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All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

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Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#971

Post by lagadu »

mtgx wrote: post #745
vkou wrote: post #724

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's just hilarious the contortions of logic people will go to in order to put Musk down. It's probably because there is a substantial gap between what Musk spins, and reality. Take Tesla 3 pre-orders, for instance. Tesla spins 400,000 pre-orders for a car that you might not receive in the next three years as the most amazing innovation in automobile manufacturing. Historically, there have been a few other companie…

> Take Tesla 3 pre-orders, for instance. Tesla spins 400,000 pre-orders for a car that you might not receive in the next three years as the most amazing innovation in automobile manufacturing. Because it kind of is when we're talking about an electric car. Tesla's competitors can't come up with those numbers for EVs combined (even with hybrids). GM is expected to make 30,000 Bolts for next year, for instance (and it…

> Because it kind of is when we're talking about an electric car. Tesla's competitors can't come up with those numbers for EVs combined (even with hybrids).

Check your sources, we're at well over a million EV/PHEVs[0] combined nowadays and the model S is a bit over 10% of that. It's been a while since I last saw an EV parking spot with chargers that was empty.

Now that I checked it, the Leaf alone is past those numbers for the Model 3.[1]

[0] http://gas2.org/2015/09/22/1-million-electric-cars-now-in-th...

[1] http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/channels/Global-Sales...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#972

Post by Tepix »

bboreham wrote: post #963
tempestn wrote: post #925

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The iPhone was the first smartphone without a physical keyboard, allowing for a much more functional screen in a convenient form factor, right? I recall it seeming like a non-trivial difference at the time, and clearly a game-changing one.

I had a Sony Ericsson P800 in 2003: http://cdn2.gsmarena.com/vv/pics/sonyericsson/snp800_00.jpg

I had one too. It had a pen, it was not really usable without it.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#973

Post by tonylemesmer »

maxerickson wrote: post #597
tonylemesmer wrote: post #589

"The person in the driver seat is only there for legal reasons" - how do Tesla reconcile this with the "summon" feature? How can they market the summon feature and say the Tesla could find you on the other side of the country unless it has someone in the driving seat touching the steering wheel?

It's a demonstration of the technology they have, not of the technology that will be available to consumers tomorrow (the hardware is in the cars, the software isn't). Part of getting the software deployed will be figuring out the legal situation.

I see. Yes on their website it says "...on private property."

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#974

Post by wcummings »

ajmurmann wrote: post #694
wcummings wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I look forward to riding my bike 10mph in front of driverless cars. This is one of the few things that excites me about driverless cars. People should be driving below the limit (and the limits should be about 10mph lower in a lot of places) for pedestrian safety. The fatality rate drops precipitously around 20mph.

I agree that city driving is a more complicated issue. Freeway speed limits are a much easier case, but maybe I'm just missing driving on the Autobahn.

I think the real win is proper spacing, not increased speeds. Human drivers are really good at tailgating and causing bunching.

Higher speeds mean a longer following distance, which might not be a win on urban highways.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#975

Post by georgespencer »

BWStearns wrote: post #634
dyarosla wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see this pro cross-talk argument all the time... but wouldn't that leave open a big vulnerability for bad actors to send false data between cars and, if they should choose to, control multiple vehicles and cause collisions?

I would hope that the vehicles trust their own sensors before trusting the claims of other cars. The most a car should be able to lie convincingly about should be its intentions since they're unobservable. If car A says "I'm going to let you take this left" and car B tries taking the left and then car A tries to ram them, car B should ideally take evasive action (braking or speeding up) as it would from a human drive…

Those are emergency situations, though. I'm talking specifically about a model for cooperative decision making between AI wherein the AI has access to data from both sets of sensors (in its most limited example), and is therefore able to make a superior decision to if it had only its own data.

Simple scenario to illustrate this: car X enters a narrow bidirectional road which is lined with cars. There is enough room only for one car to pass at a time, safely. Car Y enters from the other end. Several more cars enter behind car Y (we'll call these Y1, Y2, Y3, Y4).

One car must reverse back down the road from the midway point, in order for any cars to pass through.

Car X and its driver cannot see what is behind car Y, but for car Y to reverse it must rely on Y1, Y2, Y3, and Y4 reversing. In order for this to happen, Y4 must first reverse despite not being able to see why it needs to reverse (either through meat or tech sensors).

The optimal solution is that sensor data reviewed in the aggregate by each car leads to a cooperative decision that car X should reverse until it can pull over, and allow the other cars to pass before proceeding.

