Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#821

Post by sgt101 » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:28 AM UTC

lmm wrote: post #788

erikpukinskis wrote: post #624

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If there's even a small chance of success in establishing a self-sustaining colony [...] then any degree of personal risks levied on individual colonists are "worth it" from the species level No, the risk v reward curve has to be better than an equivalent risk v reward curve for a terrestrial species survival project to justify the mission. I would argue that just about any PhD in epidemiology, disaster relief, or…

I think no amount of geopolitics PhDs will reduce the chance of wiping out humanity through nuclear war more than Mars colonization does. I think it may take some time - centuries even - for colonizing Mars to "pay off" in terms of reduced extinction risk. But I think in the long term - say 500 years from now - we will indisputably be safer as a species if we started colonizing Mars 500 years ago than if we didn't. A…

There's a big failure of game theory (and ists) with respect to MAD; unwinding it as a dominant game would be a Ph.D for sure...

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#822

Post by andrepd » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:29 AM UTC

jernfrost wrote: post #810

mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

Agree, I wrote a medium article about exactly this phenomenon partly inspired by you: https://medium.com/@Jernfrost/the-crab-people-and-space-expl... I've been annoyed by this attitude for quite some time now. You see it all the time. Same deal with Tesla an Model S. Because not everybody can afford it, and because not all power is renewable an electric car like Tesla Model S seems like some sort of terrible crime. W…

Oh it's progress, no doubt. There's no question about that. What me and other skeptics argue against is these kinds of overly futuristic announcements that have no ground in reality, yet have people praising them like they are some kind of achievement by themselves.

Elon Musk grandly announces: I'm going to make humans an interplanetary species. This is such a grand and far reaching goal that were it to be achieved it would be by far, by very very far, the most important achievement of the human species so far. So far I've seen him put a rocket in orbit and land it again.* So excuse me if I tamper my enthusiasm.

Hyperloop, as you so mentioned? Yeah, he announced he would try to implement a concept already thought about, that without absolutely major breakthroughs in several fields remains impossible or at a cost of trillions of dollars, by far the most expensive private undertaking in history. So excuse me if I tamper my enthusiasm.

*(Don't get me wrong, this is an amazing achievement, it deserves all the praise it can get and I will be the first to give it. It's when he starts with these talks of master plans, and multitrillionaire projects, and making humans a multiplanetary species, that my brow starts to frown.m)

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#823

Post by azeotropic » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:31 AM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #620

hasbroslasher wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Criticism is good and the world needs more of it to thrive. It's not going to kill you (or Elon Musk, for that matter) to have some disagree with them. Forums were made for this very reason! 1. Part of participating in humanity is being critical. Part of participating in anything is being critical. If people have complaints, it doesn't harm you to hear them out. If you only seek to have your beliefs validated via the…

Criticism is fine. I don't like mindless criticism. I must have written my original comment poorly, because a lot of people seem to have come away with the impression that I don't want to see any comments that aren't fawning. That's not it at all! I just don't want to see knee-jerk stupid negative comments that add no value to the discussion. These do cause harm, because they waste time and derail conversations that…

You're afraid of derailing conversations that could go more interesting places? Stop posting this same argument 100 times in a single thread.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#824

Post by JMCQ87 » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:33 AM UTC

callmeatroll wrote: post #629

This is either: A) the most revolutionary venture of this century B) the largest Ponzi scheme ever

I don't see how B) would work in this case.

However, it could also simply be a huge pile of money getting burned, with a few useful innovations made along the way.

I would venture to say that is the most likely outcome, actually, although I prefer A) to happen, of course.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#825

Post by SocratesV » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:34 AM UTC

jernfrost wrote: post #810

mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

Agree, I wrote a medium article about exactly this phenomenon partly inspired by you: https://medium.com/@Jernfrost/the-crab-people-and-space-expl... I've been annoyed by this attitude for quite some time now. You see it all the time. Same deal with Tesla an Model S. Because not everybody can afford it, and because not all power is renewable an electric car like Tesla Model S seems like some sort of terrible crime. W…

Potentially relevant: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Old_Man_of_Restelo

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#826

Post by facepalm » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:40 AM UTC

bcook wrote: post #778

facepalm wrote: post #776

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You were told the moon landing was about human progress and exploring frontiers. In reality it was just about beating the Russians in the cold war. Sorry.

