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Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

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Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#41

I'd encourage everyone reading the AMA to take a lot of what Musk is saying with a grain of salt. The Interplanetary Transport System (ITS) is a wildly ambitious project that is attempting to accomplish more things in a shorter period of time than the Apollo program (and on a substantially smaller budget to boot). Check out Robert Zubrin's article, which presents a much more salient critique of SpaceX's current plans…

Zubrin starts by misrepresenting the Spaceship as two inseparable stages, and overestimates the mass of the motors by a factor of three.

He then claims that ISRU is impractical due to hypothetical resource constraints.

Zubrin then claims that the Spaceship is a "habitat" that should only go one way. SpaceX has decided that the habitat should be built on Mars from indigenous materials. A one-way Spaceship is vastly more expensive than a reusable one.

Zubrin dismisses fast transit to Mars entirely on the basis of not being a free-return trajectory with a symmetric time span (6 months out, 6 months back). The free return is only if use if the spacecraft is not going to land. The number of failure modes where the Spaceship can't land on Mars but can still manoeuvre into Earth orbit are very small. The Spaceship is designed for aerobraking and landing, not orbital capture.

He then goes on to criticise the four-month express crew transfer as having no payload capacity, when the intent was only to show that rapid crew transfer is possible. The benefit of the shorter trip is less exposure to harmful radiation. The assumption is that sufficient resources already exist on Mars to house and feed the new arrivals.

A multi-component system as proposed by Zubrin with an Earth-Mars transport with separate craft for leaving Earth and landing on Mars adds far more complexity, more moving parts, more ways for things to fail.

The SpaceX monolithic approach us safer simply because there are fewer things that can go wrong.

Zubrin's supposed improvements are to split the Spaceship into propulsion and habitation modules, with the habitation module having its own vacuum engines for Mars intercept and landing, and then some way of splitting those motors away from the habitat upon landing so they can be cannibalised or returned to Earth.

Which is to say, Zubrin has spent so much time evangelising Mars Direct that he no longer considers any other option as valid.

SpaceX are pursuing the engineering goal of sending large payloads to Mars and back to Earth with best use of resources. They want the incremental cost of moving people and things around the solar system to be as low as possible. Zubrin wants a single transit to be as low cost as possible, meaning use of disposable spacecraft, meaning higher costs overall.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#42
post #29

I am sure Elon Musk won't get the chance to answer my reddit question, since apparently the reddit mob downvoted me to death, so I am asking here, perhaps anyone knows. 1) What RTOS does SpaceX use for the embedded hardware on board? I know they use a lot of Linux, but not for hard real time stuff. What are they running on their microcontrollers? 2) Is it programmed in C, or some other language? 3) Is the embedded eq…

I'm sorry but dozens, maybe hundreds of other questions were more deserving - this ama is about sending a rocket to mars not about their IT stack...

We are all a bit scarred after the IAC debacle, perhaps that explains the downvotes.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> he seems to have very little concern for radiation shielding both during the trip to Mars or on the Martian surface. I find it hard to believe his team have not considered something so obvious. This seems like one of those statements that assumed the experts are a bit stupid. Just because he hasn't specifically mentioned it doesn't mean it is not considered. And sure somethings are probably not considered, but some…

> "The radiation thing is often brought up, but I think it’s not too big of a deal" AFAIK no one else within the community would think of saying that. I'm sure that there are people within SpaceX studying this and taking it into consideration, but my concern is mostly with Musk's cavalier attitude towards individual safety.

Let me get this straight:

1) You imagine what's going on in Elon's head 2) You complain about it on HN 3) You expect other people to care about your fantasy 4) ... 5) ???

