On the flip side, does this state have enough water for the other 10-odd million people who'd be living in those 3.6 million homes?
Uhh, yes. California might have to export a bit less alfalfa. The vast majority of water use is agricultural.
How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
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Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#22The more prohibitively expensive California (and the Bay Area in particular) becomes, the better it is for the rest of the country - entrepreneurial talent has already started to relocate elsewhere, and I expect this trend to continue, perhaps even accelerate, in the future. There are advantages to having a single, super-dense concentration of business, marketing, and engineering talent but there are also (in my opin…
I agree with you, that it can help to have things spread apart. But, the competition for talent isn't nearly as high as people say it is. I still see companies trying to set up shop in SF and palo alto. VCs still prefer having companies in SV, even if it means double the labor cost. There's a slow migration of a few companies setting up satelite shops outside of the bay area, but it's not a mass migration. So even with this crazy housing situation, there still seems to be more than enough talent to hire up in the bay area.
Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#23The more prohibitively expensive California (and the Bay Area in particular) becomes, the better it is for the rest of the country - entrepreneurial talent has already started to relocate elsewhere, and I expect this trend to continue, perhaps even accelerate, in the future. There are advantages to having a single, super-dense concentration of business, marketing, and engineering talent but there are also (in my opin…
> the better it is for the rest of the country - entrepreneurial talent has already started to relocate elsewhere It's only better if they move elsewhere and refuse to vote for the same policies that caused the problems in the first place.
Down with San Francisco Bay!
(Which I agree is probably not a primary driver of housing problems in the Bay area, but geographic constraints make bad policy a lot worse)
Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the better it is for the rest of the country - entrepreneurial talent has already started to relocate elsewhere It's only better if they move elsewhere and refuse to vote for the same policies that caused the problems in the first place.
The problem is, when you move somewhere else, and you buy your home, you become the person that wants their home value maintained/protected. Are you going to vote against your own interests? If so, I applaud you. Otherwise, you're just distributing the problem across the country, as tech money flows through workers in secondary cities (inflating property prices in Austin, Denver, Boulder, Nashville, Portland, Seattle…
Money über alles, as they say. No other way to live. Get that cash.
Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#25The more prohibitively expensive California (and the Bay Area in particular) becomes, the better it is for the rest of the country - entrepreneurial talent has already started to relocate elsewhere, and I expect this trend to continue, perhaps even accelerate, in the future. There are advantages to having a single, super-dense concentration of business, marketing, and engineering talent but there are also (in my opin…
> the better it is for the rest of the country - entrepreneurial talent has already started to relocate elsewhere It's only better if they move elsewhere and refuse to vote for the same policies that caused the problems in the first place.
No, it will keep expanding, until the market is tapped out. There will always be a boundary outside of that wave.
Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the better it is for the rest of the country - entrepreneurial talent has already started to relocate elsewhere It's only better if they move elsewhere and refuse to vote for the same policies that caused the problems in the first place.
The problem is, when you move somewhere else, and you buy your home, you become the person that wants their home value maintained/protected. Are you going to vote against your own interests? If so, I applaud you. Otherwise, you're just distributing the problem across the country, as tech money flows through workers in secondary cities (inflating property prices in Austin, Denver, Boulder, Nashville, Portland, Seattle…
Yes, we are in agreement it seems.
Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#27> you’re in the hole by at least $50,000 before you even put a shovel in the ground So, the equivalent of people's downpayment in the rest of the country is lost to regulation. That's insane.
50K isn't that much if we are talking about a development where that cost is spread over dozens of homes. It's possible they just misspoke, but the quote about Chico did not say "per home." Meanwhile in my home town of Fremont, a developer is putting in hundreds of new homes in North Fremont, and the school district has no way to charge those homes enough to actually build a school for them. The four nearest elementa…
>> but the quote about Chico did not say "per home."
And yet the next sentences are:
"Typical fees in San Francisco are $72,600 per home; in Sacramento, they’re $62,000. And for the six California markets highlighted in the Zelman & Associates report, the average is $51,650."
Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#28On the flip side, does this state have enough water for the other 10-odd million people who'd be living in those 3.6 million homes?
I keep waiting for California to go the way of Israel and have more fresh water than they need. It would really help out the West if the coast could make use of the water that is right next to them. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the...
Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the better it is for the rest of the country - entrepreneurial talent has already started to relocate elsewhere It's only better if they move elsewhere and refuse to vote for the same policies that caused the problems in the first place.
The problem is, when you move somewhere else, and you buy your home, you become the person that wants their home value maintained/protected. Are you going to vote against your own interests? If so, I applaud you. Otherwise, you're just distributing the problem across the country, as tech money flows through workers in secondary cities (inflating property prices in Austin, Denver, Boulder, Nashville, Portland, Seattle…
It isn't their home value they are protecting though. Increasing the zoning limit on a plot only causes its value to increase. It's the "character" of their neighborhood.
Somehow we've gotten into a cultural state where everyone expects the place they live to stay exactly as it is for their lifetime. It's totally implausible and destructive, but people fight for it anyways, even when it isn't in their financial interest.
Re: How did an entire state price itself out for entry-level home buyers?
#30Central Valley was sort of ground zero for housing meltdown, since we are talking here about the entire state, places like Modesto which are about 2-3 hours from SFO are also out of reach for population? That is surprising, Central Valley is predominantly Agri, but when people of thinking of flying all the way to Colorado, why not move 3 hours East or South ?
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