31–39 of 39 posts
One very good prediction market is Hypermind [1]: * It's not an open panel. You can apply for an account, but you will be screened. This removes the noise from people who just want to try out prediction markets. * Contestants don't play for real money. I believe this improves predictions by removing biases due to having real financial stakes in the outcomes. I also like the fact that it's a real prediction market bas…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It was very close, something like 51:49. The predictions circulating before the vote may have influenced the result. Apparently more Remainers would have bothered to vote if the predictions had not been so clearly in favor of Remain. It's a tragedy, really, that something so important would be decided on so flippantly. This, by the way, is another weakness (or limitation) of prediction markets. They should probably n…
Or more of the exiters would have voted if they weren't discouraged by being told it was a big loss. That sword cuts both ways.
And nobody predicted a big loss - it was going to be close either way.
It's worth pointing out that X% of people betting an event will happen is not the same thing as an event having X% chance of happening. The former is an estimate of occurrence and the latter is a measure of the occurrence. This is a common conflation with statistics I hear when people talk about predictions.
> X% of people betting an event will happen You may be well aware of this, but in case you aren't, that isn't the value that prediction markets give. The value that prediction markets give is based on the odds people are willing to bet at, not the proportion of people willing to bet in what direction. If any risk neutral (in terms of currency) individual believes that their predictions are better than the prediction…
The "guess the number of jelly beans in a jar" game gave its name to one of the startups whose failure disappointed me the most, Beansight. In 2010, it was asking people their opinion on various topics, attributing them experience points when they guessed right, and using this information about the expertise of its users to improve its predictions.
how'd they fail?
To monetize I know they had tried a model of sponsored predictions: http://blog.beansight.com/post/6171212673/beansight-hit-its-...
They finally ended up Open Sourcing the code: http://blog.beansight.com/post/85724048548/beansight-is-now-...
One very good prediction market is Hypermind [1]: * It's not an open panel. You can apply for an account, but you will be screened. This removes the noise from people who just want to try out prediction markets. * Contestants don't play for real money. I believe this improves predictions by removing biases due to having real financial stakes in the outcomes. I also like the fact that it's a real prediction market bas…
One very good prediction market is Hypermind [1]: * It's not an open panel. You can apply for an account, but you will be screened. This removes the noise from people who just want to try out prediction markets. * Contestants don't play for real money. I believe this improves predictions by removing biases due to having real financial stakes in the outcomes. I also like the fact that it's a real prediction market bas…
> Prediction markets have also had some high-profile misfires, however — such as giving the odds of a Brexit ‘stay’ vote as 85% on the day of the referendum I'm continuously annoyed by this. The prediction was 85%, not 100%. I'm guessing if you looked at all the 85% predictions, about 15% of the time the other outcome happened. That's what 85% means, after all. You can't just round all predictions to the nearest inte…
That's what 85% probability means.
In this context the 85/15% is not a probability - it's a prediction representing the educated guess of a bunch of people about the actual probability.
Which is to say, the probability of people being right or wrong about an event's probability is not the same as the probability of that event.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with your logic but perhaps they consider the magnitude of the actual Brexit referendum vote to refute the prediction 'stay' likelihood of 85%. I don't know how close the election was (IIRC it was fairly close), I'm just stating that many people might consider a landslide in the other direction to mean that the prediction was flawed. OTOH maybe people misinterpreted the 'stay' likelihood itself as the ratio o…
It was very close, something like 51:49. The predictions circulating before the vote may have influenced the result. Apparently more Remainers would have bothered to vote if the predictions had not been so clearly in favor of Remain. It's a tragedy, really, that something so important would be decided on so flippantly. This, by the way, is another weakness (or limitation) of prediction markets. They should probably n…
If so, it was an even bigger tragedy when the UK joined the EU in the first place, there was NO vote for that.
One very good prediction market is Hypermind [1]: * It's not an open panel. You can apply for an account, but you will be screened. This removes the noise from people who just want to try out prediction markets. * Contestants don't play for real money. I believe this improves predictions by removing biases due to having real financial stakes in the outcomes. I also like the fact that it's a real prediction market bas…
Without real money, it's useless imo. At least with something like betfair, one vote = £1 so you only vote big when you know something, which moves the market and incorporates your opinion the appropriate amount.