How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
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Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#2This is really fascinating. I get why the poll creators made these decisions, but the results of the weighting lead to a ridiculous result compared to other polls. Supposedly this poll was extremely accurate in 2012, so who knows?
Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#3Regarding the Times' decision to run this article, I wonder how much of it was based upon "hey, polling is kind of goofy" and how much of was "look! Here's another way we can show that Trump isn't really resonating with voters!".
Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#4This is really fascinating. I get why the poll creators made these decisions, but the results of the weighting lead to a ridiculous result compared to other polls. Supposedly this poll was extremely accurate in 2012, so who knows?
I'm not sure I get why they bracketed the age group so small as 18–21 vs the broader census definition.
Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#5This is really fascinating. I get why the poll creators made these decisions, but the results of the weighting lead to a ridiculous result compared to other polls. Supposedly this poll was extremely accurate in 2012, so who knows?
Then the poll creators made bad decisions. Even with transparency there's no reason why a poll can't be constructed specifically to heavily favor a particular candidate which it seems is just the case.
It's very humorous when Trump cites this poll considering what an outlier of civilized humanity he is. Matches nicely.
Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#6This is really fascinating. I get why the poll creators made these decisions, but the results of the weighting lead to a ridiculous result compared to other polls. Supposedly this poll was extremely accurate in 2012, so who knows?
I'm not sure I get why they bracketed the age group so small as 18–21 vs the broader census definition.
This is the first presidential election for those voters.
Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#7I'm posting under a throwaway account just to say I agree with you; if that says anything.
Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#8Let's go find the really heavily weighted members of _all_ the polls and dox them too. This way we can screw them all up. Not just one that is influenced by a potential Trump voter.
Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#9Regarding the Times ' decision to run this article, I wonder how much of it was based upon "hey, polling is kind of goofy" and how much of was "look! Here's another way we can show that Trump isn't really resonating with voters!".
Does it matter? The point is that they published an article that is factually accurate. If they were publishing an opinion piece based on such motivations there might be an argument here. But they aren't.
Re: How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
#10This is really fascinating. I get why the poll creators made these decisions, but the results of the weighting lead to a ridiculous result compared to other polls. Supposedly this poll was extremely accurate in 2012, so who knows?
Then the poll creators made bad decisions. Even with transparency there's no reason why a poll can't be constructed specifically to heavily favor a particular candidate which it seems is just the case. It's very humorous when Trump cites this poll considering what an outlier of civilized humanity he is. Matches nicely.
Interesting use of the word 'civilized' that I wasn't previously aware of.