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Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

nytimes.com

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Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#21

Post by moron4hire »

Houshalter wrote: post #9
twblalock wrote: post #2

Last week's NYT article on free trade was pretty good: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-weal... This is the bottom line on American manufacturing: > From 2000 to 2010, the United States lost some 5.6 million manufacturing jobs, by the government’s calculation. Only 13 percent of those job losses can be explained by trade, according to an analysis by the Center for Business and Economic Research…

But there aren't a finite number of factories. If more factory work gets automated, then it will reduce the cost of building more factories and producing even more goods. Whereas service jobs seem more finite. There is only a finite demand for burgers or shelf stockers, unless you increase the population. I really don't understand how a mostly service based economy is sustainable. In any case, the service based jobs…

    there aren't a finite number of factories
Please reconsider the absolutely absurdity of this statement.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#22

Post by pavedwalden »

twblalock wrote: post #2

Last week's NYT article on free trade was pretty good: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-weal... This is the bottom line on American manufacturing: > From 2000 to 2010, the United States lost some 5.6 million manufacturing jobs, by the government’s calculation. Only 13 percent of those job losses can be explained by trade, according to an analysis by the Center for Business and Economic Research…

>However, I suspect that most politicians who talk about a manufacturing revival understand that it won't really happen.

The thought that maybe some of them don't understand that is what scares me the most.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#23

Post by philipkglass »

Houshalter wrote: post #9
twblalock wrote: post #2

Last week's NYT article on free trade was pretty good: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-weal... This is the bottom line on American manufacturing: > From 2000 to 2010, the United States lost some 5.6 million manufacturing jobs, by the government’s calculation. Only 13 percent of those job losses can be explained by trade, according to an analysis by the Center for Business and Economic Research…

But there aren't a finite number of factories. If more factory work gets automated, then it will reduce the cost of building more factories and producing even more goods. Whereas service jobs seem more finite. There is only a finite demand for burgers or shelf stockers, unless you increase the population. I really don't understand how a mostly service based economy is sustainable. In any case, the service based jobs…

There's a finite demand for manufactured goods too. If anything, the price elasticity for manufactured goods seems likely to be lesser than that for restaurant meals; I'd eat out more often if it cost less, but I'm not going to buy additional dishwashers or dining tables for my house no matter how cheap they get. I'm not going to buy light bulbs or printers faster than they need replacement due to failure. With laser printers and LED bulbs, that can be several years between purchases.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#24

Post by dragonwriter »

Houshalter wrote: post #9
twblalock wrote: post #2

Last week's NYT article on free trade was pretty good: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-weal... This is the bottom line on American manufacturing: > From 2000 to 2010, the United States lost some 5.6 million manufacturing jobs, by the government’s calculation. Only 13 percent of those job losses can be explained by trade, according to an analysis by the Center for Business and Economic Research…

But there aren't a finite number of factories. If more factory work gets automated, then it will reduce the cost of building more factories and producing even more goods. Whereas service jobs seem more finite. There is only a finite demand for burgers or shelf stockers, unless you increase the population. I really don't understand how a mostly service based economy is sustainable. In any case, the service based jobs…

> But there aren't a finite number of factories.

There absolutely is a finite number of factories.

There's probably even a finite, though perhaps quite large, limit on the number of factories that can exist (at least, within Earth's future light cone.)

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#25

Post by zanny »

Houshalter wrote: post #9
twblalock wrote: post #2

Last week's NYT article on free trade was pretty good: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-weal... This is the bottom line on American manufacturing: > From 2000 to 2010, the United States lost some 5.6 million manufacturing jobs, by the government’s calculation. Only 13 percent of those job losses can be explained by trade, according to an analysis by the Center for Business and Economic Research…

But there aren't a finite number of factories. If more factory work gets automated, then it will reduce the cost of building more factories and producing even more goods. Whereas service jobs seem more finite. There is only a finite demand for burgers or shelf stockers, unless you increase the population. I really don't understand how a mostly service based economy is sustainable. In any case, the service based jobs…

> unless you increase the population.

That doesn't help either. If you are increasing population without that population having wealth (and generally the wealthier you are the fewer kids you have) you dilute the distributed wealth of the poor to the point where they no longer have the economic influence to warrant hiring shelf stockers or burger flippers because they have no money.

> There are already a number of prototype burger making robots, for instance.

The automation of service is not coming in the form of robots doing a service workers job, its computers obsoleting the service. It is the same thing trying to make the "perfect" veggie burger vs learning to love naturally vegan dishes.

