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Re: undefined

#131

Post by ScottBurson »

morgante wrote: post #60
internaut wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the Stagnation Hypothesis. More precisely it is the high level implications of the Stagnation Hypothesis. You won't know it from HN or a survey of typical developers but the people who really run Silicon Valley have a set of beliefs about the world which are very different to the people who work for them. Watch this all the way through. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMpmfaE9bII

I'm not talking about typical developers. Lots of top technology leaders have come out vehemently against Trump, [0] including Sam Altman, who I would definitely include in "the people who really run Silicon Valley." [1] To be clear, I'm not disputing Thiel's politics. I think he's right about a lot of things. They have near-zero overlap with Trump's policies. Trump is easily the least libertarian Republican presiden…

Yeah, I'm with you. From the article:

A source close to [Thiel] says the investor feels the country needs fixing, and Mr. Trump can do it.

The first part I completely get: there are a lot of things that need fixing. It's the second part that has me scraping my jaw off the floor.

Re: undefined

#132

Post by seanieb »

bobsgame wrote: post #38

I'm not very political and I haven't decided who to vote for yet, but I don't understand why the tech industry is so anti-Trump. He seems like a relatively sincere and smart guy to me, and some of his policies seem to be better for business. Is it because of tougher immigration laws? Are there other reasons based on his policies, or is it mostly just emotional?

He suggested banning folks with a particular religion from entering the country...that's some crazy dangerous fucked up shit. He has a bunch more crazy policies, but this is the most dangerous and frankly unheard of before Trump.

Re: undefined

#133

Post by 2AF3 »

blhack wrote: post #32
vinhboy wrote: post #17

Politics aside. What does it say about his judgement to continue investing in something that is statistically on track to fail. Not only that, but its also a toxic brand to attach yourself to. Or do we just put this in the "expensive new hobby" section and leave it at that. ---- Update: I want to hijack my own comment to ponder something. As someone with no money and no influence, I find it hard to think about how to…

Trump isn't nearly as far behind as you may think: http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ Yes, this poll is an outlier because their methodology is very different than most other polls. Yes, Nate Silver has a very different outlook on the election, but Nate Silver was also not very reliable during the primary season (although that is, by his admission, because primaries don't have very good poll…

If you look at the pictures of the number of people in attendance at their respective events one would conclude Trump is ahead.

Re: undefined

#134

Post by daveguy »

bassman9000 wrote: post #46

Interesting to see that many comments on money buying influence. Yet no one seems to consider the possibility that the most pro-establishment candidate, with a proven track of money-for-favors trafficking is, in Thiel's opinion, a worse outcome.

I wasn't aware either had a proven record of money for favors. Except maybe Trump's donation in Florida.

Re: undefined

#135

Post by himynameistimli »

nostrademons wrote: post #42
vinhboy wrote: post #17

Politics aside. What does it say about his judgement to continue investing in something that is statistically on track to fail. Not only that, but its also a toxic brand to attach yourself to. Or do we just put this in the "expensive new hobby" section and leave it at that. ---- Update: I want to hijack my own comment to ponder something. As someone with no money and no influence, I find it hard to think about how to…

Pretty much all of Thiel's investing thesis is to invest in things that are statistically on track to fail, but whose payoff if they succeed is greater than most people imagine. PayPal, Facebook - both of these were terrible ideas when they came out (along with a number of other ones that did, in fact, fail). His idea is that people consistently mis-price risk, and so investing in a portfolio where everyone else thin…

Actually if he loses, he becomes the first investor in a ultra conservative right-wing media empire, Trump Media, which appears to already have quite a large following.

Re: undefined

#136

Post by thesimpsons1022 »

AvenueIngres wrote: post #92
inimino wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tech leans liberal and highly-educated, demographically not a good fit for Trump.

Because voting behaviors and income levels are highly correlated. Stop right there if you believe that people dislike Trump because they are "smarter". It is a cheap to make you feel good about yourself.

not really. it is really true. can almost guarantee that the IQ percentile of those supporting trump is on average 20+ points lower than the opposite camp. Both income and education level are highly correlated with both IQ and voting against trump.

Re: undefined

#137

Post by m_ke »

morgante wrote: post #29

I'm genuinely curious what the rational for Thiel is in doing this. He's a smart guy, but I just don't see the ROI. At this point, it seems very unlikely that Trump will get elected. So Thiel isn't getting access to a future President. Plus, in addition to the monetary cost of the donation there's definitely a very real reputational cost. A lot of people in SV hate Trump and are completely mystified as to Thiel's sup…

Senate races? Enthusiasm for Trump is falling and if republicans don't show up to vote then it's very likely that democrats will get control of the senate.

Then there's Palantir. Even if Trump doesn't win, the "law and order" rhetoric is resonating with a lot of americans. Trump wants to ban muslims, put together a deportation force, bring back stop and frisk, more border control, nukes for everyone, boots on the ground to fight ISIS, more surveillance, more military spending. All of these would lead to more government contracts for Palantir.

Re: undefined

#138

Post by [deleted] »

vinhboy wrote: post #17

Politics aside. What does it say about his judgement to continue investing in something that is statistically on track to fail. Not only that, but its also a toxic brand to attach yourself to. Or do we just put this in the "expensive new hobby" section and leave it at that. ---- Update: I want to hijack my own comment to ponder something. As someone with no money and no influence, I find it hard to think about how to…

[deleted]

Re: undefined

#139

Post by whybroke »

vinhboy wrote: post #17

Politics aside. What does it say about his judgement to continue investing in something that is statistically on track to fail. Not only that, but its also a toxic brand to attach yourself to. Or do we just put this in the "expensive new hobby" section and leave it at that. ---- Update: I want to hijack my own comment to ponder something. As someone with no money and no influence, I find it hard to think about how to…

Because the greatest threat to a hegemony of the wealthy is democracy.

And a candidacy that threatens opponents with prison, encourages voter intimidation, enlists foreign powers for cyberwarfare, intimates that any result will be rigged, distroys the norms critical to government functioning and a dozen other things, is the best investment someone who hates public control of policy could make win or loose.

Re: undefined

#140

Post by morgante »

m_ke wrote: post #137
morgante wrote: post #29

I'm genuinely curious what the rational for Thiel is in doing this. He's a smart guy, but I just don't see the ROI. At this point, it seems very unlikely that Trump will get elected. So Thiel isn't getting access to a future President. Plus, in addition to the monetary cost of the donation there's definitely a very real reputational cost. A lot of people in SV hate Trump and are completely mystified as to Thiel's sup…

Senate races? Enthusiasm for Trump is falling and if republicans don't show up to vote then it's very likely that democrats will get control of the senate. Then there's Palantir. Even if Trump doesn't win, the "law and order" rhetoric is resonating with a lot of americans. Trump wants to ban muslims, put together a deportation force, bring back stop and frisk, more border control, nukes for everyone, boots on the gro…

> Then there's Palantir.

That's a fair point. Palantir is very well-positioned to be the IBM of Trumpism.

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