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Re: undefined

#151

Post by threeseed »

Tsugumo wrote: post #146
threeseed wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't make much sense. Super Tuesday primaries included all likely Republican voters. But Trump only has the support of about 40% of them and nothing he has done to date indicates that number is changing. And there is no evidence that electoral fraud is likely to decide the election. In fact it's looking like efforts to prevent it e.g. in Indiana are far more likely to influence the election.

The record-breaking Republican turnout was due to Trump, and I think it is reasonable to believe that the vast majority of Republicans will vote Trump over Hillary, or 3rd party. At the same time, many independents and Bernie supporters will vote Trump as well. In my mind, Trump is the Republican Obama, and will benefit from many first-time voters, and a large turnout in general. It does not seem to me that Hillary h…

You're confused again. Trump had record breaking PRIMARY turnout. All polls taken so far have him only getting about 40% of Republicans. And there is no evidence what so ever that he is drawing in independents or Bernie supporters at any significant rate.

He is down by on average 7 points nationally for a reason.

Re: undefined

#152

Post by api »

bjourne wrote: post #127
bobsgame wrote: post #38

I'm not very political and I haven't decided who to vote for yet, but I don't understand why the tech industry is so anti-Trump. He seems like a relatively sincere and smart guy to me, and some of his policies seem to be better for business. Is it because of tougher immigration laws? Are there other reasons based on his policies, or is it mostly just emotional?

Views on Global Warming: "Well, I think the climate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax. A lot of people are making a lot of money. I know much about climate change. ... " "NBC News just called it the great freeze - coldest weather in years. Is our country still spending money on the GLOBAL WARMING HOAX?" "I don’t believe in climate change." "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chin…

Saying the Chinese invented Global Warming is batty, but it is certainly true that they have become more competitive in manufacturing by game theoretically "defecting" on it -- going crazy with cheap coal power to undercut all the other nations who have taken at least some steps to reduce CO2 emission.

Of course Trump's point was not that nuanced. He said the batty thing as near as I have heard, and I have not heard any substantial proposals on how he might correct the trade imbalance without wrecking the economy by starting a trade war in a fragile economy.

Re: undefined

#153

Post by code_sardaukar »

easyd wrote: post #144

Everyone seems to think it's about maximizing his ROI or, less cynical, about economics. But here's a quote from Thiel's speech at the republican convention: "Instead of going to Mars, we have invaded the Middle East. We don't need to see Hillary Clinton's deleted emails: her incompetence is in plain sight. She pushed for a war in Libya, and today it's a training ground for ISIS. On this most important issue, Donald…

Clinton's plan for Syria is scary. Ironically it displays the kind of toughness that Trump claims to represent. Personally I think it is a bad move, and Russia has already been reasonable, e.g. backing the Iran deal.

You don't even need to be a libertarian or an isolationist to believe that the neoconservative approach is wrong.

Re: undefined

#154

Post by nostrademons »

api wrote: post #148
himynameistimli wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually if he loses, he becomes the first investor in a ultra conservative right-wing media empire, Trump Media, which appears to already have quite a large following.

I wonder if launching this media outlet is the real purpose of the campaign. It's at least more plausible than the Trump is throwing the election for Hillary conspiracy theory.

He might very well have set up a "heads I win, tails I win more" gambit. If he wins the election, he's president. If he loses, he has 30 million or so passionate customers for his next business venture.

Re: undefined

#155

Post by CptJamesCook »

davesque wrote: post #117

My breaking point with Trump (when I decided he is a menace to American society) was reached a long time ago with his proposed ban on Muslim immigration. It was demagoguery not unlike the kind used by Hitler -- attempting to place blame on a very clearly defined minority group to make his followers more motivated. Doing this was simply not right in the most fundamental way and painted a target mostly on innocent peop…

A comparison between Trump and Hitler is ridiculous. There is simply no comparison, and the idea of is an insult to the millions slaughtered by Nazi Germany.

9 years before Hitler became president of Germany, he wrote in Mein Kampf: "the personification of the devil as the symbol of all evil assumes the living shape of the Jew." and "Aryans were, and are, alone “the carrier of the development of human culture."

