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How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

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Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#101
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The politics of Colorado, Florida, Oregon, Virginia & Washington have all noticeably undergone this effect over the past forty years. Heck, that effect was the entire reason for Bloody Kansas, with pro- and anti-slavery people moving into the territory in order to influence its politics. It's why the Free State Project exists. It's why some politicians want to decrease immigration, and others want to increase it. I'm…

Lets say a migrant population does in fact have some "dangerous idea" that the locals don't want. How big does that migrant population need to be before they have a sizable enough voting majority? Do the couple thousand people who moved from SF to Oregon or Seattle really really have the voting numbers to sway politics that much? It's the idea that's contagious, not the people. Disenfranchising transplants does not s…

> Do the couple thousand people who moved from SF to Oregon or Seattle really really have the voting numbers to sway politics that much?

It depends on how close the numbers were beforehand, right?

> Disenfranchising transplants does not stop the idea.

If they retain the franchise in their former states, then they're not disenfranchised.

I'm frankly astounded that so many people have reacted so negatively to this idea. TO me, it seems like common sense: the mere fact of moving somewhere doesn't make one a local. We require immigrants to our country to learn about American history & civics: why not immigrants to our states?

Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's the "character" of their neighborhood. > Somehow we've gotten into a cultural state where everyone expects the place they live to stay exactly as it is for their lifetime. I think this is just human nature. > It's totally implausible and destructive, but people fight for it anyways, even when it isn't in their financial interest. I disagree. Simply look at Europe or historical districts in the US. Its definite…

>I think this is just human nature. Probably, but I suspect we can trace the triumph of NIMBYism to the baby-boom reaching the "get off my lawn" age. >I disagree. Simply look at Europe or historical districts in the US. Its definitely not implausible, and only destructive to new citizens who want to live there (that don't have an existing vested interest in the area). If the area being "preserved" was limited in some…

>>I suspect we can trace the triumph of NIMBYism to the baby-boom reaching the "get off my lawn" age.

Doubtful. The majority of people hate change, and that has probably always been true. A large population influx inevitably causes change, both because of the number of people and because they are always culturally different to some extent. A lot of this used to get wrapped up in nationalism/racism. See US history of prejudice against the Irish, Italians, Poles, etc etc etc. Heck, we even had legal immigration caps on Chinese people.

The Boomers might just be the first to resist changes via zoning and regulation rather than more direct action.

Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#104
I'd venture to guess that the fundamental drivers of prices remain founded on desirability of the state relative to other states. These policies are certainly making it worse, but they are priced in, one way or the other.

You might think of it like a luxury tax. The item still sells at the total price, even though there is significant cost to acquire it. Either you can afford a $500,000 home or you can't. If you can, then consider living in California. If not, you've likely got 48* other states to choose from.

* Per Zillow, Hawaii's median home price is $571,000, is higher than California's $472,000.

Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#105

On the flip side, does this state have enough water for the other 10-odd million people who'd be living in those 3.6 million homes?

Uhh, yes. California might have to export a bit less alfalfa. The vast majority of water use is agricultural.

(This is not directly in reply to you. It's just something that bugs me about water use discussion, and your comment is a good place to attach it)

What I almost never see considered whenever I read an article on California's agricultural water use is what happens to the water.

For instance, I see it commonly cited that it takes one gallon (3.79 l) of water to grow one almond. OK, but note that an almond weighs about 1.2 g. A gallon of water weighs 3.79 kg, so clearly that gallon of water used to produce an almond does not actually all end up in the almond. At most, 0.03% of that water actually ends up in the almond, and so will leave the area when that almond is sent off to some distant market.

Where does the remaining 99.97% of that gallon go? Some presumably gets absorbed in the ground, and eventually ends up in the local aquifer, where it can come back via local wells to be used again for more crops. Some will be taken up by the plant and released into the atmosphere via the plant's respiration. Some will go onto the ground and evaporate into the atmosphere.

Some that ends up in the atmosphere will condense out locally. Some might end up in local rain. Some might end up in distant rain.

I'm sure there are plenty of other paths and cycles I'm overlooking.

My point is that we can't just say water was taken from X and dumped on crops at Y, and treat it as if that water is now lost forever. It's the system as a whole that has to be considered.

Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#106
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd prefer a market solution - fix the supply of water at the correct level You don't see any problems with this statement?

Most people who advocate "market solutions" always assume perfectly rational actors, and forget that they're basically making it so only the rich can do whatever it is they're advocating for.

