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All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

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Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#881

Post by forgetsusername »

flexie wrote: post #810
irq11 wrote: post #744

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you keep talking about the gigafactory as if that's relevant to self-driving cars. Your only point can be summarized in one sentence: they've released a senor suite into the field, and through some combination of Big Data and magical AI, they will win. This, as much as anything else, is a religious belief. Ultimately, this game is about the sensors. If your sensor suite is inadequate to detect every conc…

Production capacity is the most important factor for data collection. The Teslas sold in October 2018 don't need to have the same sensors as the ones sold in january 2018. As you can see, the car is designed modularly. No other mass marketed car on the planet has any sensors integrated yet. It's all about big numbers. Google has spent 5 years or more driving a few cars around California. It's never going to match bil…

>No other mass marketed car

Tesla doesn't make a mass-market car.

>Imagine the engineers working at Google's autonomous cars today. I bet many of them are preparing their resumes for Tesla.

Uh, probably not.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#883

Post by boznz »

woodpanel wrote: post #824
aerovistae wrote: post #789

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I too would like to see these videos.

It's not just self-driving cars. It's features like autonomous parking, lane-assitance, cruise control that automatically keeps the distance to the car in front of you and the like. Stuff like that has been repeatedly hailed by HN'ers as revolutionary when Tesla introduced it. Neglecting that other companies had those features for years. Whenever Tesla is the topic it's almost guaranteed every negative comment on HN…

I guess you've never downvoted anyone who disagrees with your opinion?

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#884

Post by mlvljr »

davedx wrote: post #432
svantana wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That I would call: driving autonomously with a human driver ready to take over if something unexpected were to happen. I believe that to get to superhuman performance (which is probably what will be needed to make it legal) you will need 360 degree ranging (i.e. LIDAR). Also, it is inevitable that these sensors will become so cheap that it's a no-brainer to include them.

You said: "Tesla's sensor suite is too weak to ever get to full autonomy" The video clearly shows a fully autonomous vehicle in a range of driving conditions. How about accepting that the sensor suite is adequate?

Based on a 4 minutes long heavily edited video? :)

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#885

Post by mkagenius »

JshWright wrote: post #833
AndrewDucker wrote: post #567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars for people with unusual needs are obviously going to continue being personally owned. But mosto of us will be delighted to have access to what is effectively an Uber only cheaper and more plentiful.

I'm not sure "having kids" is a particularly unusual need...

3,952,841 babies born annually in the United States.. I don't know how long you need toddler seat, maybe 3 years?

so, 12M families would like to own a car for 3 years.. (approx. multiple with number of children)

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#886

Post by forgetsusername »

tcoppi wrote: post #713
forgetsusername wrote: post #699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unfortunately this is really common on HN nowadays. I see things differently. Anyone who criticized Theranos was met with the same reaction, "Everyone on HN is so negative!" But the questions were valid. Look what happened. The same thing is occurring with Tesla. Yes, there is fantastic work being done, but many people here can't separate marketing from the real world. It's shocking, frankly.

Are you suggesting that Tesla is defrauding investors and regulators, as Theranos did?

>Are you suggesting that Tesla is defrauding investors and regulators, as Theranos did?

I'm suggesting that there's a lack of critical analysis applied to what are, essentially, Tesla press releases. Like when it was implied that people were sexist for questioning the genius of Elizabeth Holmes, because she was changing the world and all that, according to the press releases.

Again, I have no problem with being a Tesla fan. I probably come off as a "hater" here because I like to play Devil's Advocate and it's a pretty one-sided discussion on HackerNews (expectedly). I think what they're doing is fantastic. But give some credit to other companies who are also doing good things for this space, people's safety and the planet.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#887

Post by doikor »

dagw wrote: post #372
doikor wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will be a long time before Teslas can drive on dirt roads or roads covered in snow. But most daily driving happens on pavement either on the highway or in the city. Both of which it already handles quite well and will just get better.

The reason most people can handle driving on shitty dirt roads, in snow and other "uncommon" situations is because they've first logged thousands of hours of practice driving under more normal conditions. Remove that experience and routine and why would you expect them to have any idea what to do in those tricky situations where the AI fails on them?

I did my driving education during the summer and got my license. Got my first car during the middle of winter and just learned to drive in snow (we did have a 2 hour course on a slippery track as part of the driving education). It isn't really hard. Just have proper winter tires and don't go too fast.

Also driving the shitty back roads in Finland was a lot of fun in my old Honda Civic which didn't have power steering or ABS (let alone any kind of traction control and stabilization you have in newer cars). Driving a modern car with all the modern aids is very easy on dirt. On snow some of them can hinder you though (some automatic gearboxes just don't know what to do when none of the wheels have any traction) but for the most part it is very easy too if you have winter tires.

Driving is very easy. Too easy I think which causes people to drive way too fast for the situation quite often.

Main issue for driving on dirt roads/snow for automated cars I see is just seeing the road itself correctly not with controlling the car.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#888

Post by dkonofalski »

nartsbtaa wrote: post #868
aerovistae wrote: post #650

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The strategy Musk has clearly been using for a long time now with this is to put as much hardware and software into the field as possible, often even without the customers knowing it's there, and gathering vast amounts of data from it, and gradually forcing it into widespread availability and acceptance, all while letting the system learn and improve itself, which is a necessary step. He's doing what he does best: fo…

> Nope, it's not autonomous, it's Autopilot! Yeah, well... it's not really autonomous. It's a slightly better cruise control + assisted lane change. In fact the "Autopilot" marketing term makes it sound much more like fully autonomous driving than it actually is.

I think he/she is referring to 2.0 which is fully autonomous.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#889

Post by baq »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #817
mtgx wrote: post #745

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Take Tesla 3 pre-orders, for instance. Tesla spins 400,000 pre-orders for a car that you might not receive in the next three years as the most amazing innovation in automobile manufacturing. Because it kind of is when we're talking about an electric car. Tesla's competitors can't come up with those numbers for EVs combined (even with hybrids). GM is expected to make 30,000 Bolts for next year, for instance (and it…

Level 5 is unachievable and unnecessary. There will always be some small number of locales that confound the system. But if you can't use autonomy a few times per year, who cares? When we get to level 4 the game is over, it's just an adoption curve at that point.

20W meat computers with stereo mics and low-res HDR cameras are level 5 autonomous, don't underestimate digital ones.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#890

Post by vkou »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #835
vkou wrote: post #708

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First: Why do you always need to assume web dev is stupid. Or less impactful. Imagine a bank website showing 10,000 less in your account. The impact of that, terrifying as it may be, is still significantly less then the impact of a self-driving-but-buggy vehicle into the side of a semi.

There was no net impact in that accident. It replaced three deaths which would have occurred without autopilot, so it was part of a net gain in lives. Perhaps that particular human was special and worth saving over the other two who were saved instead, but I am not aware of any reason to believe that.

> There was no net impact in that accident.

Only after a particularly tortured interpretation of highway safety statistics.

If you exclude pedestrian deaths (Few jaywalkers on the interstate), motorcycle deaths, deaths in conditions where autopilot cannot be used, and deaths due to collisions of lighter, less safe, older, or poorly-maintained automobiles, then regular highway death statistics start looking better then autopilot-enabled ones. [1] [2]

Again, there's a great gap between the hype of Tesla, and the reality.

[1] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601849/teslas-dubious-cla...

[2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2016/07/05/adding-...

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