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All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

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Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#431

Post by Diederich »

teebot wrote: post #366
flexie wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Data collection that would take years can happen in weeks" I think that we are talking days, not weeks, or probably that Teslas can have multiple teams testing various hardware and algorithms at the same time: Tesla plans on producing 500k cars per year from 2018. If all of them have this equipment, and they drive a conservative 10k miles per year in average, Tesla will gather data from 5 billion miles driven after…

I don't know if any amount of data collection and model refinement will allow self driving in ALL situations. We always see self driving demos in California on very large roads, I'd like to see one in a small crowded street of Napoli or on a crossroad in Ho-Chi Minh.

> very large roads

I've seen quite a few Google self driving cars on Castro in Mountain View. http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4082/4939372588_47979bceec_z....

That picture doesn't do it justice during the most busy hours of the evening, where there's tons of people crossing and bicycles flying about in every direction.

Given that, I've never seen a crowded street in Napoli or a crossroad in Ho-Chi Minh, but I can imagine they are a completely different level of complex all together.

As noted elsewhere, the announcement was that the necessary hardware will now ship standard. Musk has said elsewhere that the software is many times harder than the hardware.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#432

Post by davedx »

svantana wrote: post #382
davedx wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you make of this, then? https://www.tesla.com/nl_NL/videos/full-self-driving-hardwar...

That I would call: driving autonomously with a human driver ready to take over if something unexpected were to happen. I believe that to get to superhuman performance (which is probably what will be needed to make it legal) you will need 360 degree ranging (i.e. LIDAR). Also, it is inevitable that these sensors will become so cheap that it's a no-brainer to include them.

You said: "Tesla's sensor suite is too weak to ever get to full autonomy"

The video clearly shows a fully autonomous vehicle in a range of driving conditions. How about accepting that the sensor suite is adequate?

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#433

Post by arjun1296 »

mountaineer22 wrote: post #412
orwell101 wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't we film everyone at home to determine if they engage in risky behavior like climbing roofs or using chain saws? We could determine their liability insurance premium more accurately! Why don't we film everyone in bed to determine if they use condoms? We could determine their health insurance premiums more accurately!

We just use their credit score instead!

Credit score is used for lending. Basically, helps to understand the repaying capacity of the person.

However, presence of alcohol in sweat or by another means if detected and taken by systems to feed data to insurance companies it will make judicious decision in charging the person a higher premium.

Because, drunken driving risk lives of others on the road and yourself. If a person is not in a position to live on a agreeable consensus of social security model without putting others life at risk, jungle suits him.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#434

Post by hash-set »

IndianAstronaut wrote: post #181
hash-set wrote: post #176

I get that tech companies want self-driving cars really bad because they smell billions of dollars in "disruption" but no matter how good AI gets, I have a suspicion it won't actually do better than a decent human driver can do. It's not about processing speed, it's about experience and reflexes, which granted, not everyone has. Let's see a self-driving car win a Formula 1 race--and even that controlled racetrack env…

>In terms of safety, people will still lose their lives, they will just die from different kinds of car accidents than the kinds we have now If self driving cars kill 20 thousand people a year, it would still be a major improvement. 30 thousand people die every year from human drivers.

I wonder if we could get those numbers down simply by having better driver training programs?

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#435

Post by phkahler »

HiroshiSan wrote: post #389
redwood wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree for roads with no other cars around, I think there are shortcuts that can be taken on roads where there are indeed other cars. If you think about what humans do an unknown conditions or abnormal conditions, they basically follow the car in front of them. Self-driving cars could follow the same paradigm

What happens when the car in front goes off a cliff on a twisty mountain road?

>> What happens when the car in front goes off a cliff on a twisty mountain road?

