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George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

electrek.co

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Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#211

Post by jacquesm »

WhitneyLand wrote: post #189
patcheudor wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not mission critical, rather life critical. I've worked on several life critical systems as a security researcher, helping to develop controls in tightly controlled environments to keep people safe. Work on software controlled switches in industrial machines mostly. As I've followed these developments and those of Google and Tesla I've been wondering at times if I live in some alternate universe. The level of diligen…

If 10,000 people were killed on the way to making driverless cars safe, and this wild west approach ended up getting them into mass market use a few years earlier, it would save the lives of thousands of people overall. Is this a bad thing? Is it not justified by utilitarianism?

That would kill the driverless car concept.

See, we already have cars, it's not like we're going from 'horses and buggies' to cars, it is going from one good solution to an even better one and even though there is a risk at being stuck at the present local maximum for a little longer going down in order to find the peak of this particular mount improbable would not be an acceptable path for the majority of the public.

And without having a time machine or a functional crystal ball you won't know if it is 10K, 100K or a few million people that get killed before you get it right so the bar has been set at 'it needs to be better than the present level before it is acceptable'.

Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#212

Post by throwaway729 »

WhitneyLand wrote: post #189
patcheudor wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not mission critical, rather life critical. I've worked on several life critical systems as a security researcher, helping to develop controls in tightly controlled environments to keep people safe. Work on software controlled switches in industrial machines mostly. As I've followed these developments and those of Google and Tesla I've been wondering at times if I live in some alternate universe. The level of diligen…

If 10,000 people were killed on the way to making driverless cars safe, and this wild west approach ended up getting them into mass market use a few years earlier, it would save the lives of thousands of people overall. Is this a bad thing? Is it not justified by utilitarianism?

> If 10,000 people were killed on the way to making driverless cars safe, and this wild west approach ended up getting them into mass market use a few years earlier, it would save the lives of thousands of people overall.

This is a perfect example of the biggest and IMO most compelling critique of utilitarianism -- namely, that it's too susceptible to bullshitting.

People decide what they want to do, then completely invent (or, in more sophisticated cases, carefully fabricate) numbers and time-frames in order to hide their unethical opportunism behind the facade of objective moral assessment.

This is especially problematic when you have to estimate things that are pretty much impossible to estimate without completely bullshitting. For example, "number of people killed by not following certain safety standards", or "impact on time-to-completing of some particular safety standard". We're talking about a novel technology, so there's no way anyone has even remotely high confidence in a sufficiently bounded estimate of these numbers. It's all just bullshitting.

> Is thus a bad thing? Is it not justified by utilitarianism?

These are two VERY different questions.

Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#213

Post by abduhl »

mikeash wrote: post #193
abduhl wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument is a red herring. We know the current casualty rate and have accepted it. Nobody gets into a car with the illusion that it's 100% safe.

And if technology reduces that casualty rate, why does the fact that it's new suddenly make it unacceptable?

I didn't say that. My question was: what is the casualty rate currently and what is the casualty rate in the self-driving car future? I am asking what you think this reduction actually is and how high of a price you're willing to pay to see that reduction. I am specifically asking what you think the reduction is so that we can have a discussion on 1) whether that is a realistic reduction and 2) whether that is, in turn, worth the price. It has nothing to do with whether or not it's new.

Is that reduction a result of self driving or advances in other safety (airbags, seat-belts, crumple zones)?

It is clear that your mind is already made up and that you are a self driving car evangelist. Please endeavor to approach these debates with an open mind and in good faith.

Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#215

Post by got2surf »

6stringmerc wrote: post #163
defen wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just saying that there are many cases where "a single instance of a journalist having a good experience with a revolutionary pre-release product" turned out to have been the company deliberately misleading the journalist. I'm not claiming that happened here, but I am claiming there is a non-negligible chance it happened.

Fair enough, I'm not trying to say the profession is 100% on the up and up and you're right, people can be manipulated. That doesn't mean it's reasonable to prima-face like you did and dismiss a journalist's impressions (being cited on an Auto enthusiast site mind you) as worthless. It just struck a nerve because I'm a pretty cynical person but do my best to weigh what I've seen / gathered, and while I do admit I thi…

I'd agree with this. The journalist in question (Alex Roy, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Roy) is an auto enthusiast and race driver, and is well respected even in auto enthusiast circles, which are notoriously anti-self-driving-cars.

