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Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

newyorker.com

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Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#211

Post by nostrademons »

jedberg wrote: post #170
pdog wrote: post #155

> Nothing came of Paul Graham’s plan for tech to stop Donald Trump, but Altman, after brooding about Trump for months, recently announced a nonpartisan project, called VotePlz, aimed at getting out the youth vote. Looking at the election as a tech problem—what’s the least code with the most payoff?—Altman and his three co-founders concentrated on helping young people in nine swing states to register, by providing the…

Get out the vote campaigns are always in favor of Democrats, because the young and poor tend to be the ones who don't vote and tend to vote Democrat. Back in the 90s MTV had "Rock the Vote" (actually it was a progressive non-profit who partnered with MTV) and their goal was the same.

Interestingly, 538 ran a piece recently that implies that that's not the case this election, and that Trump actually has far more upside from unregistered voters than Clinton does:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-cou...

The summary is that by far the largest unregistered cohort is those who are young, poor, and uneducated. And this election, the poor and uneducated group is largely in Trump's camp, while in past elections they may have split roughly evenly between Republicans and Democrats depending on other issues.

The other interesting thing is that the Trump campaign has done fairly little with voter registration drives, perhaps because of this image of it largely helping Democrats. Would be an interesting example of how hewing to common wisdom rather than data can end up hurting a candidate, if 538's analysis is true.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#212

Post by rsync »

apsec112 wrote: post #51

I continue to be impressed by the quality of The New Yorker's reporting. This is so far above and beyond most media coverage about Altman and YC.

"I continue to be impressed by the quality of The New Yorker's reporting."

It really is quite good and I have gone out of my way over these past 8 years or so to show them whatever patronage I can. To that end, I subscribe to the digital version on my kindle as well as buy the print version (which I prefer, aesthetically).

Since we're talking about it, I think any discussion of how good the New Yorker is has to touch on how good the London Review of Books is. It's a truly remarkable publication. Very, very left leaning but I appreciate it nonetheless. I highly recommend an LRB subscription to anyone that appreciates good, original, thoughtful reporting and commentary. As a bonus, you get a very different perspective on many world events than you get from US media.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#214

Post by Jd »

johnwheeler wrote: post #11

The brilliance of YCombinator, IMO, is HackerNews. It's turned YC into a self-perpetuating machine by getting smart people to congregate and talk about news YC itself partially generates. I heard about YC, PG, and sama all through this outlet.

Agreed but you have to credit PG's earlier work that makes this all credible as an uber-nerd watering hole (i.e. his guide to Lisp, Arc, Hackers and Painters, etc.).

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#215

Post by jedberg »

nostrademons wrote: post #211
jedberg wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Get out the vote campaigns are always in favor of Democrats, because the young and poor tend to be the ones who don't vote and tend to vote Democrat. Back in the 90s MTV had "Rock the Vote" (actually it was a progressive non-profit who partnered with MTV) and their goal was the same.

Interestingly, 538 ran a piece recently that implies that that's not the case this election, and that Trump actually has far more upside from unregistered voters than Clinton does: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-cou... The summary is that by far the largest unregistered cohort is those who are young, poor, and uneducated . And this election, the poor and uneducated group is largely in Trump'…

This is fascinating. And I definitely trust data more than common wisdom. Good thing for the Democrats that Trump doesn't. :)

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#216

Post by AndrewKemendo »

n72 wrote: post #169
anondon wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So, Sam's been at this for 2 years, inherited an extremely well oiled machine, and hasn't, as far as I know, accomplished anything extraordinary. What accomplishments did you expect in 2 years? Working towards OpenAI, YC Research, the upcoming MOOC, basic income project, the private city project seem very impressive to say the least. After he has taken over, YC is expanding into new areas, mentioned above, whereas…

The things you list are plans, not accomplishments. And I certainly didn't expect extraordinary accomplishments. I just don't understand what in Sam's history warrants a New Yorker article over, say, that of CEOs who have competently run their business for the last 2 years.

You'll probably have an easier time understanding it if you get rid of the idea that publicity/press/attention/investment/anything is based on merit.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#217

Post by joeyspn »

nathan_f77 wrote: post #185

My favorite part of the article (so far): > “My problem is that when my friends get drunk they talk about the ways the world will end. After a Dutch lab modified the H5N1 bird-flu virus, five years ago, making it super contagious, the chance of a lethal synthetic virus being released in the next twenty years became, well, nonzero. The other most popular scenarios would be A.I. that attacks us and nations fighting wit…

Interesting, so sama is a prepper... and he knows that gold will be the only thing with some value left after a financial armaggedon...

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#218

Post by tomcam »

jedberg wrote: post #215
nostrademons wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, 538 ran a piece recently that implies that that's not the case this election, and that Trump actually has far more upside from unregistered voters than Clinton does: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-cou... The summary is that by far the largest unregistered cohort is those who are young, poor, and uneducated . And this election, the poor and uneducated group is largely in Trump'…

This is fascinating. And I definitely trust data more than common wisdom. Good thing for the Democrats that Trump doesn't. :)

Citation?

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#219

Post by tomcam »

jonnathanson wrote: post #121
Artoemius wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk strikes me as an imaginative but a very rational person who deeply thinks about stuff, so this is confusing to me. His argument that our world is most likely a simulation does seem logical given our current knowledge. However, breaking out of the simulation is completely another matter, more in line with Hollywood thinking than with anything that scientists can be engaged to do, at least currently.

It's completely wacky, but if you've got a few mil to drop on wacky ideas, it starts to seem a bit less wacky in the grand scheme of things. It's basically a wager: "There's a small, but perhaps nonzero chance I'm living in a simulation. I've got the throwaway cash to fund an escape attempt. This investment has a massive chance of being completely wasted, even if this is a simulation. But if there is even a tiny chan…

High tech version of Pascal's Wager

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#220

Post by sremani »

paulcole wrote: post #206
nathan_f77 wrote: post #185

My favorite part of the article (so far): > “My problem is that when my friends get drunk they talk about the ways the world will end. After a Dutch lab modified the H5N1 bird-flu virus, five years ago, making it super contagious, the chance of a lethal synthetic virus being released in the next twenty years became, well, nonzero. The other most popular scenarios would be A.I. that attacks us and nations fighting wit…

> "I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israeli Defense Force, and a big patch of land in Big Sur I can fly to.” Imagine this coming from an ultra rightwing prepper nutball. Do you still love that quote?

I love that quote even it comes from a lunatic mule. Being prepared and being able to see the alternative endings is not a disability, but being completely obsessed and held hostage by that thought is. There is a difference.

I am not predicting impending doom, but when it hits the fan, better to have a plan than not.

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