Humans have been known to "follow" the car in front of them when its not appropriate. Being parked on the side of the freeway (especially on a curve) is one of the worst places to be. I recall hearing that people hit those parked cars quite often.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#436

Post by ryanmarsh »

_abak_ wrote: post #313
luma wrote: post #91

I think what people are missing here is an understanding of how these systems are tested and deployed at scale. While I have no involvement with Tesla I do have first-hand knowledge of similar programs at tier 1 automotive suppliers. The suppliers provide (or are looking to provide) an electronics suite to car manufacturers. The car manufacturers want the system to be safe lest they be sued out of existence. One part…

All miles are not created equals though. Sure Tesla will gather a lot of data quickly but most of this data will be from people who use their car for their daily commute, everyday at roughly the same hour. This doesn't have the same value as data from different areas/road conditions/time of day

Some cars get used on the weekend too.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#437

Post by hash-set »

Tepix wrote: post #339
pauljurczak wrote: post #335

Hardware performance is not a problem for Level 5 autonomy - the software is. If Tesla insists on deploying full self-driving capability in the next couple of years, they will be litigated out of existence. We are a few decades away from autopilot to "understand" what it is doing. Right now it is just parroting the most common scenarios. This may be as good or slightly better than the average driver, but it still wil…

I don't think so. It's not hard to make an algorithm that drives slower/extra careful when facing unusual circumstances. It's the same thing human drivers do btw.

No it isn't! I often react to bad situations not by slowing down but by speeding up, changing lanes, going on to medians--or even grass one time, you name it. Driving defensively is so much more than not tailgating the car in front of you.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#438

Post by hash-set »

D-Coder wrote: post #153
Element_ wrote: post #74

Will this new neural net and hardware be capable of advanced object detection? For instance if a plastic bag or piece of cardboard rolls across the highway a human driver knows it's safe to run over without stopping. Would a system like this just see an obstacle via radar and emergency brake? Google has been working on this problem for longer and they have access to the largest image/video datasets in the world to tr…

"if a plastic bag or piece of cardboard rolls across the highway a human driver knows it's safe to run over without stopping." Well, usually. But frequently they don't see it at all, or freeze and hit it whatever it is, or swerve three lanes over, or jam on the brakes in front of you. It only has to be better than humans, not perfect.

False. It has to be perfect or Tesla gets sued. A plastic bag flies in front of your car, the car brakes hard and another one behind you hits yours and gives you whiplash. Lawsuit time.

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#439

Post by funkdobiest »

teebot wrote: post #366
flexie wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Data collection that would take years can happen in weeks" I think that we are talking days, not weeks, or probably that Teslas can have multiple teams testing various hardware and algorithms at the same time: Tesla plans on producing 500k cars per year from 2018. If all of them have this equipment, and they drive a conservative 10k miles per year in average, Tesla will gather data from 5 billion miles driven after…

I don't know if any amount of data collection and model refinement will allow self driving in ALL situations. We always see self driving demos in California on very large roads, I'd like to see one in a small crowded street of Napoli or on a crossroad in Ho-Chi Minh.

Yes, small cobblestone streets in Philly? I wonder how it handles other bad/rude drivers? In the video I saw it merging on to the freeway, but sometime you have to go over the speed limit to get in front of the car that is in the merge lane, will it be courteous to allow others to merge properly?

Re: All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware

#440

Post by irq11 »

MarkMc wrote: post #426
emp_zealoth wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel sad that actual sensible responses on HN are now downvoted mercilessly because they are not aboard the hype train/zeitgeist What irq11 has said is valid and important. You cannot just handwave actual engineering problems with some buzzwords

Perhaps irq11 was downvoted because of his/her belittling tone rather than the substance of his/her argument. It's valid and important to say, "I have experience in this field and sensor quality will always be more important than a suite of regression tests, no matter how large". It's not valid and important to say, "You're just saying that because you like Elon Musk, and read an article about 'big data' once"

Well, yes. That's why I didn't say that. I asked if the parent had any evidence for the otherwise bald assertion of a dubious fact (other than being a fanperson).

It would be a perfectly reasonable response to my comment to say "why yes, I do, and here's my evidence (along with a great reason that I didn't provide it in my original comment!)"

It stands to reason that if the parent had a better argument than "test-driven development on steroids", then they'd have provided it. But asserting that someone's well-informed comment about sensor quality "underestimates" the power of big-data-AI-TDD-learning-rapid-innovation-foo, well, that sounds like magical thinking.

In any case, this is a meta-discussion about voting, which is definitely not okay, so I'll leave it at that.

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