Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
1–10 of 159 posts
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#2Is it a real increase in revenue or just smoke and mirrors from shifting Office revenue again?
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#3If you look at the numbers their cash over the past few years have been relatively stable about ~24 billion in FCF. Now if we model that as a Perpetuity with 10% rate which has been historical rate of the market we get 24/.1=240 (not including inflation) if we add Net Tang Assets and some tax benefits if we write down goodwill we we end up with 56billion. However MSFT is trading for 450 billion. Where is this extra 150 billion coming from? Cloud has about 10% margin I don't see how the numbers add up.
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#4This is not a bubble. Let's not talk about a bubble.
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#5Is it a real increase in revenue or just smoke and mirrors from shifting Office revenue again?
I wonder this too. Suppose you switch a product from one purchase of $120 to $10/month.
In the first case, you can forecast $120 for every time a person buys the product. (Once every few years), so $120/2 years
However, with $10/mo, you can forecast for every month in the upcoming years. So $240/2 years.
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#6Is it a real increase in revenue or just smoke and mirrors from shifting Office revenue again?
I wonder this too. Suppose you switch a product from one purchase of $120 to $10/month. In the first case, you can forecast $120 for every time a person buys the product. (Once every few years), so $120/2 years However, with $10/mo, you can forecast for every month in the upcoming years. So $240/2 years.
You guys know that institutional Wall Street investors aren't total idiots, right? They know this as well as you do. On the earnings call yesterday, more than one person specifically asked about the impact on revenue numbers of the migration from one-off to recurring payments, and seemed satisfied with the answers they got.
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#7Is it a real increase in revenue or just smoke and mirrors from shifting Office revenue again?
Only service I have really seen being used is O365 emails. Rest of the Azure is not really being used by most of our customer. They are still dipping their toes in water so yeah it look like smoke and mirrors. At least in my anecdotal experience.
Edit: I don't have an issue with down votes but seems like some people are angry. I just shared my experience.Can Microsoft show what is the revenue growth in absolute terms.They are including Azure credits into the Enterprise License Agreement and calling it cloud revenue. Availability of free credits does not translate into adoption necessarily. Enterprise customers are still evaluating the how costs will look like over a period of time.
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#8If you look at the numbers their cash over the past few years have been relatively stable about ~24 billion in FCF. Now if we model that as a Perpetuity with 10% rate which has been historical rate of the market we get 24/.1=240 (not including inflation) if we add Net Tang Assets and some tax benefits if we write down goodwill we we end up with 56billion. However MSFT is trading for 450 billion. Where is this extra 1…
In this era of low interest rates, you might model the above with a 7% rate instead of 10%, and then you get closer.
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#9Is it a real increase in revenue or just smoke and mirrors from shifting Office revenue again?
Only service I have really seen being used is O365 emails. Rest of the Azure is not really being used by most of our customer. They are still dipping their toes in water so yeah it look like smoke and mirrors. At least in my anecdotal experience. Edit: I don't have an issue with down votes but seems like some people are angry. I just shared my experience.Can Microsoft show what is the revenue growth in absolute terms…
Google reported revenue of $20.76 billion last quarter, but I don't use Google as my search engine, so I'm pretty skeptical of this number.
Re: Microsoft Shares Soar to Record on Earnings Boost From Cloud
#10But, I thought pg said Microsoft was dead.