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Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

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Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#201

Post by r00fus »

cscurmudgeon wrote: post #183
mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

Simple. They are jealous they are on the sidelines.

It's part and parcel of the zero-sum game mentality. It's what drives Wall St.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#202

Post by mrspeaker »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #73
tcoppi wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Throughout human history, there has always been a new/unexplored land to emigrate to for new opportunities or to escape political persecution. Nowdays there is nowhere left for someone in the West to emigrate to that is not substantially the same or worse. Mars and the stars could potentially offer that opportunity, which might be why some people are excited.

Why not the oceans? Much easier to populate than Mars.

He did kind of address this by saying "being multi-planetary is good in case of apocalyptic event"... it's about having an offsite backup.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#203

Post by AndrewKemendo »

mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like.

Right. And as what appears to be the loudest voice in this discussion, it's also my prerogative to advocate for what I believe to be a better allocation of resources.

Lets not pretend there is not competition for attention, capital and enthusiasm for vision based projects. That I advocate for one over another - in competition - is exactly what is supposed to happen.So, bring the merits of both and have the conversation.

Just saying yay this thing is credulous and doesn't actually evaluate what are possible futures.

In my case I advocate for Transhumanism and AGI as our solutions to his existential questions and promote those (as does Musk actually but to a lesser extent).

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#204

Post by david-given »

anexprogrammer wrote: post #144
maerF0x0 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This brings up a good point. Why mars first? Why not a moon colony first?

To me the moon would be the obvious place to start, especially as the NASA plans I've seen for Mars have been based on using a space station at a Earth-Lunar Lagrange point, and associated moonbase, as ideal staging post. That and I might one day afford a ticket. I guess direct to Mars is sexier. :) (I'm behind live too.)

I agree --- Mars is a pit. It's a barren desert at the bottom of a great big hole.

Its biggest, and perhaps only, advantage is that it has an atmosphere, and gas is so much easier to deal with for ISRU than anything else, as you don't need to mine it: just open a valve and suck it in. I notice Musk's ISRU plan is to mine ice; I do wonder how he's going to do that, as it won't be easy.

But... you know what... if you can get to Mars, you can get anywhere.

If you can get to Mars, getting to the Moon is so trivial you might as well build and maintain a base there just to test the equipment.

If you can get to Mars, you can get to near-Earth asteroids with enough spare capacity to take a whole a mining plant in tow.

If you can get to Mars, Ceres is only 400 m/s further away. (And Ceres is interesting.)

If you can get to Mars, then the outer solar system is reachable (with preparation and some disposable boosters).

If you can get to Mars, anyone who can afford a IST ship can have a space station.

So, hell yes, let's go to Mars. (And I'll cheerfully wave goodbye to you from my ice-mining cometary habitat.)

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#205

Post by vkou »

Gravityloss wrote: post #83
Rezo wrote: post #2

SpaceX Interplanetary Transport System: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qo78R_yYFA

Unconventional design. The rocket looks very large and they mention 120 million newtons takeoff thrust so the weight is about 10 million kg, 3 times Saturn V size. The first stage lands back on launch stool, the tanker stage is put on top of it and it launches again. This implies a relatively fast turnaround. Both the second stage and the tanker seem to have complete heat shields and stub wings and ability to re-ente…

The 30 km/s is speed relative to the Sun, at a half-way point between Earth and Mars.

Most of it, you would get for free, since the ship is launched from the Earth, which is already moving at ~30 km/s. The delta-v cost is much less then that.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#206

Post by M_Grey »

nitrogen wrote: post #197
M_Grey wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think anytime someone plays to the deeply held hopes and dreams of a given community, especially ones that are related to long-term survival, "destiny" and the like... be very very careful and very very skeptical. That's not to say you should be depressive and cynical, but you should ask questions and seek motives. We're really not close to being a "multiplanetary species", and the major bottlenecks have nothing to…

That really is no excuse however for cheering and weeping with joy when the guy selling the rockets points to the stars and says, "Humanity's future!" Why not? Just because he's selling something doesn't mean his actions aren't useful.

I said a lot of other things in that post which answers that question, before the one sentence you decided to reply to.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#207

Post by facetube »

astazangasta wrote: post #124
andars wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Redundancy. A bad backup is better than none at all. In addition, because I believe it is worthwhile to attempt difficult things to see what we can achieve. Inspiration is a valid goal.

Inspiration is a tautological goal. "Why do we do X? Because it is inspiring!" only works if we find X worthy for some reason. How about: real goals that substantively improve life on Earth?

Do you think our space exploration efforts so far haven't improved life on Earth?

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#208

Post by ncallaway »

optforfon wrote: post #194
cbau wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk just addressed this. Mars has an atmosphere of CO2 and Nitrogen, so we can grow plants, a day length similar to Earth's (24.5 hours), and is larger.

It has an "atmosphere" It's 0.00628 atm according to Wikipedia. That's effectively a vacuum. You can't have liquid water on Mars. So you can grow plants in some kind of transparent pressurized place... Just like on the Moon.. or on a space station

You can pressurize a chamber using the thin atmosphere, rather than being restricted to the gasses you bring with you.

You can use ISRU and atmosphere resource extraction to generate rocket fuel on the surface of mars, rather than being restricted to the rocket fuel you bring with you.

Ultimately, the answer is Mars has the necessary resources and when you look into the details just makes more sense and is easier.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#209

Post by winter_blue »

cbau wrote: post #110
maerF0x0 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This brings up a good point. Why mars first? Why not a moon colony first?

Musk just addressed this. Mars has an atmosphere of CO2 and Nitrogen, so we can grow plants, a day length similar to Earth's (24.5 hours), and is larger.

> and is larger

Mars is much smaller than Earth. From Wikipedia: "Mars is less dense than Earth, having about 15% of Earth's volume and 11% of Earth's mass, resulting in about 38% of Earth's surface gravity."

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#210

Post by kchoudhu »

justrossthings wrote: post #101

Required reading: https://www.amazon.com/Red-Mars-Trilogy-Stanley-Robinson/dp/...

I just finished reading these books for what seems like the millionth time, and Mr. Musk hasn't even begun to answer the questions they raise. What is the legal structure going to be on the 1MM person colony? Who gets to go? What are the transplants allowed to do there? Who rules? Who do the rulers answer to? Are we going to Terraform Mars? If yes, under whose auspices and with what restrictions?

FTR: this is Elon Musk's show and I don't trust his ability to keep his pet project from turning into a corporate dystopia.

Edited to add: Guys, I'm not against Mars exploration and colonization at scale -- I just want us to put our best foot forward. That means not rushing the process, and doing it in a democratic and non-chaotic manner.

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