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All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

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Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#831
post #673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just for fun, have a look at the comments about the iPod announcement: http://forums.macrumors.com/threads/apples-new-thing-ipod.50... There's always people with something to say.

In all fairness, the initial iPods were nothing to write home about and, as I recall, iTunes didn't even run on anything except Macs--then a rather niche hardware platform. Of course, iPods improved relative to the competition but it was really the iTunes store and Apple's ability to fundamentally change how music was sold that really had the impact.

The first iPod provided unprecedented amounts of storage in a form factor that actually fit in your pocket. They accomplished this by buying out the world's initial supply of tiny hard drives for over a year and change. This kept would-be competitors at bay, making every other 5GB MP3 player look like a giant brick by comparison.

Most of the people who were shitting on the iPod never held one in their hands.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#832

Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…

I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…

> Having the equipment ready and in action first is somehow a disadvantage by this argument, and now you're better off being later to market.

So I think it might be from an investment standpoint; just think of Tivo they made the DVR, but once others saw what they were doing there are plenty of other DVR choices and Tivo didn't win the category.

Tesla might be forging ahead and blazing the trail for others, who will actually capitalize on it.

I think that the Tesla brand is sexy enough that they'll maintain their niche (as Tivo has to some extent), I'm not sure if that will translate into investment returns.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#833

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I look forward to having to insert and remove three car seats for every short trip... EDIT: By 'car seat' I mean a seat for an infant/toddler/child.

Cars for people with unusual needs are obviously going to continue being personally owned. But mosto of us will be delighted to have access to what is effectively an Uber only cheaper and more plentiful.

I'm not sure "having kids" is a particularly unusual need...

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#834
post #722
post #700

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't web development. You don't risk lives with your beta release First: Why do you always need to assume web dev is stupid. Or less impactful. Imagine a bank website showing 10,000 less in your account. I myself paid several customers a penalty/reimbursement, when because of our website, they suffered. And I am sure there are websites/apps which are more critical. Second: You are assuming, they have done a hal…

Well, for starters, the only thing Tesla has "released" here is a video. So there's that. I don't know if they hurried the release of the video. The real product launch is the sensor suite...and those haven't shipped in any quantity, yet. As for AI, there's no magical "algo" that solves the problem of an all-black video frame. Having more black video frames than anyone else doesn't exactly solve that problem. See als…

According to the blog they are shipping in quantity now.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#835
post #708
post #700

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't web development. You don't risk lives with your beta release First: Why do you always need to assume web dev is stupid. Or less impactful. Imagine a bank website showing 10,000 less in your account. I myself paid several customers a penalty/reimbursement, when because of our website, they suffered. And I am sure there are websites/apps which are more critical. Second: You are assuming, they have done a hal…

> First: Why do you always need to assume web dev is stupid. Or less impactful. Imagine a bank website showing 10,000 less in your account. The impact of that, terrifying as it may be, is still significantly less then the impact of a self-driving-but-buggy vehicle into the side of a semi.

There was no net impact in that accident. It replaced three deaths which would have occurred without autopilot, so it was part of a net gain in lives.

Perhaps that particular human was special and worth saving over the other two who were saved instead, but I am not aware of any reason to believe that.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#836
post #91

I think what people are missing here is an understanding of how these systems are tested and deployed at scale. While I have no involvement with Tesla I do have first-hand knowledge of similar programs at tier 1 automotive suppliers. The suppliers provide (or are looking to provide) an electronics suite to car manufacturers. The car manufacturers want the system to be safe lest they be sued out of existence. One part…

Question: Does the fact that the collection of the required volume of kms driven is performed over a shorter period of time based on a higher number of test subjects collecting the data impact the diversity and quality of the data negatively? Said another way: Is there a downside to parallelizing the collection process across a broader horizontal population of collection vehicles over a shorter period versus the trad…

Here's an interesting problem I hadn't thought about before. Teslas are expensive and rich people drive in different places than poor people, so teslas will have more data about places rich people go. That's another interesting data imbalance.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#837

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are problems which are actually improved as more cars move to autonomous driving. A sensible government would mandate that manufacturers must upload anonymised data about each car in real time, which would effectively allow for cross-talk between cars. This could enable automatic remedies to the above situations (car X tells car Y "I've got more room behind me, let me reverse), but also prevent them in the firs…

Why make it centralized? I generally am suspicious of "anonymized" datasets (in the abstract) as any usable data is probably enough to nonymize someone given a couple other pieces of data. Forgive me if you didn't mean a centralized system but I took upload and anonymize to suggest that. In the case of cars some radio comms (uhf, wifi, or even bluetooth?) is probably sufficient since there is no reason for a car in N…

Don't worry. It's not you, it's an anonymous person who leaves your house every morning and comes back after working in the same place you do. Nobody could ever associate that with you.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#838

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…

> Having the equipment ready and in action first is somehow a disadvantage by this argument, and now you're better off being later to market. So I think it might be from an investment standpoint; just think of Tivo they made the DVR, but once others saw what they were doing there are plenty of other DVR choices and Tivo didn't win the category. Tesla might be forging ahead and blazing the trail for others, who will a…

Tivo lost because cable/sat went digital and it made a lot more sense to integrate the DVR into the digital receiver than it did to have a separate box that required using a CableCARD. I'm pretty sure most people don't even know what a CableCARD is.

When Tivo was a simple as plugging in the analog coax signal from your cable or antenna, it made a lot of sense. But once the signal from the cable company needed digital decoding, it hurt them, despite Tivo having a better UI.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#839
post #810
post #744

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you keep talking about the gigafactory as if that's relevant to self-driving cars. Your only point can be summarized in one sentence: they've released a senor suite into the field, and through some combination of Big Data and magical AI, they will win. This, as much as anything else, is a religious belief. Ultimately, this game is about the sensors. If your sensor suite is inadequate to detect every conc…

Production capacity is the most important factor for data collection. The Teslas sold in October 2018 don't need to have the same sensors as the ones sold in january 2018. As you can see, the car is designed modularly. No other mass marketed car on the planet has any sensors integrated yet. It's all about big numbers. Google has spent 5 years or more driving a few cars around California. It's never going to match bil…

Once again: if the sensors don't work for the problem domain, the quantity of data gathered is irrelevant.

If you mounted a forward-facing video camera on every car in in the world and gathered the data for decades, you'd still be nowhere: you're missing the side and rear views. This is a thought exercise, but it demonstrates the point. If your robot car has a blind spot, all the data in the world won't fix it.

Nobody knows how good these cameras are, but every camera-based system so far has had the same critical limitations: they don't work well at night or in poor visibility.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#840

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…

> Having the equipment ready and in action first is somehow a disadvantage by this argument, and now you're better off being later to market. So I think it might be from an investment standpoint; just think of Tivo they made the DVR, but once others saw what they were doing there are plenty of other DVR choices and Tivo didn't win the category. Tesla might be forging ahead and blazing the trail for others, who will a…

It's not a horrible comparison, but the barriers to entry between an electric car (+entire charging network) are much higher than a DVR. First mover advantage digs a bigger moat.
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