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Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

spacex.com

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Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#621

Post by mikeash »

nixos wrote: post #534
mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

It's human nature to attacks a reality-distortion field. If he would have said "You know guys. We're going to Mars. But right now, we're working on making rockets that go up, on time, in one piece. When we finish with that, we'll show how to go. It'll be hard. Here are the technical and sociological issues involved. When we're getting close to being ready to go, we'll get working on them."

He was completely up front about how early they are in this project. He even acknowledged his overambitious timelines, saying that the one he presented was the most optimistic and probably wouldn't happen.

I can't understand how this kind of openness gets labeled "a reality-distortion field."

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#623

Post by mikeash »

guelo wrote: post #540
mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

Yes! Everybody on this commenting forum that knows about the science or has any technical questions or doubts must shut up. Only adoring reverent fawning must be allowed.

I'm not talking about those comments. I'm talking about the mindless knee-jerk "Mars sucks, you'll just die in a box" comments that contain zero substance.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#624

Post by erikpukinskis »

MaxfordAndSons wrote: post #456
ythl wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in my case, I see trying to start a Mars colony as a death trap. It's the illusion of carrying on the human race, but it's really just dooming a bunch of pioneers to a grim fate in an extremely hostile environment. I think making a south pole colony would be hard enough, let alone a Mars one.

I mean, Musk himself is very upfront about the risks involved, especially for the first few waves of colonists. And indeed, there would likely be very little personal upside for them, even if they survived the grueling initial period. But you're making a false equivocation: considering the colonists personal risks in leaving against the species shared risk in staying. If there's even a small chance of success in esta…

> If there's even a small chance of success in establishing a self-sustaining colony [...] then any degree of personal risks levied on individual colonists are "worth it" from the species level

No, the risk v reward curve has to be better than an equivalent risk v reward curve for a terrestrial species survival project to justify the mission.

I would argue that just about any PhD in epidemiology, disaster relief, or geopolitics will have a risk/reward curve far better than any Mars mission.

People keep making this argument that, absent any other information, a two planet species is more robust than a one planet species. But that's not the choice we're facing. The choice is a two-planet species versus a more prepared one-planet species.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#625

Post by thght »

I might be wrong, but I expect Elon Musk to become one of the most exceptional hero's of our times. No other billionaire is creating sustainable businesses like Tesla and Power Wall for the good of as many people as possible. He risks pretty much all he has for his ultimate dream to enable humans to start exploring the universe, and by doing so preventing the looming extinction of our species.

The amount of talent and power this guy has while being so humble is just very rare. As soon as I can afford a Tesla I will definitely buy one, not only because it's a great car, but even more to support these kind of people.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#627

Post by mikeash »

3minus1 wrote: post #539
pdabbadabba wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems unfairly negative. It may strictly be true that his ventures are "still in the early stages with uncertain futures." But the ambition and degree of difficulty of those ventures is also relevant. If you look at Tesla and SpaceX, I'd say the degree of success so far, relative to the degree of difficulty, is quite remarkable.

I don't think it's unfair. How would you view a person in the 1800s who invested a large fortune in electricity or automobiles prior to certain critical technological innovations that made those things practical. He had the right idea and wanted to move mankind forward but he was 50 years too early. Was he foolhardy? Was he arrogant? Was he admirable? I don't know. Mostly though I think he's not worth giving much of…

I could buy that a few years ago, but EV adoption is taking off and some big automakers are now chasing Tesla's lead. Even if Tesla keels over and fails, their impact will be felt for a long time. Similarly, SpaceX kickstarted a new age in space launches by showing that the old ways really could be improved, getting reusability out from the long shadow of the Space Shuttle, and getting private companies into the game as more than extensions of the government. Like Tesla, they've made a big impact now even if they collapse.

The hero worship should be pretty simple to understand: he's built (with the efforts of thousands of people working for him, of course, it's a huge group effort) amazing things. Every time I get in my car, I marvel at it. He's landed an orbital rocket on a barge in the ocean. Several times! Even if somehow these things somehow fade into absolutely nothing, they're amazing accomplishments.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#628

Post by nixos »

mikeash wrote: post #621
nixos wrote: post #534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's human nature to attacks a reality-distortion field. If he would have said "You know guys. We're going to Mars. But right now, we're working on making rockets that go up, on time, in one piece. When we finish with that, we'll show how to go. It'll be hard. Here are the technical and sociological issues involved. When we're getting close to being ready to go, we'll get working on them."

He was completely up front about how early they are in this project. He even acknowledged his overambitious timelines, saying that the one he presented was the most optimistic and probably wouldn't happen. I can't understand how this kind of openness gets labeled "a reality-distortion field."

I don't know, probably it's the blender videos pushing the wider internet audience into it (so it's not all his fault).

While he's going good, and is launching rockets, but right now he's behind OldSpace in doing what he's actually doing - launching rockets.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#630

Post by boznz »

gkya wrote: post #617
ythl wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't worry. If anything, space will become the graveyard for the rich and powerful once they realize how poorly the human body fares in high-radiation, low gravity environments.

Oh, at last, a bit of reality... I'm sad that maybe we'll have to watch hundreds of people die for a completely unrealistic endeavor, and they'll never have a grave for their loving ones to visit.

Reality check. EVERYONE who signs up to this will know the very real risks involved.
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