Can't it be all of the above?

It's expensive, so you have to give reasons or spending the money. The money was spent because beating the Russians was deemed worth it.

I guess it won't necessarily be spent for a handwavy "but it is progress", needs more realistic goals.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#827

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:41 AM UTC

slededit wrote: post #684

jack9 wrote: post #671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Keeping humans alive on THE MOON starting from now is vastly easier to comprehend than putting a man on the moon starting from 1950 Fixed. Mars is impossible, for now. We haven't kept someone in space long enough to reach mars nor have we developed a sustainable model that's extraterrestrially tested. Mars has more problems than a moon base, not significantly less (there's a few small pros and cons but being so far…

> We haven't kept someone in space long enough to reach mars A quick google search says a trip to mars varies between 150-300 days. The longest human spaceflight exceeds that at 438 days aboard the Mir space station [1] from 1994-1995. 1. http://www.space.com/11337-human-spaceflight-records-50th-an...

They're not comparable. Life in LEO gets protection from solar radiation. Life in space, on the surface of the Moon doesn't. Life on Mars gets some protection, but it still needs to be managed.

See e.g. http://www.mars-one.com/faq/health-and-ethics/how-much-radia...

But this is pretty basic for any Mars trip. I'm sure it's been considered.

I'm not one of the nay-sayers. Musk has a good record of getting things done, although sometimes maybe he pushes a little too hard.

I certainly don't think "That's s stupid waste of time and money."

And if Musk doesn't do it, someone else will.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#828

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:44 AM UTC

grkvlt wrote: post #590

codeulike wrote: post #136

The Mars colonial fleet would depart en-masse - about 1000 ships

> As of 17 September 2016, there have been 310 manned spaceflights [...] 8 of which were sub-orbital [1] There have been 302 manned orbital launches according to [1] and from adding up the successful launches in [2] there seem to have been a total of 5057 orbital launches so far, in the 70 or so years of spaceflight. Apparently the Mars fleet needs from 3 to 5 tanker launches per manned craft, so this program will re…

[deleted]

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#829

Post by csl » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:49 AM UTC

andrepd wrote: post #822

jernfrost wrote: post #810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree, I wrote a medium article about exactly this phenomenon partly inspired by you: https://medium.com/@Jernfrost/the-crab-people-and-space-expl... I've been annoyed by this attitude for quite some time now. You see it all the time. Same deal with Tesla an Model S. Because not everybody can afford it, and because not all power is renewable an electric car like Tesla Model S seems like some sort of terrible crime. W…

Oh it's progress, no doubt. There's no question about that. What me and other skeptics argue against is these kinds of overly futuristic announcements that have no ground in reality, yet have people praising them like they are some kind of achievement by themselves. Elon Musk grandly announces: I'm going to make humans an interplanetary species. This is such a grand and far reaching goal that were it to be achieved i…

I think people get excited about his plans because he has a track record of actually delivering. Self-landing boosters on autonomous boats? A lot of people could have thought about that, but he (and his employees!) actually did it!

So when he talk about stuff like this, people have begun to pay attention.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#830

Post by rohit89 » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 10:51 AM UTC

andrepd wrote: post #822

jernfrost wrote: post #810

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree, I wrote a medium article about exactly this phenomenon partly inspired by you: https://medium.com/@Jernfrost/the-crab-people-and-space-expl... I've been annoyed by this attitude for quite some time now. You see it all the time. Same deal with Tesla an Model S. Because not everybody can afford it, and because not all power is renewable an electric car like Tesla Model S seems like some sort of terrible crime. W…

Oh it's progress, no doubt. There's no question about that. What me and other skeptics argue against is these kinds of overly futuristic announcements that have no ground in reality, yet have people praising them like they are some kind of achievement by themselves. Elon Musk grandly announces: I'm going to make humans an interplanetary species. This is such a grand and far reaching goal that were it to be achieved i…

People praise him because he has a plan in the first place and is working towards achieving it. Whether he succeeds or not, he's atleast making the effort.

This is why people get irritated when he gets criticized because the arguments boil down to "this is so ambitious and will likely fail, so why even try?"