He foreshadowed the Holocaust by saying "that the ‘sacrifice of millions at the front’ would have been prevented if ‘twelve or fifteen thousand of these Hebrew corrupters of the people had been held under poison gas."

12 years later, he killed (among others) over 15 million Jews, gays, Russian civilians, and Roma people.

Trump on the other hand, has said "“total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on.” He also said "And by the way, many, many, most Muslims are wonderful people."

I challenge you to find a quote of Hitler saying something this nice about Jews.

Re: undefined

#156

Post by 2AF3 »

mixologic wrote: post #149
2AF3 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the pictures of the number of people in attendance at their respective events one would conclude Trump is ahead.

Which is why thats an awful gauge of the electorate. The vast majority of voters do not attend political events, and "attendees at events" is really just an uncorrelated measure of "enthusiasm for a candidate amongst their base". If 40% of the country loved him so much that they all showed up at every single rally, yet the other 60% hate him, and will vote for HRC despite not really loving her, then you see a rally f…

It might not be great, but I trust it more than these dishonest polls

Re: undefined

#157

Post by douche »

api wrote: post #122
bobsgame wrote: post #38

I'm not very political and I haven't decided who to vote for yet, but I don't understand why the tech industry is so anti-Trump. He seems like a relatively sincere and smart guy to me, and some of his policies seem to be better for business. Is it because of tougher immigration laws? Are there other reasons based on his policies, or is it mostly just emotional?

Can't speak for others, only myself. To me he's an obvious off the charts narcissist... so much so that his narcissism actually seems extreme against the backdrop of Washington politics and the media. That's kind of amazing. IMHO that disqualifies him from the presidency regardless of his policies. It's analogous to why you can't get a pilot's license with bad eyesight. A narcissist is a person with a dangerous addic…

I think your last point holds a lotof the key. I'm technically coastal, but where I come from is more Rust Belt in character. Things used to be good, maybe not great, but a lot of people made a living doing honest work and supported strong communities a generation ago. People in those areas today look around and see a gutted, graying, opiod-dependent third-world wasteland where they used to thrive. Things are not better for them.

Re: undefined

#158

Post by threeseed »

himynameistimli wrote: post #135
nostrademons wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much all of Thiel's investing thesis is to invest in things that are statistically on track to fail, but whose payoff if they succeed is greater than most people imagine. PayPal, Facebook - both of these were terrible ideas when they came out (along with a number of other ones that did, in fact, fail). His idea is that people consistently mis-price risk, and so investing in a portfolio where everyone else thin…

Actually if he loses, he becomes the first investor in a ultra conservative right-wing media empire, Trump Media, which appears to already have quite a large following.

This is exactly what is happening.

You have the personalities in Trump and Giuliani etc. You have the news content courtesy of Brietbart. You have lifestyle content courtesy of his real estate assets e.g. golf/travel shows etc. And he already owns a TV production company that made the Apprentice.

And don't forget that Lachlan Murdoch is now firmly in charge of Fox News and has always talked about it being less alt-right and more centre-right. This will leave a massive opening for Trump in the alt-right space. The real question is whether Fox will allow it on their global cable platforms.

Re: undefined

#159

Post by AndrewKemendo »

nodesocket wrote: post #2

Not convinced this is Hacker News worthy. Let's keep politics in political forums.

Technology has always been political, even moreso today. to ignore that in search for purism around codebase discussions is at the peril of this forum.

Re: undefined

#160

Post by natrius »

morgante wrote: post #113
internaut wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe you're missing a puzzle piece. Take the time out to watch a few of his Youtube videos. They are long and have very low view counts but they're important.

Sorry, but the priors on a random Internet commentator insisting that the only way to understand his farfetched, radical theory is to watch hours of videos are not very positive. It would be helpful if you could provide a rational and concise summary here. I'd genuinely like to learn more.

Short answer: globalization hurts the developed world in the absence of real technological breakthroughs (energy too cheap to meter, something we use a lot gets can now be made for half the price, etc.). A richer world just means more competition for scarce things. The rational policy for a self-interested superpower might be to ease up on globalization.
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