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How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

nytimes.com

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Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

#11

Post by davesque »

throwawayqwe wrote: post #7

I'm posting under a throwaway account just to say I agree with you; if that says anything.

I'm posting under my own account to say I disagree. We're talking about data here. Whether or not the Times has any motivation behind publishing this article, the data and methods still speak for themselves.

Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

#14

Post by MrZongle2 »

untog wrote: post #9
MrZongle2 wrote: post #3

Regarding the Times ' decision to run this article, I wonder how much of it was based upon "hey, polling is kind of goofy" and how much of was "look! Here's another way we can show that Trump isn't really resonating with voters!".

Does it matter? The point is that they published an article that is factually accurate. If they were publishing an opinion piece based on such motivations there might be an argument here. But they aren't.

Are you asking if at this point, what difference does it make?

Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

#15

Post by aetherson »

Nate Silver at 538 talks about the whole dissecting polls deal, or "unskewing" them. All polls must make methodological choices, and all of those choices have advantages and disadvantages. Spending a lot of time trying to dissect those choices and passing judgment on them is not as productive as:

1. Looking at aggregates of lots of polls.

2. Looking at the variance that a poll captures from one iteration of it to another.

Or at least, so he claims. Obviously, he runs a poll aggregator, using a model that heavily weights the trendline of individual polls, so he has a dog in this fight.

Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

#17

Post by whamlastxmas »

untog wrote: post #9
MrZongle2 wrote: post #3

Regarding the Times ' decision to run this article, I wonder how much of it was based upon "hey, polling is kind of goofy" and how much of was "look! Here's another way we can show that Trump isn't really resonating with voters!".

Does it matter? The point is that they published an article that is factually accurate. If they were publishing an opinion piece based on such motivations there might be an argument here. But they aren't.

You're completely missing the point. Publications show bias all the time based on what factual information they report (or don't report). Look at CNN.com right. Literally nothing about the new wikileaks that came out today, even in a factual manner. Plenty of opinionated anti-Trump garbage.

This is what your parent comment was referring to.

Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

#19

Post by blank_dan »

roywiggins wrote: post #16
blank_dan wrote: post #8

Let's go find the really heavily weighted members of _all_ the polls and dox them too. This way we can screw them all up. Not just one that is influenced by a potential Trump voter.

This isn't doxxing.

'Spose not. I think it is an attempt to subvert the authenticity of the poll though.
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