I'm curious to see when cities will start changing their zoning for this new reality. The most exciting to me is elimination of parking minimums - these add a lot to the cost of building anything and take up very valuable/well located space.
All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
741–750 of 1001 posts
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#742Earlier quoted context omitted.
"It is a self driving car, it is so clearly the future, I wish it existed now, it is going to be awesome (in my opinion)." Even now, several years into the current news/development arc of self-driving cars, I still can't believe this is going to be the future. We're really never going to european (or japanese) style train networks ? We're really going to keep binging on roads ? We, as a nation of fat slobs [1] are re…
I think the future is self-driving public transit. I imagine minivans that perform dynamic route optimization. Instead of a bus that stops every block on a pre-determined route, use an app to input your pickup location and destination and the self-driving van picks you and a few people up from a small radius, and drops people off in a small radius. This will be faster and cheaper than both public transit and even dri…
Unfortunately, public transit is way less profitable than selling cars to people, so self driving public transit doesn't seem like the top priority, despite having the best net benefit for society
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#743Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…
> This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..."
Differently from mobile phones, cars actually have the capacity to go horribly, horribly wrong. This is not something to have a "let's fix it in public beta" Approach on.
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#744Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is an area where it's easy to be too credulous. If you want "iPhone 1 of self-driving cars", Google has been tooling around in them for a while now. They do a great job under ideal conditions, on a sunny day. The future already happened! It simply isn't enough to post a video of a car driving in light traffic on a beautiful, California afternoon. That isn't what makes the problem hard. Mess up with your video-ba…
Google's cars are not iPhone 1. They still just have a few dozen or a few hundred, who knows, and they have only been driving 2 million miles until now. They are not even for sale and will not be any time soon. Oor ever, if they don't market their own electric cars very soon or hook up with a car manufacturer. Tesla can collect data from 5 billion miles of driving already one year after the Giga Factory is full opera…
Not sure why you keep talking about the gigafactory as if that's relevant to self-driving cars. Your only point can be summarized in one sentence: they've released a senor suite into the field, and through some combination of Big Data and magical AI, they will win. This, as much as anything else, is a religious belief.
Ultimately, this game is about the sensors. If your sensor suite is inadequate to detect every conceivable bad situation a car can be in, then it doesn't matter how much data you accumulate. One million miles of good LIDAR data is worth more than a billion miles of video, if the video can't see white objects during the daytime, or figure out on what side of the parking lot the car should be driving (ahem).
I have no idea how good or bad their sensors are, but instinct tells me they're not up to the task of all-condition driving, and this video provides no useful information either way.
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#745Earlier quoted context omitted.
I laughed out loud when I googled "tsla" after watching the video and the top headline in the news section of the google results was "Analyst doubts the new move by Tesla Motors." Clicking on the article for humor's value, I continued to read: > However, Edmunds.com, Inc. analyst Jessica Caldwell questions the value of purchasing a self-driving car before regulations catch up. Caldwell said that, meanwhile, competito…
> It's just hilarious the contortions of logic people will go to in order to put Musk down. It's probably because there is a substantial gap between what Musk spins, and reality. Take Tesla 3 pre-orders, for instance. Tesla spins 400,000 pre-orders for a car that you might not receive in the next three years as the most amazing innovation in automobile manufacturing. Historically, there have been a few other companie…
> Take Tesla 3 pre-orders, for instance. Tesla spins 400,000 pre-orders for a car that you might not receive in the next three years as the most amazing innovation in automobile manufacturing.
Because it kind of is when we're talking about an electric car. Tesla's competitors can't come up with those numbers for EVs combined (even with hybrids). GM is expected to make 30,000 Bolts for next year, for instance (and it may or may not sell all of them).
That said, I'm skeptical the Autopilot 2.0 hardware is a "Level 5 autonomous system". I think a good rule of thumb would be to subtract about "one level" from what Musk promises, as he always tends to be a little overoptimistic, even if what he creates still ends up being better than the competition.
Take the first Autopilot, which Musk said is "Level 2". It's probably more like a real Level 1. It only works under very specific situations, and even when those specific situations are met (a highway) it can still fail, because Tesla may have accounted for US highways but not European ones, or other road quirks. See the recent Autobahn accident because the Autopilot couldn't properly identify "yellow lines" as opposed to white ones.
So yeah, I expect this to be more like Level 4 ... three years from now (as ready for mainstream use, not just a demo). I don't think we'll see true Level 5 until the 2020s. I think there are still many unexpected things Musk and his engineers aren't foreseeing right now.
