Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
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Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#2This is darn cool
Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#3Why should I think that being anonymous should give some advantage ? I think it would be more of a disadvantage due to should I trust you? Also, how do I know these people are truly anonymous ?
Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#4Spent some time experimenting with Numerai. Really fun competition, clean (encrypted) dataset, and Bitcoin payouts. I wrote about my experience and open-sourced all of the models here[0] if you're looking to get started.
Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#5"In December 2015, we created the world’s first encrypted data science tournament for stock market predictions. Since then, Numerai data scientists have submitted 13,350,675,598 equity price predictions.
The most accurate and original machine learning models from the world’s best data scientists are synthesized into a collective artificial intelligence that controls the capital in Numerai’s hedge fund."
What does this mean? What do they do?
Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#6"In December 2015, we created the world’s first encrypted data science tournament for stock market predictions. Since then, Numerai data scientists have submitted 13,350,675,598 equity price predictions. The most accurate and original machine learning models from the world’s best data scientists are synthesized into a collective artificial intelligence that controls the capital in Numerai’s hedge fund." What does thi…
Monkeys throwing darts at the board.
This brings to mind the Buffett hedge fund wager, where he invested in a vanguard s&p 500 tracking fund (VFIAX) and a hedge fund actively managed an equal amount, and Mr. Buffett ended up winning handily.
Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#7The training set just has anonymized features. Data scientists generally would like to know the nature of the data they are working with. Does the site at any point give access to the labeled featured?
Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#8"In December 2015, we created the world’s first encrypted data science tournament for stock market predictions. Since then, Numerai data scientists have submitted 13,350,675,598 equity price predictions. The most accurate and original machine learning models from the world’s best data scientists are synthesized into a collective artificial intelligence that controls the capital in Numerai’s hedge fund." What does thi…
Monkeys throwing darts at the board. This brings to mind the Buffett hedge fund wager, where he invested in a vanguard s&p 500 tracking fund (VFIAX) and a hedge fund actively managed an equal amount, and Mr. Buffett ended up winning handily.
Really smart monkeys. And monkeys which will (hopefully) be self-correcting to converge on the bulls-eye.
Most people don't realize that the "markets" are 49% random, 48% sentiment driven, and 3% fundamentals. If you approach the problem with that assumption held true, monkeys throwing darts isn't such a horrible mechanism for investing.
See: "Monkeys Are Better Stockpickers Than You'd Think: Why dart-throwing primates demolish S&P 500 returns and most active fund managers don't even come close." http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424053111903927604579...
Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#9"In December 2015, we created the world’s first encrypted data science tournament for stock market predictions. Since then, Numerai data scientists have submitted 13,350,675,598 equity price predictions. The most accurate and original machine learning models from the world’s best data scientists are synthesized into a collective artificial intelligence that controls the capital in Numerai’s hedge fund." What does thi…
Leaving out the marketing hyperbole, it means that Numerai's core software is an automated trading system derived from, and ostensibly trained on, the most accurate pricing models and insights put forward by participants (the data scientists).
Participants with the most accurate [1] insights are paid a sum in exchange for the insights being incorporated into the hedge fund's trading system, which in turn manages the fund's capital.
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1. "Accurate" is a tricky word and I can't comment here on how much effort Numerai puts into ensuring that insights are accurate over meaningful time scales instead of being the result of e.g. overfitting. The insights could presumably be accurate on ranges of anywhere between "once" and "months."
Re: Numerai – A hedge fund built by a global community of anonymous data scientists
#10"In December 2015, we created the world’s first encrypted data science tournament for stock market predictions. Since then, Numerai data scientists have submitted 13,350,675,598 equity price predictions. The most accurate and original machine learning models from the world’s best data scientists are synthesized into a collective artificial intelligence that controls the capital in Numerai’s hedge fund." What does thi…
Monkeys throwing darts at the board. This brings to mind the Buffett hedge fund wager, where he invested in a vanguard s&p 500 tracking fund (VFIAX) and a hedge fund actively managed an equal amount, and Mr. Buffett ended up winning handily.
It's easy to be dismissive of this, especially by working from the popular Warren-Buffet-index-funds-beat-hedge-funds story that makes the rounds. It's true that most hedge funds and active traders lose money (or at least, underperform the market). But as I am fond of pointing out, there are a non-negligible number of funds and traders who consistently and demonstrably earn significantly stronger returns than the market benchmark, even net of fees.
I am skeptical of Numerai for different reasons. If someone can consistently churn out profitable and novel equity pricing insights, it would be more rational for them to work for a more well established hedge fund in quantitative research. Perhaps more importantly, I'm skeptical of how they judge accuracy in their participant-volunteered insights.