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A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

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Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#61
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then it's not a one time-fee. More generally, your strategy only works if you're investing a large amount every time, it doesn't scale down. You can't put 10k into 5000 stocks, and even 500 stocks would be difficult.

> But then it's not a one time-fee. I meant one time per line, not per portfolio. > it doesn't scale down. It scales down just fine if you're willing to accept that you're going to pay a lot in broker fees, with the only consolation that you'll pay them only once per line in your portfolio. If you have say 500 stocks and pay like $10 in broker fees per stock, in the end you'll pay $5000. That's not the end of the wor…

At a 0.05% expense ratio, you need to hold $250k for 40 years to pay $5000, not to mention the extra fees if you want to rebalance as the market changes. It doesn't seem to make sense for lower-end investors, which are many of us.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#62
post #23

I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…

but that won't happen because companies will still have to disclose financials, and companies with poor fundamentals will be shorted by arbitragers. The pricing mechanism can never go away completely

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#63
post #22

I recommend Weathfront and Betterment to all my less mathematically inclined friends. However, if you spend only a few hours getting acquainted with asset allocation and rebalancing principles, you can do pretty everything that these services do without their fees.

And what do you recommend for your mathematically inclined friends? Any books you recommend for asset allocation and rebalancing principles?

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#64
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luck can be the actual explanation. By the law of the large numbers, some funds will be a success for quite some time. Just as some people do win the lottery. I don't think it's surprising that a couple of funds have a great track history even if the game is just pure luck.

How do you distinguish between pure luck and actual skills?

You cut that sentence short...

"How do you distinguish between pure luck, actual skills, and illegal manipulation?"

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#65

Being lucky doesn't explain the existence of Renaissance Technologies[1], one of the very first quant fund companies, which has averaged a 71.8% annual return from 1994 through mid-2014. In fact, "the fund’s worst year was a 21 percent gain, after subtracting fees". Of course, it's very much of an outlier — just like Facebook / Google / Uber, if we retrospectively see startup funding and hedge fund investing. [1]: ht…

this company is like citadel, which is that their main business is market making and non-directional trades. They dont pick directional investments, as most investors do. rather they are in the middle picking up pennies, except many billions of them. But these returns may be exaggerated or there is information missing...20% a year far exceeds the rate capital is being created by the global economy. At that rate, it would eventually own the world and all markets. I think their actual returns, assuming the fund still trades (its operations are very opaque) are much less...maybe 5-6% year. The bigger a fund gets, the more impact its trades have on markets, which limits its size

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#66
post #23

I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…

Well, you've always got insiders in the sense that most people know their own industry better than they know other industries. Passive funds are great when you want to diversify or lack knowledge.

But for example I've got a ton of money in cryptocurrency right now, it's my field and I've got way better-than-average knowledge about some of the coins. This helps me make informed investments, and I've been able to beat the passive rate by doing high risk investing into assets that were obviously priced incorrectly.

I'm not a day trader. I'm like the guy who goes about his way normally, but isn't afraid to pick up $20 off the ground when I see it. I spend some time looking for it, but it's not where I put most of my energy.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this conversation can really proceed in a sensible manner without the introduction of some numbers. Retail brokers typically charge a commission per trade. If you want to buy many different securities ('cuz diversification), and you don't have a whole lot of money to invest in the first place, you're going to end up paying a large percentage of your initial investment in commission. The exact amount wil…

> Another is that picking stocks is a time-consuming process Just buy them all. Or pick them randomly. Let me remind you that this thread started with an article about the guy who wrote about the blindfolded monkeys.

My guess is that he was being hyperbolic. But even if he weren't, you can still get something that has the same expected return over time as picking individual stocks at random for a much lower up-front price by choosing a total stock market ETF. Remember that he was writing that comment at a time when the latter option didn't exist.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> self-correcting as sophisticated investors would notice the pricing errors What was it Keynes said about rationality and being solvent?

Probably nothing: http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/

"There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world."

^^

He said that though.

Re: A Professor Who Was Right About Index Funds All Along

#70
post #23

I'm a big believer in index funds and have been putting my money into them for a long time. But... you have to wonder where this is all ending up as more and more people move to passive index funds. The power of the market is based on millions of individual opinions on the price of a company's stock. On average, over time, these collective opinions will be correct. But say in the extreme case, it got to the point whe…

> Individual stock prices would not reflect the true value of a company.

I would argue that this is already the case.

I invest solely in market-wide or top-75%-of-market-caps strategies (in stocks), because they're the only strategies that seem to accurately reflect my opinion of the markets:

1. The game is rigged.

2. People are dumb. (Especially me.)

Analysis of those strategies seems to indicate that they outperform even (traditional) index funds over long periods (likely because they're quicker to respond to risk/opportunity during transitional periods, eg, a new technology coming out). I like to think it's because my premises are true, but there's lots of other premises that lead to the same model of investing, so it's hard to say. (I think of them as a really diverse index fund, so at some level, it's really just the advice that Warren Buffet gave about long term investing.)

If everyone used this strategy the market would... basically do nothing once a company IPO'd, because everyone would hold a portion of every company forever (creating no selling once the initial bidding on IPO was over). That's not necessarily such a bad thing, because it would remove a lot of the noise that boards respond to while still incentivizing (healthy) long-term growth (because the only way the stock increases in value without trading and the current market gambling is from the underlying asset -- the corporation -- increasing in value, and distributing that as payouts or buybacks). There still is a valuation mechanism, however, because the passive funds do need to buy and sell when new stocks appear or someone is looking to change a position (which, is every IPO plus whatever is needed to generate cashflow from the portfolio), and how they negotiate that provides a value on the stock, even if they're just rolling shares they control between pools and clients of their own.

However, we'd still have the whole pipeline of pre-IPO private ownership, which definitely wouldn't settle in to the same kind of lock-in, but already uses the same kind of invest-across-the-board strategies.

So in short, I'm actually very unworried about the effects of main Wall St stock markets settling down due to most money being passively invested in long-term growth strategies, because it actually deincentivizes a lot of bad behavior on the part of trading firms. Much harder to execute your fraud if most people aren't going to react to it in any capacity, and won't be closing out their positions for 20-40 years, if ever. It's also perhaps easier to get a case to stick if you have basically every investor to choose a client from, because they'd all be impacted by those actions.

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