly. Having said that I was definitely betting that the high court would pass this ...
- Invocation of Article 50 is likely to be delayed from Q1 as the legislation will go through parliament and the (hostile) House of Lords.
- A 'hard' Brexit is less likely due to incoming amendments from remainer MPs and Lords
It also increases the chances of a general election before Article 50 is invoked if the PM feels that MPs will force too many changes to her negotiating stance.
Of course this is all subject to appeal, and ironically, could eventually be decided by a European court!
Rather odd situation now. May was lukewarm on remaining, but may now be forced to whip her MPs into voting to leave. And the MPs will be under pressure to do as people had voted in the referendum. At the same time public opinion may well have moved.
I think it was quite arrogant from Theresa May to decide not to involve the Parliament in the first place. People did not give a blanket mandate to her for implementing whatever she thinks Brexit means.
This was frankly unexpected. I wonder what P(supreme=no|high=yes) ? If anyone knows please say. Will the gov bother appealing? The ruling makes available a sabateurs toolbox and could potentially delay Brexit for some time. My bet is that the government don't appeal and then go onto put serious media pressure on parliament to pull the trigger quickly. Having said that I was definitely betting that the high court woul…
Just in case you thought (foolishly) that democracy was a real thing.
The key thing comes down to what "block Article 50" means. If the Government decide to not give ground during the Parliamentary process and refuse to be bound on their negotiating strategy an election is pretty likely as I doubt they would get that through Parliament at the moment. That election would potentially enable May to purge some of the wetter Tories as well.
If you think this ruling is going to stop Brexit or is a victory against the Government I suspect you're going to be disappointed.