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Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

nytimes.com

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Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#171

Post by mehwoot »

coldtea wrote: post #164

> Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing? Because when the shit comes to shove and the global economy takes a nosedive or your previous friendly third world manufactures give you the finger, having a "service industry" is worth nothing, but being able to produce the actual shit your businesses design and sell/export, matters. Of course for the US this might be less so, because they can always force, by di…

From the article:

The value of stuff made in America reached a record high in the first quarter of 2016, even after adjusting for inflation.

It's not that the U.S. doesn't make things anymore, it's that there aren't endless jobs in making things.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#172

Post by EGreg »

This is why: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-sector_theory

The Great Depression saw the "creative destruction" of farm labor. People migrated to cities and it took a long time for the economy to shift to manyfacturing.

Manufacturing jobs disappeared more gradually, but are now gone due to automation and outsourcing.

The only way they will come back is to robots.

The next sector is IP, it's one of the USA's biggest exports -- movies, music, ideas, brands, etc. Designed in California, assembled in China. That's why the USA has such a strong IP lobby and negotiates international treaties and bullies guys like Kin Dotcom.

What's left after that? Well, why do we all NEED jobs? Because currently wages is the primary mechanism of getting money to the masses. But demand for human labor is falling.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#173

Post by ZeroGravitas »

nickpinkston wrote: post #3

I figured they were just suckers for factory tours, or at least photos ops with the "working man". Also, a lot of the Left longs for the days of big factories and big union collective bargaining that could raise the wages a lot of people quickly. It's a great thing to point to with good economies of scale. Globalization has made this a mostly untenable strategy, but the longing remains.

http://georgeosborneinahighvisjacket.tumblr.com/

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#175

Post by dagw »

Houshalter wrote: post #9
twblalock wrote: post #2

Last week's NYT article on free trade was pretty good: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-weal... This is the bottom line on American manufacturing: > From 2000 to 2010, the United States lost some 5.6 million manufacturing jobs, by the government’s calculation. Only 13 percent of those job losses can be explained by trade, according to an analysis by the Center for Business and Economic Research…

But there aren't a finite number of factories. If more factory work gets automated, then it will reduce the cost of building more factories and producing even more goods. Whereas service jobs seem more finite. There is only a finite demand for burgers or shelf stockers, unless you increase the population. I really don't understand how a mostly service based economy is sustainable. In any case, the service based jobs…

Whereas service jobs seem more finite.

Not sure I agree. At the moment, I'm buying all the goods I reasonably want. Sure I might want to replace some of my cheap goods with expensive goods or some of my old goods new goods, but on the whole I don't really want to consume more goods.

On the other hand, I can easily think of dozens of services I would either start consuming, or would consume a lot more of, if they existed at an acceptable convenience and price point. The problem, as I can tell from my phrasing, is creating service jobs at a salary level that people can live on.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#176

Post by jfoutz »

maverick_iceman wrote: post #150
jfoutz wrote: post #35

Politicians are amateurs. I don't mean that in a pejorative way. Politicians are experts at politics, they can achieve consensus in seemingly impossible circumstances. If you pick a random politician, and ask them to design a transmission, or perform open heart surgery, they'd do as poorly as you or me. Yes, there are politicians from all walks of life, and you can probably find a surgeon politician. In general, the…

>and they should probably be handled by experts That experiment was tried in Soviet Union. How did that end?

A few things.

First, shoe factories not having enough leather to make quota responding by making tiny shoes is one of the most cunning gaming of metrics i've ever heard of. I think that was brilliant. People in insane situations still have great ideas.

Second, I reread my post a couple of times. I missed the collective ownership point. Could you quote the line where i said the workers should control the means of production?

Third, the US military is getting tanks they don't want. This is pretty obviously dumb, and a clear example of politicians ignoring experts.

Finally, no real deep changes are needed. Look at the EU's handling of toxic materials. If something is super toxic, but not really used by anyone, the regulation is pretty light. If something is slightly toxic and popular, the regulation is light. The dangerous popular stuff is heavily regulated. It's the kind of thoughtful, risk aware policy that's pretty rare in the US.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#177

Post by rjsw »

burfog wrote: post #161
chubs wrote: post #11

Big factories can be retrofitted in times of world war to build tanks/guns/etc. It's seen as a national security thing.

Two more national security reasons: 1. There is the problem of depending on potential enemies (all others have potential to be enemies) for goods that are critical to the military and/or general economy. Suppliers can threaten to cut supplies. Note that this can happen even if actual shooting war is unlikely; the threat to cut supplies is a brutal negotiating tactic that can block us diplomatically. For example, if w…

I don't think the example in your second point is true. France did help the UK a lot but the Exocet missiles worked fine, one was even launched from the back of a truck.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#178

Post by _pmf_ »

pjc50 wrote: post #167
coldtea wrote: post #164

> Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing? Because when the shit comes to shove and the global economy takes a nosedive or your previous friendly third world manufactures give you the finger, having a "service industry" is worth nothing, but being able to produce the actual shit your businesses design and sell/export, matters. Of course for the US this might be less so, because they can always force, by di…

"Service industry" includes financial services, which have been hugely lucrative to the West. It's a globally integrated supply chain, and cannot be otherwise. There is no way countries are going back to a blast-furnace-to-car vertically integrated manufacturing world. It costs far too much and you couldn't even do it back when Ford tried it. He needed to import rubber, modern cars need to import chips. The only non-…

> "Service industry" includes financial services, which have been hugely lucrative to the West.

If you buy into the philosophy that it is something other than an elaborate global Ponzi scheme.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#179

Post by coldtea »

pjc50 wrote: post #167
coldtea wrote: post #164

> Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing? Because when the shit comes to shove and the global economy takes a nosedive or your previous friendly third world manufactures give you the finger, having a "service industry" is worth nothing, but being able to produce the actual shit your businesses design and sell/export, matters. Of course for the US this might be less so, because they can always force, by di…

"Service industry" includes financial services, which have been hugely lucrative to the West. It's a globally integrated supply chain, and cannot be otherwise. There is no way countries are going back to a blast-furnace-to-car vertically integrated manufacturing world. It costs far too much and you couldn't even do it back when Ford tried it. He needed to import rubber, modern cars need to import chips. The only non-…

>"Service industry" includes financial services, which have been hugely lucrative to the West.

For whom?

>It's a globally integrated supply chain, and cannot be otherwise. There is no way countries are going back to a blast-furnace-to-car vertically integrated manufacturing world.

The most competitive manufacturing though is "blast-furnace-to-car vertically integrated", just not within the same factory (which it wasn't even in Ford's time as you said) but within the same country. That's why China is so much better at it, because it has the whole manufacturing supply chain next door to the final assembly line. Of course you need materials (rubber, metals, oil, etc) but that's something different and at a lower level than manufacture.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#180

Post by cconcepts »

coldtea wrote: post #164

> Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing? Because when the shit comes to shove and the global economy takes a nosedive or your previous friendly third world manufactures give you the finger, having a "service industry" is worth nothing, but being able to produce the actual shit your businesses design and sell/export, matters. Of course for the US this might be less so, because they can always force, by di…

For a relatively angry-toned comment, I feel you hit the nail on the head.
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