Live data from Hacker News

The 2016 Election

blog.samaltman.com

601–610 of 646 posts

Re: The 2016 Election

#601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint: many of the founding fathers were crazy sexist racists, yet we still hold their other opinions in quite high regard.

That was 240 years ago. We recognize the value they added and understand them in their historical context.

That's a popular misconception, like "everyone thought the world was flat before Columbus reached America."

The immorality of slavery was recognized hundreds of years before the founding of the US. It was abolished in France in the 1300s, in Sweden in 1335, etc. It was never really legal in England and that fact was recognized in 1706, about 40 years before Thomas Jefferson was born. The founders' condoning slavery was a deeply immoral political expedient that was recognized by many as immoral even contemporaneously.

But that's besides the point. The fact that the founders were individually contemptible people doesn't mean their ideas were wrong. You can agree with many of the things Thomas Jefferson said without personally condoning slavery and rape.

Re: The 2016 Election

#602
post #56
post #5

> of course, if Peter said some of the things Trump says himself, he would no longer be part of Y Combinator). This is precisely where your whole argument fell apart. If money is speech (and SCOTUS tells us it is) and Thiel donates over $1 million to Trump's campaign, then he effectively is saying what Trump is saying. Money talks. In our society, it's almost always even louder than the calm reasoning of a rationalis…

Agreed. This is crazy: 1. A rich and powerful person parroting Trump's evil statements --> ban from YC. 2. A rich and powerful person helping put Trump in a position to turn his evil statements into reality for an entire country --> No ban from YC.

It's not crazy. Banning people because they have political opinions you disagree with is insane and will destroy democracy and polarize society.

Re: The 2016 Election

#603
post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It happened twice, both in the first century of US independence; whole there have been subsequent realignments, the identity of the two nationally-competitive parties have been stable for more than a century and a half. It's not implausible that the basic factors which promoted the relative fluidity of the party system in the early Republic are gone. (Direct election of senators and the near universal norm of assigni…

It would be possible to consider the post-Nixon Southern Strategy flop of anti-civil-rights Democrats to form the new-look Republican party a third occurrence. That fundamentally changed the direction and outlook of both parties.

There's actually several major realignments since the Republicans displaced the Whigs, but they differ from the changes from the First to Second and Second to Third Party System in that the identity of the two major parties did not change in those realignments; IIRC, the realignment you refer to is sometimes considered the third of those post-Civil War realignments (the one involving the New Deal Coalition is the second, and the first was in the Progressive Era.)

Re: The 2016 Election

#604
I am voting for Donald Trump.

I have weighed the issues in reference to the interests of myself, my family, my community, and my country. As an independent, I kept seeing the same pattern: people on the right are open to discussing issues, people on the left want to alienate me and act hostile and throw around pejoratives without providing substantive evidence. That's honestly enough for me.

But here's the real kicker - it is going to take an outsider to deal with corruption. This was the tipping point for me: https://i.sli.mg/jozAB1.jpg

Re: The 2016 Election

#605

I am voting for Donald Trump. I have weighed the issues in reference to the interests of myself, my family, my community, and my country. As an independent, I kept seeing the same pattern: people on the right are open to discussing issues, people on the left want to alienate me and act hostile and throw around pejoratives without providing substantive evidence. That's honestly enough for me. But here's the real kicke…

That's what tipped it for me too. We have to fix corruption first because so much else depends on it. I just don't know when the next time we'll see an outsider get this far, and while there's plenty I disagree w/ him on, I'm willing to risk it can be corrected later.

Re: The 2016 Election

#606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> such as capturing 3 Supreme Court justice appointments for Republican judges. And Peter Thiel might be one of them.

Is Peter Thiel a lawyer? I seem to be missing a large part of this line of thinking.

Yep, J.D. from Stanford Law School in 1992.

Re: The 2016 Election

#607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Improvements to the fairness of elections won't come from those who benefit from the status quo, it'll come from those at the grassroots level. Boosting the electoral performance of third party candidates builds confidence that grassroots movements can make a significant political impact. As for whether Trump or Clinton would actively block fair elections, that wouldn't surprise me, but I wouldn't put it past either…

> rump's already made it clear he wants to make it easier to manipulate the press, and Clinton was clearly willing to engage in underhand tactics to get the Democratic nomination I would dare say that these two things aren't equivalent. Clinton "rigging" the primaries didn't involve preventing people from speaking out, or excluding them from voting. It was mostly about the system itself being "pre-rigged" by design,…

> "Clinton "rigging" the primaries didn't involve preventing people from speaking out"

Some would argue that there's evidence that she is engaged in that activity:

https://m.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/4wa5ue/clinton_bo...

Whether you want to believe this or not is up to you, but I'd suggest doing a bit of research before dismissing it.