The counter-party then has the money, though, which they can then exchange for doing what they want. Like, I'm fine if a rich person decides to use their money to decide how water gets allocated, as long as they spend enough money on it that it ends up paying for better alternatives for those affected by the changes. Even to the point where I'm unable to get drinking water in my home - they'd have to pay for me to take time off work indefinitely and stay somewhere really nice, sure, but I'd be okay with that.

Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#107

On the flip side, does this state have enough water for the other 10-odd million people who'd be living in those 3.6 million homes?

Yes, many times over. It doesn't have enough for twice the population while continuing the existing agriculture.

I think a good case can be made for prioritizing agriculture over population growth for California. California has some of the best soil in the world and some of the best climate for agriculture. It's just a bit short on water.

It's a lot easier to bring water to that soil and climate then to bring that soil and climate to someplace that has enough water.

People, on the other hand, are more flexible. We can thrive pretty much anywhere. So it makes some sense from a resource efficiency perspective to put the big population centers somewhere that doesn't have terrific agricultural potential, and utilize the great agricultural areas for agriculture.

Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#108
post #56

So, the case that expensive housing hurts California businesses is well stated and intuitive, (and I don't disagree) But I was considering a counter point the other day. Homeownership here means mid level engineers who have lived here a decade or two often have access to seven figure credit lines. What effect does this have on the entrepreneurial side of things here? To be clear, I am not putting this fourth as a ful…

>What effect does this have on the entrepreneurial side of things here? The effect is that an already privileged group is more privileged than they previously were (financial flexibility to try a startup), and those less privileged are driven away and forced to relocate. Here's my unformed thought from this: are startups hurting progressive/socialist movements in the US? Their benefit is that they're lean and efficie…

California does a lot to privilege long term homeowners over new buyers, which is the reason that the problem can't be solved simply by building density.

In a very real way, existing, long term homeowners are extracting value from newcomers, as the article points out, in part by pushing more of the tax burden on to new construction, and in part by restriction new construction entirely, which pushes up prices, without significantly increasing the tax burden for existing owners.

Many of these existing homeowners would otherwise been displaced by the boom. I have met many people working in service jobs who live in half million dollar plus houses. The tax scheme makes doing so possible; they are still paying taxes on one tenth of that... That was the intent of prop 13.

People who don't own and live outside of rent control cities have cause to complain, but the situation is set up to benefit existing owners.

The second paragraph of your post is more complex, and I don't have time to address it.

Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#109
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Once you start piling them up into high-rises, the revenue stream doesn't look that bad. Combine with earthquake regulations essentially limiting buildings to a small number of stories and ScottBurson's comment is pretty spot-on.

There are height limitations in most of Silicon Valley (except maybe downtown San Jose?) -- I think the limit here in Sunnyvale, for example, is eight stories -- but earthquakes are not the reason for them. People just want to preserve the suburban character of the area. How that can be done when a lot more people want to live here is not clear to me.

It's a bit more insidious than preserving the character. Tall residential towers generally require certain amount of parking spaces, which in turn require more expensive structural support for the (usually) underlying garage.

Developers would justify the cost of the parking structure by adding a few residential floors on top of the tower. But that's where height restrictions kick in and price out low-tier and middle-tier apartments, leaving room only for luxury, using SF as an example http://missionlocal.org/2016/10/neighbors-double-down-agains... "Coliver said her team concluded that developers could squeeze a maximum of 13 parking spots in the 12,000 square foot lot— but that would make the building “structurally not feasible,” since it would require removing the columns that support the structure. The cost for the hypothetical scenario? Coliver said $2.25 million — or $180,000 a stall."

So the long-term recipe for opposing any new development is:

1) Require certain minimum parking spaces per square feet built (already done in most cities).

2) Run the numbers for a minimally economically viable structure, calculate the total number of floors it would need with parking garage included.

3) Lobby for regulations that set the maximum height at N-1 floors.

4) Bingo, every tall structure is now economically unfeasible. Saves you a trip to the city hall to protest new development, as most developers come to the conclusion that the numbers don't make sense well before acquiring the land and permits.

Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?

#110
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think this is just human nature. Probably, but I suspect we can trace the triumph of NIMBYism to the baby-boom reaching the "get off my lawn" age. >I disagree. Simply look at Europe or historical districts in the US. Its definitely not implausible, and only destructive to new citizens who want to live there (that don't have an existing vested interest in the area). If the area being "preserved" was limited in some…

>But the reality is that new housing is simply illegal in every positive population growth city in the country. Las Vegas? To name one. High population growth. A lot of building.

Seattle. To name another.
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