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#746Earlier quoted context omitted.
"It is a self driving car, it is so clearly the future, I wish it existed now, it is going to be awesome (in my opinion)." Even now, several years into the current news/development arc of self-driving cars, I still can't believe this is going to be the future. We're really never going to european (or japanese) style train networks ? We're really going to keep binging on roads ? We, as a nation of fat slobs [1] are re…
I think the future is self-driving public transit. I imagine minivans that perform dynamic route optimization. Instead of a bus that stops every block on a pre-determined route, use an app to input your pickup location and destination and the self-driving van picks you and a few people up from a small radius, and drops people off in a small radius. This will be faster and cheaper than both public transit and even dri…
That would be great. One problem though: Self-driving tech may offer a very cheap taxi, so many users would prefer not to use shared vans.
Heck, to a certain extent we're already in that scenario, with some sharing services are cheaper than cars(@ridewithvia, @ridechariot, and maybe uber pool and lyft line) - and yet people prefer cars.
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#747Interesting for two reasons: 1. It is a self driving car, it is so clearly the future, I wish it existed now, it is going to be awesome (in my opinion). 2. Despite knowing about and following news about driverless cars for a while, there was something surprisingly (to me) compelling about watching the video. It's like you get a little taste of the full A to B that it can give you (door to door). Who wants to speculat…
> Who wants to speculate how long it will be until self-driving cars are common place in the UK? And it should be able to automatically detect that it's in the UK and drive on the left side of the road... I'm curious - can you even get a Tesla in the UK (or Japan or Australia, etc), and do they make a right-side driver model?
There are a lot of Model Ss to be found in my area of London. All Right-hand drive.
There is even a showroom selling them + the X in the local shopping centre (mall) and 3 (I think) super-chargers in the car park.
After Model S, most common is the Leaf. (also right-hand drive)
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#748Earlier quoted context omitted.
Car companies have been developing this technology for longer than Tesla has even existed. Here's Mercedes in 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_RFzC_G5BA
True. But they add the hardware only if you pay for it up front. Tesla has the hardware in every car it sells, and will be mining super useful data with all these sensors, and tweaking it's software (machine learning based on real use cases for a year) before it puts it out to the public! The scale of data mining that can be done with Tesla's approach is near impossible with other cars (if they continue to sell the c…
How hard do you think adding sensors to vehicles is to accomplish if the big players decide it's valuable? This is commodity hardware. And if/when they do, they will be gathering far more data that Tesla, by virtue of the massive number of vehicles on the road.
Again, Tesla may very well do it better than anyone else, but it's a bit early to talk like they've won anything here.
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#749So what do these cars do when the hit a puddle of mud and it covers all the cameras. Will there be a new form of vandalism where someone puts scotch tape over/destroys the vehicles cameras and now your fancy autonomous vehicle is rendered incapacitated. Maybe this seems unlikely or ridiculous, but the dependence on cameras at points on the car that seem likely to get dirty and or damaged seems to be a risk to me.
its not ridiculous, it points out the flaws that must be addressed. there were cases where people posted losing the ability of their car's system not working because of a leaf. throw in the fact that nice day autonomous driving isn't proof of much. Pretty much any manufacturer have systems that do this the difference is they don't try to infer something with it and Tesla clearly is, they are still trying to deflect negative attention.
When Tesla shows me the same car driving in pouring rain, day or night, in snow, or such, then I will say "damn, they are truly making it work". Until then its a cheap magic trick and dishonest.
What is so odd is bragging about driving when people are least likely to need it, nice wonderful days. Safety systems have been aimed at providing control and reaction in the worst environments.
Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
#750Isn't this hackernews?? So many "but what if this and that and this..." & "and yeah let's see if it can handle X & Y" This is the iPhone 1 of self-driving cars! That's akin to saying Apple should have waited to release their phone until iPhone 7 "because of this & that & this..." Don't we have to start somewhere ?? Aren't there supposed to be a big user base here who understands that it's an evolutionary process - we…
yes and no... if cellphone is imperfect, at most it can cause inconvenience (let's ignore Note 7 topic for now), if car's driving is imperfect, it can easily kill not so low amount of people
we are geeks, many happy to be early adopters (aka testers), but try to explain this to average middle class joe who sees this and thinks it's already there in point of perfection, no mistake possible.
I just hope for Tesla that they delivered an outstanding technology that will just work, too much at stake with it. For now, respect to engineering team behind this!