In an emergency situation it's also possible to envisage scenarios in which shared data analysis and cooperative decision making are optimal. For example, consider cars X and Y now destined for a high speed, head-on collision. The right lane of the road (car X's right, car Y's left) is clear and the left lane (car X's left, car Y's right) is a deep trench. A primitive or non collaborative AI might suggest that both cars swerve to the same direction to avoid collision, which results in a collision of similar magnitude. A better solution than swerving the two cars into each other might be to swerve one into the ditch and one into the road. The optimal solution is likely to swerve only one car and hard stop the other, knowing that the other car is going to move its direction of travel significantly. This can only be done by giving the cars the ability to make decisions collaboratively.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#976

Post by hysterix »

rsync wrote: post #590
kriro wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose it's a similar argument as answering the question "why shouldn't sicker people pay way higher insurance premiums instead of driving up the average cost". For health insurance I think the pool of insured people to protect against black swan type problems is reasonable and ethical (it protects people with birth defects etc.). However for car insurances I feel like this argument doesn't hold as your driving be…

"I suppose it's a similar argument as answering the question "why shouldn't sicker people pay way higher insurance premiums instead of driving up the average cost"." I don't think that is a good analogy ... many "sicker" people have played no role in their sickness which may not be related to behavior or decisions. A better analogy would be: Why don't mountain climbers and scuba divers[1] pay higher insurance rates ?…

I know this was just a hypothetical question but as a scuba diver I actually pay for a completely separate insurance on top of my standard health plan called DAN insurance: http://www.diversalertnetwork.org/insurance/dive/

So stuff like a helicopter evac, access to a hyperbaric chamber and the ability to call a number and speak to a doctor who specializes in diving related illness means I already do pay more for insurance than someone who isn't a diver.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#977

Post by di4na »

petra wrote: post #419
di4na wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclaimer : i work on one of these car manufacturers IT departement, in close link with the "connected car" team. The reasons are multiple. 1) building and upgrading a car model take them at least 2 years... in the meantime, they have time to clock the kilometers anyway. 2) They have no idea how to build that type of data "massive" environment. They just don't know. Like all our "connected car" data came onto one si…

Do you see similar behavior from the big guys like GM who seem committed to self-driving , investing tons in buying startups ,etc ?

Yes.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#978

Post by p1esk »

sbierwagen wrote: post #809
aerovistae wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…

If we're continuing the iPhone metaphor from the GP, note that Apple is almost always late to a market segment. When the iPhone was released, Windows CE had owned the smartphone segment for years. The iPod was hardly the first hard drive mp3 player. Apple Watch wasn't the first smart watch. Etc etc etc. Apple makes good products, not innovative ones. It is not at all unthinkable that someone else will release a bette…

It's quite possible that just like Apple beat others by making good phones/laptops, it will beat others by making a better self driving car!

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#979

Post by jwebb99 »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #957
woodpanel wrote: post #755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's just hilarious the contortions of logic people will go to in order to put Musk down. As much as I anticipate more cool stuff from Tesla, one could say the same about akin-ness of people to find everything that Tesla does "super innovative" and "revolutionary" while the same features already existed in other cars for quite some time. I actually laughed out loud when I saw the Headline of this submission "Tesla…

Eh, I don't think it's HN being fond of Tesla. I think it's just that Tesla (rather, Elon Musk) is very good at grabbing headlines and people are sometimes not as well informed about the state-of-the-art as they wish they were. Same thing happens with other companies of course. Er, Apple, in particular. If you ask most people "what was the first smartphone?", they will probably say "the first iPhone"... even though t…

> They just never caught on in the same way as the iPhone did. It's marketing, innit. I don't think you can win against it.

The iPhone is synonymous with smartphone technology because its debut was a quantum leap ahead of the competition at the time (Blackberry, Palm, etc.). Google was working on a phone that used a physical keyboard until they saw the iPhone announcement and then quickly modified Android to ape iPhone/iOS.

I'm really sick of people trying to downplay Apple's innovations as nothing more than slick packaging and marketing. It's a stupid meme that refuses to die.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#980

Post by jayjay71 »

xiphias wrote: post #406
jayjay71 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory, sure. But you're effectively saying computers have to process vision as well as humans, which some experts think is comparable to solving AI. I'm not saying Tesla won't make a lot of progress, but considering how many decades of research has gone into this very problem (I worked on it at Carnegie Mellon as a graduate student, and they've been doing it since the 80's) it will likely take longer than most pe…

Researchers already passed human level image classification performance in 2015. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1502.01852.pdf

That's a really cool paper. While I wouldn't say they're doing better than a human (I really think they're twisting semantics with that one), it is impressive and I hope to see a lot more progress in this area. Thank you for sharing!
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