There are multiple hard-to-solve problems involved in sending humans to Mars. Complaining that Elon didn't give sufficient weight to your favorite problem in his executive summary is not that interesting.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#45
post #29

I am sure Elon Musk won't get the chance to answer my reddit question, since apparently the reddit mob downvoted me to death, so I am asking here, perhaps anyone knows. 1) What RTOS does SpaceX use for the embedded hardware on board? I know they use a lot of Linux, but not for hard real time stuff. What are they running on their microcontrollers? 2) Is it programmed in C, or some other language? 3) Is the embedded eq…

I've heard its C++ at spaceX, they had a company standard C++ interview test.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#46
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally don't think that I have a lack of understanding of what Musk has claimed or SpaceX has demonstrated, and I'm incredibly skeptical of their ability to safely deliver on their promises within his proposed timeline. I'd quite like to be proven wrong, spaceflight is an area very near and dear to my heart, but from my point of view Musk's reach appears to vastly exceed his grasp. EDIT: I did enjoy the AMA tho…

Totally fair to be skeptical; not very impressive though unless you have detailed cause. Not quite as fair, or impressive to make comments like these with no effort or backing: >Glass domes and underground Martian tunnels make for some very interesting science fiction, but I'm concerned about the engineering challenges that he seems to be ignoring in favor of his grand statements of intent. The AMA, and even that spe…

> The AMA, and even that specific question was all about the engineering challenges...

Re: that specific question, I may just have a different view of what constitutes a question on engineering challenges.

That AMA is of exceptional caliber, however, and there are definitely some gems to be found (see [0] and [1], in particular).

The fuel tank and rocket tech represent novel advances in rocket tech that are as-yet untested, afaik. A scaled-down test stand prototype and a prototype of a composite tank are certainly worthy of praise, but they still require an enormous amount of work to turn into a functioning product.

I'd also like to qualify some of my statements here: I don't think _any_ of these challenges are insurmountable. However I think that it would be impossible for all of them to be addressed on the time scale that Musk proposes, for the amount of money he has stated, with the manpower that SpaceX possesses.

[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu...

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/590wi9/i_am_elon_mu...

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#47
post #9

The leaders of the most powerful nations on Earth are barely starting to talk about some small human missions to Mars and then there is Elon, casually discussing glass domes and tunneling drones creating underground networks on Mars. Truly incredible.

Right!? Like, i have tons of respect for the guy, but the amount of press and attention that they get just by saying "we are going to mars" are crazy! Nothing practical to show, i would be more interested in a mission to build up a base at moon first. But hey! This is show business, what we losers can possible know!?

"Nothing practical to show" ... I think you may be misinformed. There are a great deal of practical advancements (raptor engine, carbon fiber tanks, software and sensor suites that enable autonomous landing). There's tons of room for discussion around the mars architecture but to discount it because there's "nothing practical to show" is incorrect.

If you're not an expert in the field it might be worth it to do some research before immediately discounting an idea.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#48
post #29

I am sure Elon Musk won't get the chance to answer my reddit question, since apparently the reddit mob downvoted me to death, so I am asking here, perhaps anyone knows. 1) What RTOS does SpaceX use for the embedded hardware on board? I know they use a lot of Linux, but not for hard real time stuff. What are they running on their microcontrollers? 2) Is it programmed in C, or some other language? 3) Is the embedded eq…

former SpaceX employee: There are a couple of YouTube videos around where they talk about the nature of the systems. I'm pretty sure I can't talk about it but I'll try to find the videos.

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#49
post #29

I am sure Elon Musk won't get the chance to answer my reddit question, since apparently the reddit mob downvoted me to death, so I am asking here, perhaps anyone knows. 1) What RTOS does SpaceX use for the embedded hardware on board? I know they use a lot of Linux, but not for hard real time stuff. What are they running on their microcontrollers? 2) Is it programmed in C, or some other language? 3) Is the embedded eq…

[deleted]

Re: Elon Musk SpaceX AMA

#50
I missed the AMA but I'll ask this here since people seem to be in the know. In the beginning, Spacex and the original merlin seemed to be all low tech, get it done (ie the merlin was ablative cooled chamber and nozzle). Now the ITS engine is super advanced.

I always wondered, why the turn around, and has Musk ever written or said anything about Truax's Sea Dragon[1] concept?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Dragon_(rocket)

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