Re: The 2016 Election

#608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Indeed, it has steadily moving left since Obama, I'm not sure you could possibly be serious. - Obama continued and escalated GWB's wars and ramped up the war on whistleblowers and the use of drone assassination and terror campaigns. - Obamacare was a big corporate giveaway, ushering in the new Halliburtons of Healthcare. The Mylan epi-pen fiasco is one example among many of how the program catered to corporate inte…

What is your baseline?

Well, Republicans have been moving to the left for a while too...

GWB ran on the idea of "compassionate conservatism" which was another way of saying that the Federal government should spend more money on social welfare programs. For GWB, it meant ensuring the support of a wide variety of faith-based organizations who saw it as an opportunity to get some free money, and when it worked to help get GWB two terms, the GOP realized it was a winning strategy. It helped counteract some of the appropriations championed by Democrats that resulted in lots of loyal voters.

Similarly, post-911 the neoconservative faction of the GOP took a strong hold on power. The older generation of Republicans, many of whom had served in combat, were far more weary of costly foreign wars, but the young generation, most of whom had not served, were eager to seize upon the opportunities left around the globe after the fall of the Soviet Union.

The invasion of Iraq was neoconservative: It was sold on the basis of its alleged humanitarian objective (freeing women who were oppressed under Saddam) but also on the basis of the grand existential threat of terrorism. Americans had to be sold on the idea that the war made sense, and GWB and his neoconservative team created a villain out of Saddam, Hans Blix the UN weapons inspector, the European countries that urged restraint, etc.

Of course, this was all so that the US could invade a country that had once been part of a proxy war with the USSR and was now essentially available for the taking. We've seen US dependence on Israel decrease post Iraq invasion, as we now have our own territory for bases and our own projection of force in the region. The current situation with Syria is Russia's latent attempt to retaliate and not lose its last foothold in the middle east. The Iran deal was (seemingly unsuccessfully) intended to be a carrot preventing Iran from aligning with Russia, etc.

Neoconservatism has been described as "liberals with guns" because there is an element of a moralistic crusade behind the war, and the war often does not involve direct threats to national security. Post Saddam, the US doled out the Iraqi oil industry contracts to American and coalition firms, effectively redistributing Iraq's trillions in oil wealth substantially, cutting out French and German companies that had won these lucrative contracts before.

In spite of campaigning against Bush's wars, Obama has generally kept the same ideological approach. For all the ranting about Obamacare, the GOP largely supported it, mainly because there are enough firms in GOP districts to result in the required number of votes.

At this point, the main reason the GOP would want to change Obamacare is to make it more lucrative for specific firms, not because of any sort of philosophical disagreement with the program.

So both parties are converging on what I'd call corporatist neoconservative centrism. It generally preserves the status quo, the broad policy strokes are bold plays to enrich massive industries through public/private partnerships (middle eastern oil, US healthcare, US housing, US financial services, etc). Foreign policy is heavily propaganda-based and heavily moralistic in its tone, foreign leaders are subject to ad hominem attacks, and existential evils are spoken about with the wide-eyed seriousness of children discussing fairytales.

When you think about, say, Jeb Bush's platform and HRC's, there is little difference when you filter for issues that would ever actually come to a vote. Notable in the leaked emails was the HRC team scrambling early on in response to a speech by Jeb Bush which they described as "HRC agrees with all of this". They were fearful that his messaging approach was better than what they'd come up with.

The biggest beneficiaries of the idea that HRC is "extremely liberal" or that Jeb is "extremely conservative" are the candidates themselves. They create the illusion of difference were little exists. Many of the other leaked HRC emails show that she holds or recently held many socially conservative views to go along with her free-trade pro-wall-street economic views. These things aren't a surprise, but they do provide actual evidence of the profound similarity between the two parties.

Re: The 2016 Election

#609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand your argument and I might even agree with it. But, I would like to point out that there is a difference if we consider objective facts. Fact: Trump threatened to jail his political opponent if elected. That's how he has shown a disrespect for our system of government. Now, I realize that Trump supporters really don't get why it's bad to put your rival in jail. But, that objective fact does actually matte…

> Trump threatened to jail his political opponent if elected. actually he said he would appoint a special prosecutor to the case which honestly should have been done a long time ago and based on the context of it is perfectly reasonable.

The last time the Republicans put a special prosecutor on a Clinton that President was trying to stop Osama bin Laden from attacking the United States.

Again, there's reality and there's a belief that Hilary murdered someone.

Re: The 2016 Election

#610
post #579
post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with most of that. And I agree that her campaign is mostly about fear tactics. I suppose the difference between us then is just that I think, despite the lameness of fear-as-platform, I think that fear is pretty justified by the thought of Trump being president. When you honestly consider that prospect, does it not terrify you? I don't mean that question rhetorically.

I am terrified by the supreme court justices that would be appointed during 4-8 years of Democratic rule. Unless Democrats become associated with strict constructionism, I will continue to fear them and oppose their appointment to lifelong positions.

Out of curiosity, is it a 2nd amendment thing for you, or do you have other specific fears? Or just more general?
Post reply on HN