It is companies like Amazon that are displacing service workers by the thousands. There is so much potential revenue to be made and costs to be saved by having a wholly automated supply chain, and eventually you are having your burgers air dropped on demand by drone rather than having to go anywhere in a self driving taxi to get the burger. The logistics of service will... are... changing fundamentally, constantly, every day, progressing towards those eventualities.

It is not a problem tax rates or "American grit" solve. It requires a rethinking of your economic system when you finally accept reality that swathes of productive gains are not being made by the sweat of a single human being, at which point the fruits of those labors are no longer compatible with traditional laissez faire capitalism.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#26

Post by serge2k »

helloworld wrote: post #10

I wasn't aware of these facts: -- [T]here can be no revival of American manufacturing, because there has been no collapse. Because of automation, there are far fewer jobs in factories. But the value of stuff made in America reached a record high in the first quarter of 2016, even after adjusting for inflation. -- [T]here were 64,000 steelworkers in America last year, and 820,000 home health aides.... Soon, we will be…

> I think I'd vote for McKinsey, Bain, or BCG to manage the executive branch instead of our current Presidential candidates

Why not just give them whatever money they ask for and be done with it?

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#27

Post by trhway »

sriram_sun wrote: post #13

The votes that can turn the tide in this election are those in the rust belt. Manufacturing is the key word that gets their attention. I believe that's why. All other reasons are secondary. It was about the financial crisis in 2008 and Bain Capital in 2012 which ended up affecting manufacturing jobs.

yep, politicians say what their voters like to hear (and do what their donors want to be done :). For example California politicians don't talk about manufacturing, instead they talk education, environment/climate change, security, minorities rights, some talk agriculture, etc... some even talk UFO/aliens (if you didn't read the official CA booklet listing candidates and their statements for this year race for the US Senate Barbara Boxer's seat you missed a lot of fun :)

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#28

Post by gutnor »

Houshalter wrote: post #9
twblalock wrote: post #2

Last week's NYT article on free trade was pretty good: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/29/business/economy/more-weal... This is the bottom line on American manufacturing: > From 2000 to 2010, the United States lost some 5.6 million manufacturing jobs, by the government’s calculation. Only 13 percent of those job losses can be explained by trade, according to an analysis by the Center for Business and Economic Research…

But there aren't a finite number of factories. If more factory work gets automated, then it will reduce the cost of building more factories and producing even more goods. Whereas service jobs seem more finite. There is only a finite demand for burgers or shelf stockers, unless you increase the population. I really don't understand how a mostly service based economy is sustainable. In any case, the service based jobs…

Factories do not scale as well as service because they need are limited by natural resources. Service can literally be created out of thin air. For example, an AI could create an infinite number of movies or books or insurance contract. A factory making widget will be limited by availability of raw material.

They both share the same limitation at the end of the day. At the end, the human being is relatively static. You can sell widget and services that free more of his time, and then you can sell widget and services that occupy that free time, maybe at a stretch you can sell him something to free the time occupied by other stuff he bought, but there is a limit at 24 hours attention span per human.

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#29

Post by yummyfajitas »

rfrank wrote: post #18
hueving wrote: post #4

Manufacturing is a target because it's easy for people to see concrete results. They can point at something and say, "we made that", and it tends to generate some sense of pride. The same doesn't really apply for service industries or innovation in the service industries: "we produced consumer surplus by lowering transportation costs via automation" doesn't roll off the tongue as well. :) The same problem exists for…

Manufacturing also provides jobs for both high and low skill workers. As such can be seen as more valuable to a community than say, a software company that only hires engineers and a CS center in a different state. Manufacturing was one of the best roads for a low skill worker to earn good money and move up the rung economically - something that only seems to be getting harder as time goes on.

It may seem to be getting harder, but in reality it's not. Rank based measures of mobility are stable. Since income inequality is up, absolute mobility has also increased.

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/chettyetalAERPP2014.pdf

Re: Why Are Politicians So Obsessed with Manufacturing?

#30

Post by taneq »

hueving wrote: post #4

Manufacturing is a target because it's easy for people to see concrete results. They can point at something and say, "we made that", and it tends to generate some sense of pride. The same doesn't really apply for service industries or innovation in the service industries: "we produced consumer surplus by lowering transportation costs via automation" doesn't roll off the tongue as well. :) The same problem exists for…

> "we produced consumer surplus by lowering transportation costs via automation" doesn't roll off the tongue as well. :)

Yeah, but "check out our shiny robot trucks" seems to be an acceptable brag these days. :)

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