Journalists can be manipulated, but Alex Roy's tweet (https://twitter.com/AlexRoy144/status/791996855114694657) is more an endorsement by a car enthusiast with 30+ years of high performance driving experience than a journalist, IMO.

Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#216

Post by taco_emoji »

mikeash wrote: post #167
abduhl wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an ends justify the means argument. How many lives have been saved TO DATE with self driving cars? How many lives will be saved IN THE FUTURE with self driving cars? What is the acceptable casualty rate to get from where we are now to where you think we will be in the future. Is your family an acceptable casualty? If not, then why is mine?

"Is your family an acceptable casualty?" is a pointless question. It can be applied equally well to the opposite argument: what is the acceptable casualty rate for not advancing safety in this way? Is your family an acceptable casualty? Continuing on with the status quo is just as much of an action and a choice as pushing forward with automation. Both choices are going to get people killed. We can either evaluate the…

> Continuing on with the status quo is just as much of an action and a choice as pushing forward with automation

Of course, but public perception is, you know... not largely logic-oriented. Whether or not you personally find @abduhl's argument convincing, there's still that emotional hurdle you'd have to clear to convince significant numbers of people to sign up.

Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#217

Post by toomuchtodo »

slg wrote: post #201
Analemma_ wrote: post #16

He's currently throwing a temper tantrum on Twitter, and all because the NHTSA wanted to ask him a few questions about the product (you can see it here: https://www.scribd.com/document/329218929/2016-10-27-Special... ). Like, how dare the government try to have basic standards for multi-ton hunks of metal hurtling down the highway without human input. I've been trying to convince people lately that Silicon Valley isn…

I wrote the below less than 12 hours ago for another post still currently on the front page and it is just as appropriate here with the simple change of a company name. The arrogance of our industry seems to be growing. >One of the biggest flaws of the tech industry is the belief that being a tech expert is enough to disrupt other industries in which they don't have any expertise. Sometimes they get lucky and it work…

There's still time for AirBnB and Uber to fall in the latter camp. Some have more runway than others.

Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#218

Post by digler999 »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #180
abduhl wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"As you are undoubtedly aware, there is a high likelihood that some drivers will use your product in a manner that exceeds its intended purpose." The government appears well aware of this hand waving garbage that companies are trying with "it isn't really autopilot, keep your hands on the wheel wink ." This is exactly government's job and is a fabulous example of a government reacting to ongoing events that have prov…

Proof that so-called autopilot systems are a danger to the public would be evidence that they perform worse than the average driver. I haven't seen such evidence, what are you referencing?

so we should wait till a statistically-significant percentage of people die before we tell everyone, "yep, definitely dangerous. Lets add some regulation" ?

I wonder if they could shut him down on the basis of car insurance requirements and the legal definition of "driver". If "driver" is defined as the "person" inputting control commands, then either you dont consider the computer a person, and then nobody is legally "driving" the car, or else the software somehow meets the definition of a "person" or driver, in which case its an unlicensed driver operating the vehicle and insurance may not have to cover it.

Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#219

Post by mikeash »

abduhl wrote: post #213
mikeash wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if technology reduces that casualty rate, why does the fact that it's new suddenly make it unacceptable?

I didn't say that. My question was: what is the casualty rate currently and what is the casualty rate in the self-driving car future? I am asking what you think this reduction actually is and how high of a price you're willing to pay to see that reduction. I am specifically asking what you think the reduction is so that we can have a discussion on 1) whether that is a realistic reduction and 2) whether that is, in tu…

My mind is made up only because I'm pretty sure the casualty rate will be sharply lower. Humans are horrible at driving.

As for your question, you basically destroyed the conversation when you asked "Is your family an acceptable casualty?" If you just wanted numbers, you shouldn't have made it personal like that. That's all my point is here.

Re: George Hotz cancels his Tesla Autopilot-like ‘comma one’

#220

Post by komali2 »

abduhl wrote: post #144
hartator wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel $21,000 fine per day sounds pretty like "we want to shut you down". He never presented comma.ai as an autopilot but as a very smart line assist and adaptive cruise control.

"As you are undoubtedly aware, there is a high likelihood that some drivers will use your product in a manner that exceeds its intended purpose." The government appears well aware of this hand waving garbage that companies are trying with "it isn't really autopilot, keep your hands on the wheel wink ." This is exactly government's job and is a fabulous example of a government reacting to ongoing events that have prov…

>inherently a danger

Can you expand on how they are an inherent danger, rather than a possible danger? I only challenge you because Tesla has published several occasions where Autopilot has possibly saved lives by auto-braking.

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