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All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

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Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#931
post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think americans are going to get left behind in this technology. It's not just the crumbling infrastructure, it's the lack of public transport options. I expect there will be plenty of cities around the world that will be adopting self-driving car technology long before the US does.

Surely lack of mass transit would be a boon to self-driving cars. Public transportation makes owning a car — self-driving or otherwise — less necessary.

The people who use public transport are much more likely to be users of share drive services. The target people for this technology, at least at the beginning, aren't going to be suburban or rural people, but urban people, and especially people with constraints such as no garage's or associated services and infrastructure. Any walk around New York, Singapore, or London, will demonstrate this.

These people will already be using public transport. They won't want to own a car if they don't need to. They'll want the convenience of a car, without the inconvenience of parking it and owning it. As more people do it, the costs associated with doing alternate things will increase (except, probably, for public transport). As less infrastructure is available for cars that sit empty all day in car parks, that empty-car infrastructure will get more expensive. When some bright spark recognizes that the space now occupied by a car-park, in a high-density city environment, can be turned into multi-million-dollar apartments, with a small private fleet of self-driving cars for their residents, there aren't too many wealthy people that won't want to have that property and service. There will be billions to be made.

All of these reasons, and more (like the insurance thing I talked about), I think, will contribute to it overtaking traditional methods of driving quite quickly when it is introduced.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#932
post #821

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just for fun, have a look at the comments about the iPod announcement: http://forums.macrumors.com/threads/apples-new-thing-ipod.50... There's always people with something to say.

Here's the first post on HN about Bitcoin: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=599852

That's gold.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#933
post #797
post #673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In all fairness, the initial iPods were nothing to write home about and, as I recall, iTunes didn't even run on anything except Macs--then a rather niche hardware platform. Of course, iPods improved relative to the competition but it was really the iTunes store and Apple's ability to fundamentally change how music was sold that really had the impact.

This sounds like the perspective of someone who didn't actually use early iPods and definitely didn't use Sony Discmans and Walkmans and other predecessors. Because folks who actually used all that stuff know that the iPod was a quantum leap, even in its first few generations. 5GB of storage, MUCH better battery life than any competing device of any kind, and FireWire 400 felt fast enough back then that it was like a…

Indeed. I had a walkman in the 80's. I still remember not being able to walk too quickly with my discman.

As soon as the ipod came out, I bought one for my girlfriend as a birthday present. She has never used any other system for listening to or acquiring music since. It obviously switched to the smart-phone, but still...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#934
post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It is a self driving car, it is so clearly the future, I wish it existed now, it is going to be awesome (in my opinion)." Even now, several years into the current news/development arc of self-driving cars, I still can't believe this is going to be the future. We're really never going to european (or japanese) style train networks ? We're really going to keep binging on roads ? We, as a nation of fat slobs [1] are re…

Cars changed the world. There's not really any going back from that. It works in places where the urban population is over 90% (like Japan) but not when urban population is substantially lower (like the US). How would the rural population get to the bus/train station? My grandma's house is half an hour by car to the nearest freeway , how long would she have to walk to get to public transport? Public transport only wo…

I think you can go even further. Public transit is tough to do well in cities that don't have a certain level of density. They're building subways in LA, but the city just isn't designed for it, patterns of movement are too dynamic, and too much of the city is composed of single-family homes so the last-mile problem is huge. It can only ever have a limited impact at an huge cost. They would be much better off with congestion pricing and dedicated bus lanes on the highways and arterial roads, transitioning these to self-driving when it becomes possible.

Three of the best public transit systems in the world are Berlin, Tokyo, and New York, which are both amongst the densest large cities in the world (Berlin is almost exclusively 5 story apartment buildings). The Berlin subway is largely self-supporting without public subsidy, Tokyo's system is composed of two competing but interoperable systems, the larger of which is privately run, and New York's system was privately run until 1940. The lifestyle, weather, and zoning of the cities where it works kickstarted the construction, and there exists enough demand that they would have great public transit systems even without government initiative.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#935

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but my point was more a scaling factor. Google can crank N amount of data with its small fleet, Tesla will be able to reach 10^5 N soon. If they're able to process it properly they may pass Google tests quickly.

I don't know if it's that easy. There are tons of images and text laying around, but research is focused on just a few datasets. Sometimes it's hard to make use of 100x more data.

Isn't this a machine learning problem? If so then more data means more learning.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#936
post #621

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

This is an area where it's easy to be too credulous. If you want "iPhone 1 of self-driving cars", Google has been tooling around in them for a while now. They do a great job under ideal conditions, on a sunny day. The future already happened! It simply isn't enough to post a video of a car driving in light traffic on a beautiful, California afternoon. That isn't what makes the problem hard. Mess up with your video-ba…

Bet you there is a clause that it's only usable during perfect conditions. I don't doubt there is a ton of information being sent back to Tesla for machine learning. They have the capability to send software updates to the cars. When you have hundreds of thousands of these cars driving around, they should be able to gather so much information and tweak the design to perfect the whole issue.

If I had one of these cars, I would not put 100% faith into this technology yet. But, after 5 years, who knows? I may finally be able to drink more than 1 beer at a bar with friends and have my car drive me safely home.

Which brings an interesting point, traffic violations. What will local police do now that self-driving cars drive safely?

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#937
post #99

More cameras. Better sonars (very short range). Better radar processing, but apparently the same old single radar at bumper height. Still no windshield-height radar. No radar scanning in elevation. No LIDAR. That's a better, but still weak sensor suite. It's probably enough for freeway driving under good conditions. It's far below Google's sensor suite. Or Volvo's. Now they just have to write software smart enough to…

if Tesla doesn't need LIDAR for level 4, I am skeptical of the "importance" of it made by the media

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#938
post #372
post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be a long time before Teslas can drive on dirt roads or roads covered in snow. But most daily driving happens on pavement either on the highway or in the city. Both of which it already handles quite well and will just get better.

The reason most people can handle driving on shitty dirt roads, in snow and other "uncommon" situations is because they've first logged thousands of hours of practice driving under more normal conditions. Remove that experience and routine and why would you expect them to have any idea what to do in those tricky situations where the AI fails on them?

I don't think you're wrong, but I predict that this will be a complete non-problem: by the time people's skills have atrophied significantly, self-driving car technology will have improved to the point where it won't matter anymore.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#939
post #238

My stance is very simple: when I can buy a car in Vancouver, BC without a driver's license I will be at the car salon door / preorder page / whatever, midnight movie release style to buy one and I won't ask about the price. Just make it happen, please.

I'm pretty sure it'll be a long time before you aren't any longer expected to take over your autonomous vehicle at any point and therefore won't need a driving license.

I'm only 41 years old. Patience is a virtue.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#940

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Honestly posts like these should be automod deleted. Are you not simultaneously advocating and decrying the exact same activity?

That's funny, but it's not quite accurate. There's a difference between a) saying that certain viewpoints don't belong here, and b) saying that comments which say that certain viewpoints don't belong here don't belong here. It's like there are three positions: 1. Certain viewpoints or comments should not be allowed. 2. Everything should be allowed except comments which say that certain things shouldn't be allowed (i.…

You're thinking too hard.
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